Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
12%Unlikely
Yes

Question description

As reported here by Time, China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight. The claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights. Let's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. Resolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. "Major Chinese city" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts125

Capture

12%Unlikely

As reported here by Time, China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight. The claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an...

Last updated: 2022-05-23
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 125