When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
35%
Between January 2023 and March 2023
Between January 2023 and March 2023
Between April 2023 and June 2023
Not before October 2023
Between July 2023 and September 2023
Between October 2022 and December 2022

Question description

The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2022, but there are concerns that conditions may deteriorate as the Fed raises interest rates and recession fears rise (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts216
Forecasters41

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Resizable preview:
35%
Between January 2023 and March 2023
34%
Between April 2023 and June 2023
16%
Not before October 2023
14%
Between July 2023 and September 2023
1%
Between October 2022 and December 2022
Last updated: 2023-01-29
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 216
Forecasters: 41

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