34%
Unlikely

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is composed of five permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. These members have the power to veto any substantive (significant actions or decisions not considered...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 19
67%
Likely

Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of the agreement, including China, the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.

Under the agreement, each country sets its own...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 519
29%
Unlikely

All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 10
40%
At least 192,000, but fewer than 216,000
26%
At least 168,000, but fewer than 192,000
20%
At least 216,000, but fewer than 240,000
6%
At least 144,000, but fewer than 168,000
5%
At least 240,000, but fewer than 264,000
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 63
Forecasters: 18
91%
More than 150,000 but fewer than 250,000
5%
Between 100,000 and 150,000, inclusive
3%
Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive
< 1%
Fewer than 100,000
< 1%
More than 400,000 but fewer than 600,000
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 218
Forecasters: 39
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the subsequent war has had significant impacts on the Ukrainian economy. According to a recent estimate by the Ukrainian Economy Ministry, GDP dropped by 30.4% in 2022, with an inflation rate...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 184
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Executive Order 6102, signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, prohibited the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the United States. The order was aimed at increasing the money supply during the Great...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 106
66%
Likely

There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors have proposed a class of models to represent fundamental physics.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 290
6%
Very unlikely

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, concerns remain that Russia may foment unrest in Moldova by recognizing Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 300
Forecasters: 68
51%
At least $31 billion, but less than $33 billion
36%
At least $33 billion, but less than $35 billion
7%
At least $35 billion, but less than $37 billion
4%
Less than $31 billion
2%
$37 billion or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 34
Forecasters: 19
65%
At least €30.00, but less than €45.00
22%
At least €45.00, but less than €60.00
8%
At least €20.00, but less than €30.00
3%
At least €60.00, but less than €80.00
1%
Less than €20.00
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 244
Forecasters: 44
6%
Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?
  • Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?

Republican Congresspeople Ted Cruz and Jim Jordan have both publicly discussed the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 682
53%
Male
47%
Female

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the...

★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £150k
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A tweet by @blader has sparked a debate about whether the upcoming GPT-5 will be considered an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or not:

i have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 187
50%
About Even

So-called "third parties" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of third parties) rarely win elections in America. However, the last third party member who won a senate election...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 267
24%
Unlikely

Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 20
56%
About Even

Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone.

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 93
85%
Likely

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 2753
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 460
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have talked about AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” At the same time, discussions around what...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 33

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