Both nuclear sharing and own developement count as YES.

The MIT Mystery Hunt is an annual puzzle hunt that takes place in January. Historically, there have been no restrictions on the use of technology for solving puzzles. Will at least some LLMs be banned from use at the 2026 MIT Mystery Hunt? If LLMs...

e.g. drugs comparable to Semaglutide or Tirzepatide or other new ones.

“announce” means Anthropic or its leadership put out public messaging that clearly, credibly, and without hedging, asserts one of their AI systems is ASL-3

“ASL-3” refers to Anthropic’s own Responsible Scaling Policy, which describes AI Safety Level...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No..

Fort Knox, located in Kentucky, is a highly secure U.S. Army post that houses a large portion of U.S. gold reserves. The last comprehensive audit of Fort Knox's gold reserves occurred between 1974 and 1986. Recently, Senator Rand Paul has suggested...

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this...

record at time of market creation: 56.7°C (134°F) https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-highest-temperature

See https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/25/24050693/ftc-investigating-microsoft-amazon-google-investments-openai-anthropic

Resolves yes if I believe the inquiry started a series of events leading to some change with non-negligible impact on ai timelines...

If the manga gets to chapter 1201, this market will resolve to YES.

If the manga finishes before it reaches chapter 1201, this market will resolve to NO.

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't...

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 2nd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, May 11, 2025, Donald Trump publicly calls for a delay or cancellation in the implementation or enforcement of the Real ID Act.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the...

This market refers to the Valorant match between sleepers and NRG Academy in the VCL North America Swiss Stage, scheduled for February 3 at 4:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to "sleepers" if sleepers win the match against NRG Academy.

This market...

In the upcoming Serie A game between Atalanta BC and US Cremonese, scheduled for February 9 at 12:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Atalanta BC and US Cremonese combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is...

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Pam Bondi resigns from, is removed from, or otherwise vacates the office of, United States Attorney General, by the End Date listed below. A circumstance in which Pam Bondi is temporarily suspended...

In the upcoming Saudi Pro League game between Al Ettifaq Saudi Club and Al Taawoun Saudi Club, scheduled for February 3 at 12:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Al Ettifaq Saudi Club and Al Taawoun Saudi Club combine to score 3 or more...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise,...

Market resolves to YES if William does not abdicate or the monarchy is not abolished prior to the death of King Charles III.

i.e. will Trump attempt to subvert the two-term limit? Must be a serious attempt, e.g. announcing he will run for re-election in 2028 or initiating some legal proceedings to repeal the 22nd. Idle wondering or trolling doesn't count.

Resolves N/A if...