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Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

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On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1592

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Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1592

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