Will Brazil reach net zero deforestation before 2031?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
19%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated 3.1 million square km were located in Brazil. Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the PRODES survey on the amount of annual deforestation in Amazônia Legal, the nine Brazillian states which contain the Brazillian Amazon Forest. Deforestation in the Amazon fell from 27,700 km(^{2}) in 2004 to 4,500 km(^{2}), and has since risen under the Jair Bolsonaro Administration.

Brazil also contains the Atlantic Forest, 92% of which was estimated to be within Brazil in 2017. While an estimated 17% of the Amazon has been deforested since European contact, 92% of the Atlantic Forest has been deforested, from 1,300,000 km(^{2}) to 100,000 km(^{2}) in 2020.

In 2008, delegates from Brazil joined 66 other countries in pledging support for the World Wide Fund for Nature's goal to reach net zero deforestation by 2020. In April 2021, Bolsonaro pledged to US President Joe Biden to cut illegal deforestation and reach net zero deforestation by 2030.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts104

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Resizable preview:
19%
Unlikely

Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated 3.1 million square km were located in Brazil. Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the PRODES survey on the amount of annual deforestation in Amazônia Legal, the...

Last updated: 2024-05-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 104

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