> 99%
5.0% or more
< 1%
Less than 0.0%
< 1%
Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive
< 1%
More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%
< 1%
Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 2220
Forecasters: 922
4%
Very unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 3%
Shares vol.: 25k
17%
Unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 3%
Shares vol.: 17k
39%
Unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 40k
3%
Very unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 17k
9%
Very unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 16k
3%
Very unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★☆☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 5.5k
4%
Very unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 24k
20%
Unlikely

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market...

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 24k
94%
Very likely

*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 233