Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
4%
Very unlikely
Yes

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China has repeatedly asserted a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The tense relations between the two countries has led to fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
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4%
Very unlikely

China has repeatedly asserted a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The tense relations between the two countries has led to fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Last updated: 2024-05-05
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 716

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