How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2024?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
49%
Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive
Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive
More than 150,000 but fewer than 250,000
More than 400,000 but fewer than 600,000
Between 100,000 and 150,000, inclusive
600,000 or more

Question description

The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts96
Forecasters37

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Resizable preview:
49%
Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive
32%
More than 150,000 but fewer than 250,000
13%
More than 400,000 but fewer than 600,000
4%
Between 100,000 and 150,000, inclusive
1%
Fewer than 100,000
Last updated: 2024-05-17
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 96
Forecasters: 37

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