Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
22%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to Our World In Data.

This figure has been widely questioned, e.g. by Forbes and ABC news, with suggestions ranging from true numbers in the low 10,000s to over 1,000,000.

Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?

If Our World In Data report a cumulative total of over 50,000 deaths in China by the end of 2022, this should resolve positively, otherwise it should resolve negatively.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts386

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22%
Unlikely

Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to Our World In Data.

This figure has been widely questioned, e..

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 386

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