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Will Melania Trump file for divorce from Donald Trump in 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
6%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fgdlay/mmw_melania_will_file_for_divorce_in_2025/

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

Melania Trump officially files for divorce from Donald Trump in any U.S. court during the calendar year 2025

The filing is publicly confirmed by reputable news sources or official court records

The market will resolve as "No" if:

Melania Trump does not file for divorce from Donald Trump during the calendar year 2025

The Trumps remain legally married throughout 2025

The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

Donald Trump passes away before or during 2025

Legal proceedings preventing a potential divorce filing are ongoing at the end of 2025

Resolution Sources:

Official court records

Statements from official representatives of the Trump family

Reports from major, reputable news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, New York Times, Wall Street Journal)

Closing Date: This market will close for trading on December 31, 2025, or when an official divorce filing is confirmed, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:

The outcome is based solely on Melania Trump filing for divorce, not on the completion of divorce proceedings

Any reconciliation after a filing, if it occurs within 2025, does not change the "Yes" outcome

The reason for the divorce filing (if any is given) is not relevant to the resolution of this market

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters92
VolumeM12k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Melania Trump file for divorce from Donald Trump in 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-04

꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!

https://www.reddit..

Last updated: 2025-06-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 92
Volume: M12k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-cxrch7cuff" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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