Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?

Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (AP, US News & World Report). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would not be necessary for resolution. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). "Roughly even chance" or "roughly even odds" without an explicit statement that the probability is greater than 50% would not count. For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.