Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

As large language models (LLMs) gain more impressive capabilities, there are increasing fears within the AI alignment community as well as the general public that these models could be misused to cause severely negative outcomes. While companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models closed, Meta has made its Llama 2 model open source.

This question asks if any LLMs as powerful as GPT-4 will be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025. There are multiple ways this could occur, both legal (open-source) and illegal (leaked models available on the dark web).

Because there is no perfect way to compare the capabilities of various LLMs, for the purpose of this question, an LLM will be determined to be as powerful as GPT-4 by a panel of experts.

Here is a paper that OpenAI released that discusses GPT-4's capabilities.