79%
Less than 4.0%
20%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive
1%
More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%
< 1%
Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive
< 1%
More than 7.0%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 299
Forecasters: 48
67%Likely

One of Paul Erdős' favorite problems was the sunflower conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. The sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 28
67%
Yes, the most valuable in the world
28%
No, but the most valuable in the United States
5%
No
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 318
Forecasters: 157
20%Unlikely

George Hotz, also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company comma.ai. Recently GeoHot appeared to announce the possibility that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 109
30%Unlikely

Ten years ago (mid 2011) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by REACH legislation of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 73
46%About Even

The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials. These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 517
27%Unlikely

The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 170
87%Likely

If there is a release on the websites of the White House or Department of Education, issued between April 11, 2022 and || Date ||, extending federal student loan forbearance past || Date ||, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves...

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 11k
69%
Coalition
29%
Labor
2%
Any Other Party or Independent
★★★☆☆
Betfair
Volume: £2.8k
13%Unlikely

This is a market on whether Kanye West's verified Twitter account (@kanyewest) will tweet again between February 18, 2022, and July 1, 2022, (11:59:59 PM ET). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West's verified Twitter account tweets at least...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Forecasts: 1474
Liquidity: $976
5%Very unlikely

From The Week, Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 126
35%Unlikely

There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example here and here. However, Biden's campaign has maintained that he is considering...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 339
1%Exceptionally unlikely

In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has dimmed in the sky, prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have responded by saying that it is unlikely to explode...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 104
22%Unlikely

Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023? This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 220
25%Unlikely

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs. Egypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
90%Very likely

In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible here, Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined here, and only...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 208
22%Unlikely

. The resolution source is: FED-22DEC (undefined)

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 4%
Shares vol.: 12k
18%Unlikely

Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have already exploded. The "Boom Star" as Molner calls it: will be visible as...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 171
7%Very unlikely

Reddit is an American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website. A host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 114
89%
Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)
11%
Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive
< 1%
More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)
< 1%
Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive
< 1%
More than 700.0 (thousands)
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 560
Forecasters: 149
60%Likely

In a recent press release the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 115

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus