H5N1 avian influenza has recently begun killing thousands of mammals in South America, and mammalian cases are being reported in cases in the US (UC Davis, Science.org, KFF News). Human cases are rare and are generally suspected to have originated...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions...
Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (AP, US News & World Report). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would...
Another question in this tournament asks Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?.
Denkenberger & Pearce (2016) write:
"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the...
In September 2023, the Swiss parliament passed the "Federal Law on a Secure Power Supply with Renewable Energies," which was designed to make transition to renewable energy sources easier, though aspects of the legislation raised the ire of...
There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking...
You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.
A nuclear exchange could cause a nuclear winter – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would according to some...
As Houthi forces continue firing missiles and drones at commercial ships off the coast of Yemen, the US and allies may further escalate their role and presence in the country (US Dept. of Defense, Al-Monitor, Atlantic Council). For the purposes of...
In early April 2024, Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of the cryptocurrency firm Ripple, said stated in an interview that he predicts that the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market will double by the end of 2024 (CNBC). The outcome will be...
Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in...
Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a global biological catastrophe, an...
Sam Altman is back as a CEO in Open AI, but there is a new board, investigation and many open questions about his behavior.
- Washington Post: OpenAI leaders warned of abusive behavior before Sam Altman’s ouster
- New York Times: Inside OpenAI’s...
Right-to-die advocates in the UK continue to push for the legalization of euthanasia, assisted dying and/or assisted suicide (BBC, Guardian, Parliament.uk - Royal Assent). The date the legislation would take effect is immaterial, and limits on who...
Today, many companies offer remote work from home or part-time hybrid work from home (Fortune). Following the Covid 19 pandemic, many large companies has continued to offer fully remote or part-time hybrid remote work options.
The Flex Index tracks...
At present, the leading answer, by a significant margin, to Eliezer Yudkowsky's Manifold Markets question, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?", is "Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent...
The original offer to wager appeared here on June 10, 2015 at even odds.
Caplan writes:
Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:
“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their...
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