66%
Labour Majority
25%
No Overall Majority
10%
Conservative Majority
< 1%
Liberal Democrat majority
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £1292k
31%
Unlikely

This market will resolve as "Yes" if, at any point in time before September 15th, 2023, Ukraine retakes control of any of the following central points in any of these cities, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): the...

★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $4.8k
6%
Very unlikely

Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 121
Forecasters: 62
74%
Likely

In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times reported that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 134
11%
Unlikely

Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that "In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50
20%
Unlikely

World War I was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.

World War...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1768
99%
Virtually certain

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?

Beginning in 2017, the government of China has detained over 1 million Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 176
8%
Very unlikely

In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern," over privacy concerns...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 161
89%
Likely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.11°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.11°C or greater for 2023 will...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $15k
11%
Unlikely

Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust ("Lock him up!"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.

Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1635
21%
Unlikely

In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, on Longbets Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,

A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 67
83%
Likely

The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page.

A classic critique of cryonics is that the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 121
5%
Very unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Much of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 88
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Executive Order 6102, signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, prohibited the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the United States. The order was aimed at increasing the money supply during the Great...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 82
42%
About Even

In 2019 OpenAI launched OpenAI LP,

a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.

The profit cap was intended to ensure that the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 192
43%
About Even

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

One of the most important papers31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 220
45%
About Even

Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 15
24%
Unlikely

With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A number of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 607
5%
Very unlikely

The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (US News & World Report, Soufan Center). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 76
Forecasters: 28
60%
About Even

As war continues in Ukraine, fights against corruption in the government continue (CBC, BBC, Guardian). The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a measure of a country's perceived levels of public sector corruption (Transparency International)....

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 83
Forecasters: 58
64%
Between 7 and 9
28%
Between 10 and 12
6%
Between 4 and 6
2%
Between 13 and 15
< 1%
3 or fewer
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 523
Forecasters: 69

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