49%
About Even

After many months of deliberation Germany’s Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 255
47%
Donald Trump
41%
Kamala Harris
< 1%
JD Vance
< 1%
Michelle Obama
< 1%
Tim Walz
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £61499k
52%
About Even

*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the Forecasting Research Institute titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 16
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'

Announcing the goal at a meeting of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1844
48%
Fine Gael
30%
Sinn Fein
21%
Fianna Fail
< 1%
Labour
< 1%
Green
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £16k
20%
Unlikely

The Thylacine, or ‘Tasmanian Tiger’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 133
88%
Cleveland Guardians
8%
Kansas City Royals
4%
Minnesota Twins
< 1%
Chicago White Sox
< 1%
Detroit Tigers
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 155
Forecasters: 30
55%
About Even

In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the worst air quality in the world due to smoke from the nearby Bolt Creek Fire.

Typically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 58
50%
4.1%
33%
At least 3.9%, but less than 4.1%
9%
Lower than 3.9%
5%
More than 4.1%, but at most 4.3%
3%
Higher than 4.3%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 66
Forecasters: 20
17%
Unlikely

SpinLaunch is a technology company currently researching and developing a "ground-based, electric powered kinetic launch system" for the purpose of launching "200 kilogram class satellites into low earth orbit", potentially bringing the cost of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 174
98%
Virtually certain

Previous vice presidential debates have been:

  • October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence
  • October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine
  • October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan
  • October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 112
42%
About Even

[Wikipedia article]

All 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 46
30%
Unlikely

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 453
72%
Likely

Starship is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a Super Heavy booster as the first stage and the Starship spacecraft) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone two "integrated flight tests") meaning Starship...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48
80%
Likely

The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.

Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 92
38%
Unlikely

Wikipedia describes the European Army as follows:

The European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 140
61%
At least 200, but fewer than 400
35%
At least 400, but fewer than 800
3%
At least 800, but fewer than 1,200
< 1%
At least 1,200, but fewer than 1,600
< 1%
2,000 or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 247
Forecasters: 38
5%
Very unlikely

In World War 1, the Beiyang government of China played a limited role, but joined on the side of the Allied Powers, which included the United States.

In the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Republic of China was invaded by Japan. After the Japanese...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 187
20%
Unlikely

Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 472
60%
Likely

Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess (Deep Blue PC, 1997), Go (AlphaGo description) or Texas Hold'em (Libratus AI). However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
4%
Very unlikely

The 2024 US presidential election cycle brings the potential for major third-party and/or independent candidates (NBC News, USA Today). The winner of the most votes in a jurisdiction will be considered to have won the electoral votes for that...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 399
Forecasters: 151

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus