Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
5%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

From The Week,

Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.

He also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”

Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?

This question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2, 2023 (Pacific Time),

  • Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup

  • Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023

"Credible media" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts146

Capture

Resizable preview:
5%
Very unlikely

From The Week,

Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 146

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