The original wager for this question appeared here and was made January 1, 2021.

Caplan writes:

I’ve already seen George Mason University badly mistreat non-conformist professors. Should I expect the same to happen to me? I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’m not greatly worried either. I’m definitely not going to self-censor to protect myself. Yet quite a few people tell me that I’m in grave danger. One of them, Todd Proebsting, a C.S. professor at the University of Arizona, has offered to bet me.

To be clear, Todd wishes me well. He does not want me to suffer mistreatment; he merely predicts it. Here are the terms on which we have agreed.

I bet Todd Proebsting $50 at even odds that I will NOT be "clearly mistreated" by George Mason University before January 1, 2031.