24%
Unlikely

The LGBTQ movement has made massive strides during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was illegal in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 350
60%
Likely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 208
55%
South Carolina
36%
New Hampshire
2%
Iowa
2%
Nevada
2%
New Jersey
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 506k
98%
Virtually certain

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their || Meeting || meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 1%
Shares vol.: 38k
45%
About Even

The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 37
40%
About Even

Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around $100 billion in mid 2007, and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 144
47%
About Even

The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.

Franchises that already are at the number...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 265
3%
Very unlikely

The market closes at 10:00 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for || Date ||.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 25k
3%
Very unlikely

The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote (Brexit). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:

Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 280
18%
Unlikely

The question Date first AGI is publicly known. asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.

Today, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 94
20%
Unlikely

Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 419
75%
Likely

Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film Sight (2012).

Researchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have been working on the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 237
7%
Very unlikely

Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet here.

If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111
54%
About Even

The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (scheduled for January 12, 2023). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 6%
Shares vol.: 4.0k
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 190
49%
About Even

Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a 92% chance according to a current Metaculus question. There is considerable speculation that Xi will...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 326
16%
Andy Burnham
15%
Rachel Reeves
10%
Angela Rayner
9%
Wes Streeting
9%
Yvette Cooper
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £59k
84%
Likely

The Open Philanthropy Project makes charitable grants based on what could be described as effective altruist principles: "global humanitarianism", "risk tolerance and patience", and "action in the face of humanity".

More broadly, the justification...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 88
19%
Unlikely

Pre-covid, several forecasters expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, several energy forecasters have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019.

According to the EIA, 2019 usage was 100.87...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 330
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a signal into space designed to let other civilizations know we're here.

The message, transmitted to a red dwarf star 12 light-years from Earth and contains...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 315
65%
Likely

Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices (World Bank, 2017). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty (World Bank, 2019)..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 236

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