Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

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Yes

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To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying.

Russia's invasion on Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in 15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths. According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to 50,000 civilian deaths.

Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

This question will resolve positively if more than 25,000 people die in the Russo-Ukrainian War during 2022. Deaths may include civilian and military casualties, and should count deaths whose primary cause was from combat with opposing forces. If other countries become involved in this conflict then deaths involving those countries will be included. This question will resolve based on information available on March 1, 2023.

To determine the number of deaths, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting).

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Number of forecasts1994

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Last updated: 2022-08-08
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 1994

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