Will Republika Srpska declare independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina before 1 January 2025?

Leaders of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority political unit of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have threatened secession over the years as tensions within the country's political structure continue (Deutsche Welle, Anadolu Agency, Newsweek, Sarajevo Times). The exact nature of a declaration of independence is immaterial so long as an official governmental organ of Republika Srpska makes the declaration that it is free and independent of Bosnia and Herzegovina. International recognition will be immaterial, and any claims related to the Brčko District will be immaterial (Guardian). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.