The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Quad</a> countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Tensions <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508..

.

This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.

Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK,...

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by 13 UN member states, and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. Opinion...

Currently, the political status of The Republic of China (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.

Related questions on Metaculus:

• Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
• If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

With tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point,...

From CNN,

President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.

The White...

The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a...

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This...

Related questions on Metaculus:

• Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

• If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

• If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan...

The Republic of China has full diplomatic relations with 13 UN member states as of this writing. Those countries are: Belize, Eswatini, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions...

China has repeatedly asserted a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The tense relations between the two countries has led to fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first...

During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried...

The relationship between the United States, Taiwan, and China has been increasingly tense, particularly in the context of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. These sales are seen as a crucial aspect of Taiwan's defense strategy against potential Chinese...

2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Graham Allison and The Brookings Institute have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering Taiwan.

Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (News.com.au, Newsweek, Taipei Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and...

From CNBC,

Russia is facing “economic oblivion” in the long term because of international sanctions and the flight of businesses, several economists have said.

The International Monetary Fund last week upgraded Russia’s gross domestic product...

The People's Republic of China claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news recently claimed that the threat of China...