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Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
22%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

"We" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc.

Control the weather refers to being able to cause every climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe.

For example, a necessary, but not sufficient, condition would be that, if it rains on one day per week in Paris, then we can decide to make it rain on Monday, and not on any day for the rest of the week, whether or not that would have been the case without our intervention.

See also: @/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-f47455a10483

@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat (This one)

@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-ae971df8b4cd

And for a market on a much stronger kind of control over the weather: @/Bayesian/will-we-have-total-control-over-the

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters56
VolumeM2.7k

Capture #

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Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-07

"We" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc.

Control the weather refers to being able to cause every climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe.

For example, a necessary, but not...

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M2.7k

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