This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Marco Rubio sets foot in Cuba, excluding Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, in a publicly-announced visit that occurs subsequent to the launch of this market on March 18, 2026, and by the End Date listed...

"Decision making under deep uncertainty" (DMDU) is a set of methods and tools to help people do a better job of planning when they face a highly unpredictable future. Instead of relying on precise predictions, DMDU employs robust, adaptive...

Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.

The "exploitation purposes" prerequisite needs to (more or less) be ruled to relate to the sex work that the trafficked persons performed or were intended to perform.

Feb 3, 10:59pm: Will...

Donald Trump has recently paused U.S. military aid to Ukraine, creating significant uncertainty about future American support. While he has advocated for a peace deal that many analysts consider favorable to Russia, he has not explicitly called for...

This market is intended to measure the probability of a major breakthrough in mathematics with AI by DeepMind researchers.

Conditions

Gpt-5: There is a chance that OpenAI's next flagship model will have a different name. What this market is substantively meant to measure is whether investors are excited or disappointed by OpenAI's progress, so if there is a GPT-5-level...

The new kickoff rule is here for a one-year trial. Will it be kept without significant changes?

An "insignificant" change (not enough to resolve this as NO) would be a change to where player(s) line up of not more than 5 yards, a plus or minus one...

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kash Patel resigns from, is removed from, or otherwise vacates, the office of Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, by the End Date listed below. A circumstance in which Mr. Patel is...

! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !

Yes = heads

No = tails

(Day 295)

Current totals: 150 heads vs 144 tails

Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)

Yesterday’s flip: NO

@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome

1 = heads

2...

OpenAI established the Superalignment team to focus on developing ways to steer, regulate, and govern superintelligent AI systems.

Ilya Sutskever, a co-founder and chief scientist at OpenAI, leads this team alongside Jan Leike. The Superalignment...

This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.

@/strutheo/will-the-united-states-have-an-offi-5a2d37ee75bc

@/strutheo/will-the-united-states-have-an-offi-6bab0719780b

Definitions and Criteria [please read carefully]:

1. "AlphaFold-like system"

   An AI system that uses deep learning to predict protein structures or design novel proteins with accuracy comparable to or exceeding AlphaFold 2. This includes...

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of the Moon before January 1st 2034 (and after 2023)

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d...

The Thylacine, or ‘Tasmanian Tiger’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion,...

Elon Musk recently said he thinks the federal budget should be cut by at least $2 Trillion.

This resolves Yes if the Congressional Budget Office's end-of-2025 projections for 2026-2035 federal government expenditures is >$1 Trillion/yr lower than...

[image]

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

A common concern is that a superintelligence would be able to "hack" a human into obeying it. This could happen either by it employing superhuman persuasion to get the human to think it's a good idea, or by finding some adversarial attack that uses a...

Resolves YES if there is a confirmation vote for a Trump cabinet appointee in 2025 that fails in the Senate. Note that if the appointment is rescinded before a vote, that does not resolve the market.