After years of failing to reach the European Central Bank's (ECB's) inflation target of 2%, estimated November 2021 inflation figures for in the eurozone reached an all-time high in the 25 years since the data have been compiled, an annual rate of change of 4.9% ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/inflation-euro-zone-november-2021.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-chief-declines-to-say-if-inflation-will-hit-target-next-year/), [ECB](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat for "Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)" ([Eurostat](https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&amp;lang=en)). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for October 2021 (2021M10) was 4.1%.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Less than 1.0%

Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive

More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%

Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive

More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%

5.0% or more

What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in October 2022?

As in many other countries, inflation has been on the rise in Russia in 2021 ([Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/11/19/rising-inflation-gives-boost-to-russias-discount-retailers-a75592), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-24/faster-russia-inflation-adds-to-case-for-big-hike-as-ruble-drops)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data for September 2021 when monthly IMF data for September 2022 are first available, expected by November 2022 ([IMF](https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015892)). On the page, change "Country" on the upper left of the page to "Russian Federation," then see "Consumer Price Index, All items." For August 2021 (2021M08), the annual rate of inflation was 6.69617%, calculated by dividing the index figure for August 2021 (2021M08) by the index figure for August 2020 (2020M08) and subtracting 1.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Lower than 3.0%

Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive

Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%

Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive

Higher than 9.0%

What will be Russia's annual rate of inflation in September 2022?

As of Issuance, the data is expected to be released on or after February 10, 2023. Please see WCPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. . The resolution source is: WCPI-EURO-2022 (undefined)

Will inflation in Euro Area be above 3% in 2022?

At time of Issuance, the data is expected to be released on or after January 17, 2023.  Please see WCPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. . The resolution source is: WCPI-CN-2022 (undefined)

Will inflation in China be above 1% in 2022?

Will inflation in Euro Area be above 4% in 2022?

Will inflation in China be above 2% in 2022?

Will inflation in Euro Area be above 5% in 2022?

Will inflation in China be above 3% in 2022?

[The Federal Reserve has announced raising interest rates](https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/inflation-could-lead-fed-to-hike-rates-more-than-4-times/) for the Dollar in 2022 in response to rising inflation. However, it's corresponding institution the European Central Bank (ECB) has not. The yearly inflation was nearly as high in December 2021 in the EU with [5%](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi) as in the US with [7%](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi). The [ECB considers the inflation a temporary phenomenon](https://www.ft.com/content/8e2036b9-c02e-45e8-87d8-c9d3362415f1) and expects the inflation rate to fall below the target rate of 2% within months without raising interest rates for the Euro.

There is political pressure to keep the interest rates for the Euro low [because of the risk that some EU member default on their debt](https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/the-euro-is-facing-a-make-or-break-year). There is counter-pressure to keep the Euro and Dollar exchange rate stable for global trade though.

***Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** If the ECB raises their "Fixed rate tenders Fixed rate" higher than 0.00 before January 1, 2023.  This policy must take effect in 2022; an announcement to do so in 2023 is not sufficient. The official source is [the ECB's website](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html).
[FRED provides the same data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBMRRFR) with more interactive interface.

[fine-print]
The ECB also publishes a "deposit facility" and a "marginal lending facility" rate in the short-term. These are not relevant for this question.

In case the ECB does not exist anymore and has not raised the interest rate, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.
[/fine-print]

Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?