Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?

In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving de facto independence as the unrecognized Checen Republic of Ichkeria. This status continued until Chechnya was nominally reunited with the Russian Federation in mid-2000, though only with the aid of former jihadist defectors who were granted considerable autonomy.

As of October 2022, Russia is locked in a losing conflict with Ukraine and conducting a chaotic and uneven mobilization. There were reports that certain regions, such as Buryatia, had been subject to harsh, disproportionate, and discriminatory levels of call-up even before partial mobilization was announced.