Metaforecast

How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.

GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell moved $152 million in 2019.

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 24

When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 82

In 2027, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?

The Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, especially children, from dying from malaria.

GiveWell are a charity that...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 32

How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 89

Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a "top charity" before 2027?

43%

About Even

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 14 charity areas including breastfeeding promotion.

The following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic:

“The World Health...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 124

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

35%

Unlikely

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 151

In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 40

At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?

44%

About Even

According to GiveWell's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a single study, which showed large economic effects which were present a...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 209

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Likely

Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups <a...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 208

GiveWell makes another grant to IGI

35%

Unlikely

Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021

★★☆☆☆

GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy

Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity

10%

Unlikely