Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥))

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
12%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.

The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:

| currency | exchange rate (USD) | | -- | -- | | European Union Euro € | 1.04778 | | Indonesian Rupiah Rp | 0.000067007 | | Thai Baht | 0.028306 | | Russian Ruble ₽ | 0.0182412 | | Turkish Lira ₺ | 0.0598871 | | Polish złoty ł | 0.222959 | | Brazillian Real R$ | 0.190350 | | Mexican Peso $ | 0.0497329 | | Argentine Peso $ | 0.00798582 | | Saudi Riyal SAR | 0.266667 | | Iranian Rial IRR | 0.0000236657 | | Egyptian Pound £E | 0.0531892 | | Indian Rupee ₹ | 0.0126620 | | Pakistani Rupee ₨ | 0.00488955 | | Bangladeshi Taka ৳ | 0.0106850 | | Nigerian Naira ₦ | 0.00240808 | | Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ | 0.149281 |

(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.)

Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022?

Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022.

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PlatformMetaculus
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12%
Unlikely

This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.

The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:

| currency...

Last updated: 2022-11-17
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 89

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