Some Impactful Metaculus Questions

Created by: Nuño Sempere

Taken from this post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated

28%
Unlikely

No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 345
21%
Unlikely

In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have 17 goals of which the first is “To...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 262
37%
Unlikely

A synthetic biological weapon is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 298

Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism (Wikipedia). The first gene-edited babies—Lulu and Nana—were reportedly born in October 2018.

***How many...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 217
8%
Very unlikely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 280
17%
Unlikely

In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled "The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good." (They also wrote an abridged version to be published in the Proceedings of AIES. Also, fun aside: Metaculus'...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 157

Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 182
51%
About Even

Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 513
61%
Likely

This question has been posed by Rethink Priorities, a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.

European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of "enriched" cages for egg-laying...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 205

The International Math Olympiad is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 425
30%
Unlikely

Consider figure 15 from this paper.

Some people (arguably the authors of this paper) predict that as we scale models past GPT-3's size (the 10^11 parameter learning curve, models with parameter count X trained on X elapsed tokens will score close to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 72
26%
Unlikely

The People's Republic of China claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news recently claimed that the threat of China...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 274
51%
About Even

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 158
20%
Unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?

  • Will there be a US-China war by 2035?

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

For the purposes of this...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 125
15%
Unlikely

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as defined by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.”

Such systems, colloquially known...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 73
55%
About Even

Embryo screening is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 355
59%
About Even

Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a 92% chance according to a current Metaculus question. There is considerable speculation that Xi will...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 187
98%
Virtually certain

Wikipedia states:

"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 504
41%
About Even

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.

As far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:

  • The John D. and...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 87
5%
Very unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

The United Nations states:

"The Treaty on the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 103

The Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, especially children, from dying from malaria.

GiveWell are a charity that...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 44

Germany's recently elected coalition government announced (in November 2021) more aggressive pledges to add renewable energy to their electricity grid, pledging to power 80% of their electricity demand with renewables, and pledging to phase out coal...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
71%
Likely

The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement in November 2020, following an announcement in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw by President Trump and giving formal notice of its intention to leave the agreement in November...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107

From the abstract of Pang et al.:

To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA dataset with context passages in English that have an average length of about 5,000 tokens, much...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 72

From the abstract of Pang et al.:

To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA dataset with context passages in English that have an average length of about 5,000 tokens, much...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 30

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