Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
4%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

This question will resolve positively if, between February 24, 2022 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that >100 Russian ground troops have entered another country. From the statement, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders and without permission of the currently recognized government of that country or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from Feb 24, 2022 to Jan 1, 2023.

For the purpose of this question, the addition of troops to Transnistria will not trigger positive resolution as troops have been present in that region since before the beginning of the recent conflict in February 2022.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts2623

Capture

Resizable preview:
4%
Very unlikely

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

This question will resolve positively if, between February 24, 2022 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 2623

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