How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from July 2024 through September 2024 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
38%
At least 550,000, but fewer than 700,000
At least 550,000, but fewer than 700,000
At least 400,000, but fewer than 550,000
At least 700,000, but fewer than 850,000
More than 850,000
At least 250,000, but fewer than 400,000

Question description

The continued influx of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has become a major issue in the 2024 US presidential campaign (NPR, BBC, Yahoo [Fox News]). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of July 2024 through September 2024 once data for September 2024 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar July 2023 and September 2023, CBP reported a total of 686,177 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here. NOTE 10 May 2024: The question is concerned with July through September 2024, or Q3 2024.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts39
Forecasters14

Capture

Resizable preview:
38%
At least 550,000, but fewer than 700,000
28%
At least 400,000, but fewer than 550,000
26%
At least 700,000, but fewer than 850,000
4%
More than 850,000
3%
At least 250,000, but fewer than 400,000
Last updated: 2024-07-15
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 39
Forecasters: 14

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