13%
Unlikely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?

In US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 96
91%
Very likely

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rochelle Walensky holds the office of Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention without interruption until the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under...

★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 48k
74%
Likely

The P vs BPP question asks whether any problem in BPP), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, is the same as#Problems) P), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 41
23%
Unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?

The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 23
41%
About Even

Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of intelligence and mental illness. Many physical traits, such as height, attractiveness, strength, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 71
41%
About Even

Over 30 countries have universal healthcare in which all residents of a particular nation are assured access to medical treatment by their government.

Healthcare in the United States is currently a combination of private, nonprofit, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
12%
Unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?
  • Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?

Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 737
97%
Virtually certain

A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes.

This market is proposed by Animal Spirits.. The...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 376k
16%
Unlikely

The United Nations state:

"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 126
13%
Unlikely

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their || Meeting || meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 45k
7%
Very unlikely

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as a further potential point of conflict....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 297
20%
Unlikely

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook. A previous Metaculus question asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 176
92%
Very likely

In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.

Let's define the Collatz Program...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 148
23%
Unlikely

In recent years, massive ransomware incidents have sidelined major companies, sometimes with significant impact to civilian populations. Events such as NotPetya in 2017 and the Colonial Pipeline attack illustrate this reality. While virtually any...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Joe Biden won the 2020 US Presidential Election against incumbent President Donald Trump. Biden has since expressed his intention multiple times of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican party nominated Donald Trump again. However,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 89
57%
About Even

According to physicsworld,

When numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 60
16%
Unlikely

The question Date first AGI is publicly known. asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.

Today, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80
7%
Very unlikely

Barrett et al. (2013) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:

  • "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 264
49%
About Even

One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 30
45%
About Even

Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it is useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111
12%
Unlikely

The city of Mariupol has been under siege by Russian armed forces from February 24, 2022 through April 2022.

The Guardian reported on March 22:

"Local authorities say 80% of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 770

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