How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000))

Metaculus
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97%
Virtually certain
Yes

Question description

The Russo-Ukraine conflict intensified with an invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Reports vary widely on the number of military deaths for both Russia and Ukraine, and accurate, up-to-date information is often difficult or impossible to obtain as fighting on the ground continues.

Will at least 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

This question will resolve as the number of Ukrainian soldiers or military personnel which have been killed while in service during the Russo-Ukrainian war, during the period from February 24, 2022 to January 1, 2024. The question will resolve as Yes if the number of deaths is greater than the following thresholds, and No if the number is fewer.

"Military personnel" may include members of the Ukranian armed forces, national guard, and volunteer fighters.

To determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider reports by the Ukrainian and Russian governments, other governments such as the US or the UN, and credible media reports and experts in the conflict. Resolution will be determined by information available by March 1, 2024 (or earlier, if information is sufficiently clear).

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Virtually certain

The Russo-Ukraine conflict intensified with an invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Reports vary widely on the number of military deaths for both Russia and Ukraine, and accurate, up-to-date information is often difficult or impossible to obtain...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 593

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