12%
Unlikely

Founded in 2018, 50by40 is an organisation with the mission to achieve

A 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 268
44%
About Even

A previous Metaculus question asked about a great power war and whether the US and others would intervene in a conflict over Taiwan. Some scholars have warned about a Thucydides Trap that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 213
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the world record for breath holding), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.

That busted other previous...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 425
75%
Likely

The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?


Benjamin Netanyahu is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1525
3%
Very unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111
76%
Likely

The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.

The Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50
65%
Likely

Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. The European Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament after European elections, meaning her term will end in 2024, coinciding with...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 65
43%
About Even

The federal criminal case United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.

The case brings 37 charges against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 32
5%
Very unlikely

AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 263
44%
At least $28 billion, but less than $30 billion
36%
At least $30 billion, but less than $32 billion
10%
At least $26 billion, but less than $28 billion
9%
$32 billion or more
1%
Less than $26 billion
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 46
Forecasters: 19
9%
Very unlikely

Germany's ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) is facing very low popularity as the far-right AfD rises in the polls (Deutsche Welle, AP, Politico - Germany Poll of Polls). Germany...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 235
Forecasters: 56
25%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

  • How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 44
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.

Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 51
20%
Unlikely

Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that polyamory may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, polyamory is defined as

the state or practice of having more...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256
47%
About Even

Professional tennis is divided into two tours, the ATP for men and the WTA for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following Roger Federer's tweet in 2020:

Just...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 93
3%
Very unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?

A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 446
54%
About Even

<a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller'>John D. Rockefeller</a> is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 504
70%
Likely

The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.

The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the electoral college.

In...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 166
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

On July 5, 2023, OpenAI announced a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 380
80%
Likely

[warning: links may contain spoilers]

George R. R. Martin (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show are extraordinarily popular.

Many of GRRM's fans...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 726
50%
About Even

Lula has been elected thrice for the presidency in Brazil, in 2002, 2006, and 2022. All three times he led the first round with over 40% of votes, winning then in the second round with 60% of votes the first two times, and with 51% in 2022. Current...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 19

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus