Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.

He left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.

Reportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies.

Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?

Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.

[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. 

However, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.

Scientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.

Hortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),

> “Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology," Dodo says. "In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S."

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

This question is taken from [this bet](https://longbets.org/887/) on the website longbets.org. Yarrow Bouchard made the prediction, and
Michael P Dierickx challenged the prediction.

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.

Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.

Legal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment.

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life

> longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

Global food prices have fallen from record highs hit following Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with lower prices for cereals, meat, and sugar offsetting rises in the cost of dairy and vegetable oils in August 2024 ([US News &amp; World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-09-06/world-food-prices-ease-slightly-in-august-un-says)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2025 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for October 2025, expected in early November 2025 ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/), see table near bottom of page). As of the launch of this question, the value for the Food Price Index for August 2024 was 120.7. To download historical nominal data, click "Excel: Nominal and real indices from 1990 onwards (monthly and annual)" under "Download datasets."
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Less than 102.0

At least 102.0, but less than 108.0

At least 108.0, but less than 114.0

At least 114.0, but less than 120.0

At least 120.0, but less than 126.0

At least 126.0, but less than 132.0

At least 132.0, but less than 138.0

At least 138.0, but less than 144.0

144.0 or more

What will be the value of the FAO Food Price Index for October 2025?

The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 6-7 November 2024.
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
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Lower

Same

Higher

At close of business on 7 November 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 September 2024?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):

> "A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt." The prime example of a "major nuclear accident" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.


The situation regarding Russian control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), has been a [focal point of concern](https://www.world-nuclear.org/ukraine-information/ukraine-russia-war-and-nuclear-energy.aspx) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since the early stages of the invasion in February 2022. The plant came under armed attack in March 2022, marking the first instance of an operating civil nuclear power plant being attacked during an active conflict. This attack led to a projectile hitting a training building and resulted in a fire, but essential equipment and the reactors remained unaffected​​.

Since the conflict began, the [operation of the reactors has varied](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197574725/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-power-plants), with some being taken offline or put online as needed, depending on the stability of external power supplies and conditions around the plants​​.

> There are six reactors at Zaporizhzhia maintained by Energoatom personnel, according to Kotin, but Russia controls the plant. Those reactors are currently offline. Meanwhile, Ukraine is operating nine reactors generating electricity at three other locations around the country.

In June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of [plotting to stage an attack on ZNPP](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-plotting-imminent-attack-nuclear-station-2023-07-04/).

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was fired on November 17, 2023. He was reportedly informed of his firing during a [Google Meet session](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-used-google-meet-to-fire-sam-altman-2023-11). 

Microsoft makes a competing product to Google Meet called [Microsoft Teams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Teams) which among other things also offers video conferencing.

Microsoft has been a significant investor in OpenAI, investing more than $10 billion in the company and incorporating OpenAI's technology into its products. Altman said he would join Microsoft, before reportedly returning to OpenAI following negotiations with the board.

Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?

All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral legislatures: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and later Vermont. All of them switched to a bicameral system by 1836. Just as in the federal constitution, usually the lower house is elected from even-population districts but the upper house is chosen from fixed districts such as counties.

In 1937, [Nebraska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska_Legislature#History) became the first state to eliminate its upper chamber and adopt a unicameral legislature.

In 1964, the US Supreme Court issued its ruling in [Reynolds v Sims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_v._Sims), which ruled that all state legislative districts must be roughly proportional by population. This caused all 49 other states to have two chambers that were both elected from even-population districts.

In recent history there have been other states with unsuccessful campaigns to switch to unicameralism. Governor Jesse Ventura advocated for it in 1999 in [Minnesota](https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=uni), but it failed to pass the legislature to be put on the ballot. In 2006 a petition to put unicameralism on the ballot in Michigan failed to get enough signatures to qualify. In 2023, a bill was [introduced](https://www.pressherald.com/2023/05/08/state-lawmaker-calls-for-sweeping-review-of-maine-constitution/) in Maine to create a bipartisan commission to study a unicameral legislature among other reforms.

Will a second US state adopt a unicameral legislature before January 1, 2050?

> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**
> 
> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.
> 
> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company. 
> ...
> 
> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.
> 
> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.
> 
> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.
> 
> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.” 
> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)

Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence?

P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.

A good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video "P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)

Does P = NP?

*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study.  The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*

Deep Learning is a subset of machine learning and artificial intelligence that uses artificial neural networks with multiple layers (hence "deep") to learn from large amounts of data. The field's [rapid advancement](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation) has been fueled by a perfect storm of technological progress: exponential growth in computing power, the proliferation of big data, and breakthrough algorithms that have unlocked new possibilities in machine learning.

The market for deep learning technologies and applications is expected to experience substantial growth in the coming years, reflecting the increasing adoption and expanding use cases across industries. Many analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [well into the double digits](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-deep-learning-market-size-134000643.html) for the deep learning market through the end of the decade. This growth is anticipated to be driven by factors such as the increasing demand for AI-powered analytics in business decision-making, the integration of deep learning in edge devices and IoT, and ongoing advancements in neural network architectures and training methodologies.

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).

The possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

*Related Questions on Metaculus:*

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)

----

Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:

* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange 

* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)

For example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on "[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)". 

See [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.

Potential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.

While progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.

References:

- Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/)
- Medscape:  [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713)
- UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/)
- Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes)
- The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/)
- Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do)
- ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262)
- ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248)

Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?

The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow. 

As of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed [€17.1 Billion of military support](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite [explicit requests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-germany-provide-taurus-long-range-missiles-berlin-2023-05-27/) from the Ukrainian government. 

* On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann [called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles](https://news.yahoo.com/bundestag-mp-calls-immediate-transfer-172600453.html) to Ukraine.
* On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as [the only way out for Germany](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100315390/markus-soeder-fordert-fuer-ukraine-den-marschflugkoerper-taurus.html) to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany [accused the federal government](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100311874/ukraine-krieg-joachim-gauck-kritisiert-olaf-scholz-fuer-zoegern-bei-taurus.html) of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine
* On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag [declined](https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw03-de-wehrbericht-2022-983206) the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178).

Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?

With the recent announcement of Peloton’s [production](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peloton-stock-is-crashing-on-reports-its-halting-production-of-bikes-and-treadmills-183616826.html) [ramp-down](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html) and subsequent firing of CEO John Foley, questions have been raised about whether the company will survive a decrease in demand for at-home fitness equipment as the COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic. Apple, with its large cash reserves and its own Fitness+ brand, would be a prime parent for Peloton.

Sources on reasons for Apple to purchase Peloton:
1. [Why it makes sense for Apple for buy Peloton - Macworld](https://www.macworld.com/article/608948/why-it-makes-sense-apple-buy-peloton.html)
2. [Investor calls on Peloton to explore sale to Apple - 9to5Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2022/01/24/peloton-apple-sale-investor-report/)

Will Apple buy Peloton before 2050?

Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).

Dean Mullen writes,

> Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.

and Jeff T Kaufman countered with,

> Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.

> No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from "legal and common" to "completely banned" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.

Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom in 2050?

There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):

>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
>
>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements.

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Republicans fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House ([270 to Win](https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
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The Democratic Party candidate

The Republican Party candidate

Someone else

Who will win the election for Michigan's 7th Congressional District in 2024?

Negotiations between Hamas and Israel continue for, among other things, the release of hostages taken in the early October 2023 attack on the country by Hamas and other groups ([France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240824-ceasefire-talks-set-to-resume-in-cairo-as-fighting-rages-in-gaza), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-ceasefire-acc945acb9160c63a8d957e1addc16e9)). As of 20 August 2024, Israel stated that 109 hostages were still being held, though many were believed dead ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/20/nx-s1-5082283/israel-has-recovered-the-bodies-of-six-hostages-from-gaza)). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead would count as to those particular hostages, and whether an Israeli citizen holds dual citizenship is immaterial.
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Before 11 October 2024

Between 11 October 2024 and 20 November 2024

Between 21 November 2024 and 31 December 2024

Not before 1 January 2025

When will Israel publicly announce that all Israeli citizens captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead?

[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.

Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” 

On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:

- Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship

- Receive Medicaid and Medicare

- Vote in Presidential primaries

On the other hand, they cannot:

- Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections

- Get access to other government programs

- Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator

The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.

Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).

On the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:

> 40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.

Even if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): 

> To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the "New States" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. 

Although there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):

> While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood.
“The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.

Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?

[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election.  She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.

Cris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022.  She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders.

Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?

[The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given $ \varepsilon > 0 $, there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation $ a + b = c $ with $ a, b $ coprime such that

\[ c > \textrm{rad}(abc)^{1 + \varepsilon} \]

In 2012, [Shinichi Mochizuki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinichi_Mochizuki) claimed a proof of the conjecture, but his proof has failed to achieve widespread recognition among mathematicians as of 2022.

Is the abc conjecture true?

This is a market on what the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): All Items less food and energy, unadjusted percent change, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be for December, 2023. This is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the one decimal-value change that can be found in the December CPI table under the column "Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023". From Dec. 2021 to Dec. 2022, the Core CPI-U was 5.7%. End date: January 14, 2024.
There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule [is here](http://insightprediction.com/page/FAQ#Fee-Schedule). The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See [FAQ](http://insightprediction.com/page/FAQ#bet-locks) for further information.



At 2.0% or Below

2.1% to 4.0%

4.1% or Above

What Will Core CPI-U Inflation Be in 2023?

[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. As of March 2021, Beyond Meat products were available in approximately 118,000 retail and foodservice outlets in over 80 countries worldwide.

The company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of $14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)

However, since that time, the company's stock price has imploded, declining more than 80%, leaving the company with a market cap of $2.16 billion. In August 2022, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/beyond-meat-sales-under-threat-plant-based-boom-withers-2022-08-03/?taid=62eacf17fb7427000132fa56&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter):

>Beyond Meat Inc is headed for an unappetizing second quarter as the plant-based food craze withers in the face of several weak product tests at restaurants and mediocre reviews.

This decline in the company's fortunes has [led some to speculate that the company will go bankrupt if it does not cut costs](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meats-cash-burn-is-putting-the-stock-at-risk-of-falling-to-0-warns-new-constructs-11659461866): 

>“Beyond Meat must dramatically cut costs and lower its cash burn, or it will go bankrupt,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note released on Tuesday. “Companies with heavy cash burn and little cash on hand are risky in any market, but especially now.”

On August 3 2022, Bloomberg [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/beyond-meat-eliminates-about-40-positions-in-cost-cutting-move?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business#xj4y7vzkg) that the company had announced a round of layoffs:

>Plant-based meat maker Beyond Meat Inc. eliminated about 40 positions as part of a broader cost-cutting plan, Chief Executive Officer Ethan Brown told employees in an internal memo.

Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

As interest rate cut expectations rise, mortgage rates have begun to fall ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mortgage-rates-2024-lowest-since-april-2023-rate-cut-forecast/)). The question will be suspended 25 December 2024 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US)). For the week ending 22 August 2024, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.46%.
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Less than 4.40%

At least 4.40%, but less than 4.80%

At least 4.80%, but less than 5.20%

At least 5.20%, but less than 5.60%

At least 5.60%, but less than 6.00%

At least 6.00%, but less than 6.40%

At least 6.40%, but less than 6.80%

At least 6.80%, but less than 7.20%

7.20% or more

What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 26 December 2024?

[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. 

Ethereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol.

Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?

Azerbaijanis are the [second-largest ethnic group in Iran.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Azerbaijanis#Demographics) [There has been recent political tension](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/8/analysis-will-azerbaijan-iran-tensions-lead-to-war) between Azerbaijan and Iran due the latter accusing the former of fomenting separatist sentiment in its territory. Azerbaijan has fought several conflicts against Armenia for the same reasons.

There has been an effort of [rapprochement](https://cepa.org/article/iran-seeks-to-make-a-friend-of-old-enemy-azerbaijan/) between the two countries, however.

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

**QS World University Rankings:**

The QS World University Rankings is a prominent ranking system for universities globally.
It considers various factors like academic reputation, employer reputation, faculty-student ratio, research citations, and international student population.
Currently (as of March 2024), US and UK universities dominate the top positions, with strong contenders from Switzerland (specifically ETH Zurich) and Singapore entering the top 10 in [world rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). 

These established institutions benefit from:

- Deeply entrenched reputations: Universities like Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard have centuries of prestige and a global network of successful alumni.
- Strong research output: These institutions consistently produce high-quality research, which is a key factor in the QS rankings.
- Attractive environments: They offer top-notch facilities, competitive faculty salaries, and vibrant student life, attracting top talent from around the world.

**The Rise of Asian Powerhouses:**

However, the landscape is shifting. Several universities in Asia, particularly in China, Singapore, and Japan, have been steadily climbing the QS rankings in recent years. This rise can be attributed to several factors:

- Government investment: Many Asian governments are pouring significant resources into their higher education systems, aiming to create world-class universities.
- Research focus: There's a growing emphasis on research output in these universities, leading to an increase in high-impact publications.
- Internationalization efforts: Asian universities are actively recruiting international faculty and students, fostering a more diverse and globally connected learning environment.

**Examples of Rising Stars:**

- China: Tsinghua University, Peking University, and several others have seen significant improvements in the QS rankings, challenging the traditional dominance.
- Singapore: National University of Singapore consistently ranks among the top universities in Asia and is a strong contender for the global top 10.
- Switzerland: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich) is a prime example of a European non-UK institution that has consistently ranked high in the QS rankings, often in the top 10, due to its exceptional research and focus on science and technology.

**Looking Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities**

While the US and UK still hold a significant advantage, predicting the future is challenging due to several uncertainties:

- Government policies: Future government funding priorities in different countries could significantly impact the trajectory of universities.
- Evolving ranking methodologies: The QS rankings, and potentially other ranking systems, might incorporate new factors that could benefit certain universities over others.
- Geopolitical landscape: Global political and economic trends could influence the attractiveness of different regions for international students and faculty.
- Overall, there's a growing possibility of a university outside the US and UK reaching the top 5 of the QS rankings by 2030. The rise of Asian powerhouses, coupled with the continued strength of institutions like ETH Zurich, potential shifts in ranking methodologies and global trends, makes this an exciting time for higher education.

Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030?

*Related Questions on Metaculus:*

* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)

* [If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)

----

Other questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/).

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and operationalized on Metaculus.

They are,

* [Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175/ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030/)

* [Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11177/ai-book-comprehension-before-2030/)

* [Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11179/ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030/)

* [Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11188/ai-as-a-competent-programmer-before-2030/)

* [Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11198/ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030/)

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Cases of pertussis in the US have jumped in 2024 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/whooping-cough-cases-rise-3-times-high-year/story?id=110708078), [MSN [Boston Globe]](https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/whooping-cough-cases-double-in-the-us-a-potential-legacy-of-the-pandemic/ar-BB1nLz6E)). The total number of cases in 2024 reported through Week 23 (week ending 8 June 2024) was 5,669, which was higher than the 5,611 total for all of 2023 ([CDC - Pertussis Cases Week 23 2024](https://wonder.cdc.gov/nndss/static/2024/23/2024-23-table990.html), [CDC - Pertussis Cases Week 52 2023](https://wonder.cdc.gov/nndss/static/2023/52/2023-52-table990.html)). The question will be suspended on 27 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the CDC for the week ending 28 December 2024 ([CDC - Weekly Notifiable Disease Tables](https://wonder.cdc.gov/nndss/nndss_weekly_tables_menu.asp), scroll down to and click "Pertussis," and see "U.S. Residents, excluding U.S. Territories"). Data for specific weeks can be found by clicking the "Change Year/Week" button and selecting the year and week for which you want information.
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
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Fewer than 10,000

At least 10,000, but fewer than 13,000

At least 13,000, but fewer than 16,000

At least 16,000, but fewer than 19,000

At least 19,000, but fewer than 22,000

At least 22,000, but fewer than 26,000

At least 26,000, but fewer than 30,000

At least 30,000, but fewer than 35,000

35,000 or more

How many cumulative year-to-date US resident cases of pertussis (aka whooping cough) will the CDC report as of Week 52 of 2024?

According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)

However, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.

Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?

In January 2021, Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un set several goals for the nation in his [Five-Year Plan](https://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/kju_8th_party_congress_speech_summary.pdf/file_view), including:

>The basic tasks facing the building materials industry during the new five-year plan period is to attain the goal of producing 8 million tons of cement and ensure self-sufficiency of the finishing materials.

>It is necessary to renovate the existing cement factories and, at the same time, build new large-capacity, up-to-date cement factories in the areas with favorable conditions for materials and electricity supply and transport, and thus further expand the cement production capacity of the country.

Kim also made the goal of building 50,000 apartments in Pyongyang and 25,000 in the Komdok area before 2026.

In May 2021, writers at 38North [expressed doubts](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/strategic-value-but-limited-prospects-north-koreas-cement-industry/) about these goals, saying,

>[...] as of now, the industry is not likely to become a cornerstone of the North Korean economy. The current border closure and lack of hard currency make it difficult for the country to import key materials for expanding the industry in a meaningful way, and cement production is unlikely to reach sufficient quality for export anytime soon.

They offer a deep analysis of North Korean cement production in a series of articles: [[1]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/strategic-value-but-limited-prospects-north-koreas-cement-industry/)  [[2]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/north-koreas-cement-industry-more-than-meets-the-eye/)  [[3]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/north-koreas-cement-industry-further-concrete-leads/)

The (South Korean) [Bank of Korea](http://ecos.bok.or.kr/flex/EasySearch_e.jsp) offers some historical data on NK's cement production:

| Year | Cement Production (Million Tons) |
| -- | -- |
| 2011 | 	6.452 |
| 2012 | 	6.446 |
| 2013 | 	6.6 |
| 2014 | 	6.675 |
| 2015 | 	6.697 |
| 2016 | 	7.077 |
| 2017 | 	6.838 |
| 2018 | 	5.832 |
| 2019 | 	5.604 |
| 2020 |  5.685 |

Will North Korea produce 8 million tons of cement per year before 2026?

[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted "[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)".

There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:

> We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”

However, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a "[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.

Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?

Tensions in Kosovo escalated into violence in 2023 and have remained high into 2024 ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-tension-eu-us-cf2637072cd88f3bcf0d902236d3631b), [PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-is-behind-renewed-tensions-between-serbia-and-kosovo), [US News &amp; World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2024-03-13/us-envoy-urges-kosovo-serbia-to-take-tough-decisions-to-restart-talks-on-normalizing-ties), [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/balkan-countries-tension-riots-euro-2024/)). For the purposes of this question, "firing weapons into Kosovo" means the shooting of bullets, artillery shells, rockets, offensive drones, or other munitions into the territory or airspace of Kosovo. The entering of forces or firing of weapons and the accusation of such must take place in the question&#39;s open period to count.
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Before 1 October 2024

Between 1 October 2024 and 31 December 2024

Between 1 January 2025 and 31 March 2025

Not before 1 April 2025

When will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of either entering Kosovo without authorization or firing a weapon or weapons into Kosovo?

In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:

In 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.

In January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach.

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

China appears to be at the forefront of some aspects of biotechnology, being the first in the world both to successfully [clone primates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhong_Zhong_and_Hua_Hua) and to successfully [gene edit humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Jiankui_affair).

Will the first human clone be made in China?

The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. 
It states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory.  It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.

At the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](arxiv.org) by 2030.  In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.

Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?

As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). 

A few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. 

Other states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).  Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons.

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

The 2024-25 NHL regular season is scheduled to begin in Prague, Czechia, on 4 October 2024 and conclude on 17 April 2025 ([NHL](https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-announces-2024-25-regular-season-schedule), [NHL - Division Standings](https://www.nhl.com/standings/2024-10-04/division)).
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Carolina Hurricanes

New Jersey Devils

New York Islanders

New York Rangers

Another team

Which team will win the Metropolitan Division in the 2024-25 NHL regular season?

Previous vice presidential debates have been: 

- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence
- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine
-  October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan
- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin
- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards
- October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.

Vice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.

When she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.

As of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate.

Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?

60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union.  Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy).  The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).

In [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy.  Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), "For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies."  Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) "It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub."

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

For the purposes of this question, "an act of cyberwar" is a cyber act (i.e., an unauthorized, malicious, and destructive act completed against a computer system through the use of a computer system) that compromises and disrupts a critical infrastructure system with destructive effects, and "state actor" means an organ of a nation state or a state-directed or state-sponsored individual or group ([United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime](https://www.unodc.org/e4j/en/cybercrime/module-14/key-issues/cyberwarfare.html)). "US" means the executive branch of the federal government. "Critical infrastructure" is as defined in the United States Code at 18 USC 2339D(c)(3) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/uscode.php?width=840&amp;height=800&amp;iframe=true&amp;def_id=18-USC-616744004-609636146&amp;term_occur=999&amp;term_src=title:18:part:I:chapter:113B:section:2339D)). Critical infrastructure does not necessarily have to be within the territory of the US to count, and both the act and accusation must occur during the question&#39;s open period to count. That an accused actor is a state actor must be stated in the accusation to count. Accusations of superficially disruptive attacks (e.g., DDoS attacks on public websites) would not count (e.g., [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/us/airport-websites-russia-hackers/index.html)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 22 May 2024: While there have been reports of cyber acts recently executed by state actors against water infrastructure systems in the US, these attacks have not had "destructive effects" and/or have not risen above the threshold of "superficially disruptive attacks."
NOTE 4 September 2024: Ransomware attacks for the purposes of larceny and/or extortion alone, in and of themselves, do not rise to the level of an event that "compromises and disrupts a critical infrastructure system with destructive effects."


Will the US publicly accuse a state actor of committing an act of cyberwar against critical infrastructure of the US before 1 January 2025?

The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) of the US International Trade Administration (ITA) expects international visitation to the US to continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic ([US International Trade Administration](https://www.trade.gov/press-release/ita-forecasts-more-15-increase-international-visitors-united-states-2024)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data for 2024 as first reported by the NTTO&#39;s ADIS/I-94 Visitor Arrivals Monitor (COR) for all of 2024 ([Trade.gov](https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/adisi-94-visitor-arrivals-monitor-cor)). Near the bottom of this page, click the arrow to the right of "1 of 7" for monthly and historical data. In 2023, total US arrivals were 66,481,888, higher than 2022 but still below the pre-pandemic total of nearly 80 million in 2019. Data from 2018 to now are available using the filter functionality (click the funnel icon on the left side of the page).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Fewer than 62 million

At least 62 million, but fewer than 68 million

At least 68 million, but fewer than 74 million

At least 74 million, but fewer than 80 million

80 million or more

How many international visitor arrivals to the US will there be in 2024?

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pce.asp), [Federal Reserve - FAQs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm)). The "core" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in October 2023 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE), click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for August 2023 was 3.80086%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count.
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
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Before February 2024

Between February 2024 and April 2024

Between May 2024 and July 2024

Between August 2024 and October 2024

Not before November 2024

When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka "Core") next be 2.000% or lower?

Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.

VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.

VDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:
> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”

This question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

betfair

fantasyscotus

foretold

givewellopenphil

goodjudgment

goodjudgmentopen

guesstimate

infer

insight

kalshi

manifold

metaculus

polymarket

predictit

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smarkets

wildeford

xrisk

Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'?