Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

George Hotz, also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company comma.ai.

Recently GeoHot appeared to announce the possibility that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.

Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?

This question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.

Product release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.

The product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public.

Beta or development hardware does not resolve.

Resolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts109

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20%
Unlikely

George Hotz, also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company comma.ai.

Recently GeoHot appeared to announce the possibility that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia..

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 109

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