59%
Republican
41%
Democratic

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the popular vote in the 2024 general election for U.S. President in Georgia. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is...

★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 118k
50%
About Even

Elon Musk is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 556
29%
Someone else
27%
Martín Torrijos
22%
Rómulo Roux
17%
José Gabriel Carrizo
3%
Ricardo Martinelli
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 74
Forecasters: 20
54%
Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%
21%
Higher by 3.0% or more
20%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive
4%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%
1%
Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 197
Forecasters: 71
30%
Unlikely

Rare earth magnets are a type of magnet made from alloys of rare earth elements, which are a set of metals that are found in the earth's crust in small quantities. These magnets are extremely strong and have many important applications in a range of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 57
3%
Very unlikely

A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, describes a new material known as LK-99 which the authors claim exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. The veracity of the results are uncertain, but if a room...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 163
30%
Between May 2024 and July 2024
26%
Between August 2024 and October 2024
22%
Between February 2024 and April 2024
21%
Not before November 2024
< 1%
Before February 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 97
Forecasters: 30
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?

From a recent Guardian piece,

The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 195
25%
Unlikely

According to wikipedia:

The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 60
57%
About Even

Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.

The paper is here.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 263
55%
About Even

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?

The Democratic Peace Theory suggests that democratic countries are unlikely to go to war with other democracies. Proponents of the Democratic Peace...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 133
55%
About Even

Embryo screening is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 529
70%
Likely

A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age.

Features of a GMI would be: unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 336
22%
Unlikely

CNEOS 2014-01-08, also known as Interstellar Meteor 1 (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014.

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb and a student, Amir Siraj, published a preprint which argued—citing a US Department of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
51%
Joe Biden
20%
Donald Trump
8%
Michelle Obama
5%
Gavin Newsom
5%
Kamala Harris
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £329k
77%
Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT
11%
Ferrari
8%
Mercedes
3%
McLaren Mercedes
1%
Aston Martin Aramco Mercedes
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 61
Forecasters: 56
60%
Between 4.00% and 4.75%, inclusive
21%
Higher than 3.25% but lower than 4.00%
18%
Higher than 4.75% but lower than 5.50%
1%
Between 2.50% and 3.25%, inclusive
< 1%
Between 5.50% and 6.25%, inclusive
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 76
Forecasters: 20
33%
Unlikely

Relations between Morocco and Algeria have historically been rocky. A brief war was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a low-intensity conflict with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 44
43%
About Even

On 18 December 2023, NSC and US Steel announced the former would acquire the latter in an all-cash deal valued at about $15 billion, which the two expect "to close in the second or third quarter of calendar year 2024" subject to US Steel shareholder...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 102
Forecasters: 45
18%
Unlikely

Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.

Currently the USA is party to 6...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111
3%
Very unlikely

In 2022, Meta's virtual reality platform for the Meta Quest Headset, Horizon Worlds, faced difficulties attracting and retaining users. According to internal documents obtained by the Wall Streat Journal, the platform's monthly active users dropped...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108

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