AI voice synthesis is getting good https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-9Ado8D3A-w&feature=youtu.be

Will someone use this technology to create a fake recording of a politician saying something inflammatory, where the opposing party then points to this...

The question Date first AGI is publicly known. asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.

Today, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other...

On Dec. 31 2024 I will use the OpenAI API to query the highest capability model available at the time following the methodology outlined here and here. I will use the same prompts and sentences. Will at least five languages among those I tested today...

This market shall resolve to Yes if, by the End Date listed below, JD Vance is formally declared and announced excommunicated by the authority of the Roman Catholic Church. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at...

Resolves YES if a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (a rocket propelled using heat from a nuclear reaction) reaches space (defined as the Karman line, 100km altitude) before 2027. Otherwise NO.

Background:

NASA, DARPA to launch nuclear rocket to orbit by...

This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining...

Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has been involved in an array of legal battles post his presidency. Currently facing three indictments with the prospect of a fourth, his legal circumstances have sparked curiosity about the...

Jake Paul and Tommy Fury had a professional boxing match on 26th February, 2023, the result of which was that Tommy Fury won by Split Decision.

If they have another professional boxing match, then this market will resolve to YES if Jake Paul is the...

Resolves positive if any formal entity such as a government organization, political party, or paramilitary announces an official accusation.

Not sponsored.

"The chain was announced in July 2023.[7] The first CosMc's store opened on December 7, 2023 in Bolingbrook, Illinois.[9] The opening day saw a large queue of customers in the drive-thru.[9]

By 2024, McDonald's plans to have ten...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hormesis This question resolves once there is a generally-accepted answer to whether low levels of radiation have a beneficial effect on human health, even if the benefit is tiny.

Cornell professor Russell Rickford referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as exhilirating. Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community demanded that Rickford be fired. A petition to fire him gathered thousands of...

For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an 1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a...

Will resolve YES if the unemployment rate reaches 10% or higher at any point between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections in the United States according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Will resolve NO otherwise, after data for the whole...

If Claude Plays Pokémon is permanently taken offline, or has not yet gotten four badges by the market close, this resolves to NO.

Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would boom. We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.

Futurism explains:

According...

Must be legal in at least 48 states. (This is to allow for some holdouts, but not a patchwork of different regulations; they should be broadly legal in general.)

It's ok if they require some approval process, but it needs to be general and...

The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR, also known as Transnistria) is an unrecognized state on the border of Moldova and Ukraine. All UN nations, including Russia, formally consider Transnistrian territory to be part of Moldova. Russia does...

TSMC founder. 93yo now. Birthday July 10th.

Seems lucid in recent interviews. No public health issues I could easily find.

For the market, only manufacturers still producing BEVs will be considered.

this market is for a recent tweet from Elon Musk:

[tweet]his subsequent reply was that Grok - the twitter/X AI - will be Grand Master. the market is only for the claim that chess will be fully solved by May 2034, not that Grok specifically will take...