70%
Likely

A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age.

Features of a GMI would be: unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 341
61%
Likely

Apple reportedly wants to include blood pressure monitoring within the Apple Watch. Bloomberg wrote in April 2022 that the feature was "two years away from hitting the market and may slip until 2025."

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 158
8%
Very unlikely

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt...

★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 541k
50%
About Even

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) was enacted in 1970 and established a process for the review of the environmental impact of projects within the federal purview. It also established the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), an office of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 57
85%
Likely

Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been appointed as the CEO of Twitter by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to assume the role in late June, 2023. The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 179
85%
Likely

As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.

But life could take many forms:

  • Wikipedia has a handy list of hypothetical types of biochemistry, notably silicon biochemistry..
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 466
45%
About Even

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?

Every 5 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics conducts a census to collect data on all people in Australia on census night. Each census...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 62
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The threat of nuclear weapons has loomed over the world since over one hundred thousand were killed when the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August of 1945. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has elevated...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1088
80%
Joe Biden
7%
Gavin Newsom
4%
Kamala Harris
< 1%
Bernie Sanders
< 1%
Hillary Clinton
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 23603k
80%
Likely

On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 291
53%
About Even

Will we detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 44
73%
Democratic Party
26%
Republican Party
< 1%
Any Other
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £259k
10%
Unlikely

As global tensions rise among nuclear powers, observers are concerned about the prospect of renewed nuclear weapons testing and a new arms race (Economist, AP, Politico, Arms Control Association). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device"...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 988
Forecasters: 529
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 183
25%
Unlikely

Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.

Other people have crested the 8'...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 389
95%
The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).
< 1%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
57%
Someone else
19%
Another member of the Freedom Party (PVV)
11%
No new prime minister will be sworn in before 23 November 2024 or new elections will be called
9%
A member of the People&#39;s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)
3%
A member of either the Green Left Party (GL) or Labour Party (PvdA)
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 165
Forecasters: 35
32%
At least $51.0 million, but less than $55.5 million
18%
At least $46.5 million, but less than $51.0 million
12%
At least $42.0 million, but less than $46.5 million
12%
At least $55.5 million, but less than $60.0 million
12%
Less than $37.5 million
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 18
Forecasters: 13
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 118
5%
Very unlikely

Whistleblower protection in the Defend Trade Secrets Act:

(1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 14
3%
Very unlikely

The last federal <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-signs-17t-government-spending-bill-ensuring-funding/story?id=95934378" target="_blank">shutdown</a> <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41759"...

★★★★☆
Good Judgment

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