Two important types of COVID therapeutics are monoclonal antibodies and antivirals.

As of late 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had authorized or approved the use of two monoclonal antibodies (Bebtelovimab and Evusheld) and three...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 75
20%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 211
52%
About Even

Many COVID vaccine possibilities are being explored, including nasal drops. Some have speculated that there may be a high bar for new vaccine approvals. The authors point out that (1) a new vaccine would likely need to prove it is more effective than...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 45
13%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256
45%
About Even

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 66
52%
About Even

The World Health Organization has (as of January 2022) identified several variants of SARS-CoV-2, 5 of which are designated as variants of concern. This designation indicates that the variant is more serious than previous variants of the virus, in...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 51
75%
Likely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?

There have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
15%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe hepatitis in young children in which the cause is of unknown origin.

In an outbreak report on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 170
58%
About Even

Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?

To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:

According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of Scott...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 120
10%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247

As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.

When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?

This question resolves on the first day for which the UK government's...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 407

On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern regarding the COVID-19 in China. They declared that the outbreak had become a pandemic on 2021-03-11 . The declarations are typically renewed...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 162

In the US, a public health emergency (PHE) can be declared in response to a disease/disorder, significant infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack:

The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 107

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) uses two data sources for information on COVID cases: aggregate count data and in-line level (patient-level data). According to CDC, the differences between these are as follows:

-...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 72

Currently in the U.S., COVID-19 vaccines are purchased by the federal government and distributed in partnership with state, tribal, and territorial health departments. However, in recent months the U.S. federal government has been making preparations...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 54

With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving "herd immunity" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)

It is, however, not...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 155

According to World Health Organization data, there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The 7-day total of...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 412

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) is North America's largest transportation network, serving a population of 15.3 million people across a 5,000-square-mile travel area surrounding New York City through Long Island, southeastern New York...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 12

Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as Israel.

Sufficiently widespread vaccination (and natural antibodies from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 129

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple novel variants have emerged as a result of continued evolution of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 166

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