Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?

Metaculus
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Yes

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The Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction, or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.

Alphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called Isomorphic Labs to focus on the drug discovery process.

CASP15 is currently scheduled to take place April-August 2022.

Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?

This will resolve positively if an algorithm developed by a subsidiary of Alphabet (such as DeepMind or Isomorphic Labs) wins the CASP15 group rankings for Regular Targets, or whichever name is given to the general/overall category. The preferred source will be the official CASP website. If there is no comparable "general category" compared to CASP14 and prior, or if there is no singular winner, the question will resolve ambiguously.

This question will resolve negatively if the competition is held but no Alphabet company competes, or they don't win. If CASP15 is not held in 2022, or overall rankings are not decided, this resolves as ambiguous. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the contest begins.

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The Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction, or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 185

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