< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Two important types of COVID therapeutics are monoclonal antibodies and antivirals.

As of late 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had authorized or approved the use of two monoclonal antibodies (Bebtelovimab and Evusheld) and three...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 183
14%
Unlikely

On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO updated its tracking system and working definitions for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern to take to account for the dominance and variance of the Omicron variant and its sublineages. The new definitions mean that Omicron...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 243
20%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 211
50%
About Even

Many COVID vaccine possibilities are being explored, including nasal drops. Some have speculated that there may be a high bar for new vaccine approvals. The authors point out that (1) a new vaccine would likely need to prove it is more effective than...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 142
13%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256
43%
About Even

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111
52%
About Even

The World Health Organization has (as of January 2022) identified several variants of SARS-CoV-2, 5 of which are designated as variants of concern. This designation indicates that the variant is more serious than previous variants of the virus, in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 109
70%
Likely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?

There have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 191
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 425
10%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247

As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 407

On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern regarding the COVID-19 in China. They declared that the outbreak had become a pandemic on 2021-03-11 . The declarations are typically renewed...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 301

The United States is one of a handful of countries to still prohibit entry of unvaccinated foreign nationals. The vaccine requirement for foreign nationals was imposed by President Biden on October 25, 2021 by presidential proclamation and has no...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 12
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 170
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 412

Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as Israel.

Sufficiently widespread vaccination (and natural antibodies from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 140

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple novel variants have emerged as a result of continued evolution of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 291

Nobel Prizes are awarded each Autumn in Peace, Literature, Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine & Physiology, or some of those categories.

Accomplishments relating to global pandemics may be recognized in any appropriate category. Prize citations in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 168

Related question

  • When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 260
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188

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