17%
Unlikely

This is a market on whether the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) will designate any additional COVID-19 variant as a "Variant of Concern (VOC)" by July 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if ECDC...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Forecasts: 218
Liquidity: $3.8k
71%
Likely

The World Health Organization publishes a list of Variants of Concern (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added Omicron to this classification, bringing the total number of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 229
20%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 211
13%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256
70%
Likely

In September 2021, the UK's health service started its "booster" campaign, offering third jabs of the Covid vaccine to all adults in the UK.

But will Covid vaccine boosters become annual events, like flu jabs? Other forecasters have asked that...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 193
24%
Unlikely

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is thought to be more transmissible...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107
44%
About Even

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 46
52%
About Even

The World Health Organization has (as of January 2022) identified several variants of SARS-CoV-2, 5 of which are designated as variants of concern. This designation indicates that the variant is more serious than previous variants of the virus, in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35
15%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
16%
Unlikely

Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave.

As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181.

***Will the 7-day moving average...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 64
46%
About Even

Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave.

As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181.

***Will the 7-day moving average...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39
15%
Unlikely

Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39
33%
Unlikely

Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
33%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 10,000 in the US for any day ranging from April 6, 2022 to December 31, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid..

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Forecasts: 159
Liquidity: $1.4k
5%
Very unlikely

In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe hepatitis in young children in which the cause is of unknown origin.

In an outbreak report on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 55
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Omicron XE is a recombination of the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron strains BA.1 and BA.2. It has been detected first in the UK on January 19, 2022, then in Brazil, Australia, Thailand, India, and Israel. 1,125 cases of Omicron XE have been identified in the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 195
45%
About Even

As of December 7, 2021, GISAID, a global sequencing database reports that the variant of concern (VOC) called Delta by the World Health Organisation is the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2. In the seven days to December 5, 2021, 6,160 of 6,371 (98%)...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 669
6%
Very unlikely

In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the German Emergency Act, changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 239
25%
Unlikely

Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to Our World In Data.

This figure has been widely questioned, e..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 368
88%
Likely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?

As the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant is spreading globally, Our World In Data...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 213
76%
Likely

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

On 19 November 2021, FDA authorized COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 137

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