The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the EU parliament liaison office in Washington phrases it:

Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to...

The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement in November 2020, following an announcement in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw by President Trump and giving formal notice of its intention to leave the agreement in November...

Through natural processes, rocks currently absorb about 1.1 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 per year, by reacting with CO2 in the air and converting into solid carbonates, where most of it ends up eventually being permanently stored as bicarbonate in the oceans..

Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist...

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021

All socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the...

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. Our World In Data estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each...

This question is inspired by the linked Long Bet between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.

The bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards.

"Where does 1.8 percent fit into...

Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a long series of disputes between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with...

From Wikipedia,

Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote...

Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of decreasing fraction of value added by the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries to global GDP. This trend is largely due to the increasing industrialization and modernization of many...

As of May 2024, it has been almost 20 years since the 9/11 Commission recommended federal standards for identification, which resulted in the enactment of the controversial REAL ID Act in 2005. According to the 9/11 Commission's report on page...

As part of generally deteriorating relations, China and Taiwan have been playing something of a tit-for-tat trade restrictions game over recent months. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation in this game.

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by 13 UN member states, and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. Opinion...

In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, The Death of Galium, that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:

The element...

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

In a 2020 Pew survey, Indians were more open to "changing a baby's characteristics" to improve intelligence than any other...

Sam Altman, currently the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the tech industry. His involvement in various technological advancements and his public statements on policy and future societal challenges have led to speculation about his potential...