Belarus established relations with the European Union after gaining independence in 1991, but these relations deteriorated after Alexander Lukashenko became the leader in 1994. The EU has condemned Lukashenko's government for its authoritarian and anti-democratic practices and imposed sanctions on the country. Despite a slight improvement in relations in 2008, the 2010 Belarusian presidential election led to mass demonstrations and arrests, which led to new targeted sanctions from the EU, similarly to the restrictive measures imposed on Belarus following the use of violence against peaceful protestors after the 2020 Belarus presidential election. In 2021, Belarus suspended its participation in the EU Eastern Partnership, further straining the relationship. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus’ support for Russia, the EU imposed a number on sanctions against Belarus, further deteriorating the relationship. However, in early 2023, an internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office was leaked that outlined a detailed plan of Russia taking full control of Belarus by 2030, the existence of which Lukashenko acknowledged.

Due to the geographical position of Belarus, bordering Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine, its alignment to the EU or Russia over the next decade may become a crucial geopolitical point of tension. While it currently does not seem likely that Belarus will shift westwards and aim to become a member of the European Union, any such shift would have profound geopolitical consequences.