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Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
4%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share. Simultaneously, advances in space technology have given rise to the concept of space-based power generation, which proposes capturing solar energy in space where the sun always shines and transmitting it to Earth.

Space-based solar power (SBSP) theoretically offers an unlimited, constant, and environmentally friendly power source, free from the intermittency problems of earth-based renewable energy. However, its practical implementation faces significant challenges today, including technical issues, high costs, and the absence of a regulatory framework.

Given these circumstances, it raises the intriguing question: Will there be a year in the next 50 years when the percentage of renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based power generation systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems? The answer could greatly influence global energy policy, technological investment, and environmental sustainability.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts42

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Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share....

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 42

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