19%
Unlikely

Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.

Currently the USA is party to 6...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107
84%
Likely

The Open Philanthropy Project makes charitable grants based on what could be described as effective altruist principles: "global humanitarianism", "risk tolerance and patience", and "action in the face of humanity".

More broadly, the justification...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 121
79%
Donald Trump
12%
Nikki Haley
4%
Ron DeSantis
2%
Chris Christie
< 1%
Tim Scott
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 787k
53%
About Even

One way of dividing the space of possible futures is to consider whether transformative AI will lead to a singleton, which would be a huge change in the world order and a huge concentration of power, or a multipolar world, which would still be...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 34
25%
Unlikely

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In 2023 Ukraine commenced a counteroffensive, though as of October 30, 2023, Ukraine's gains have been modest, and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

<iframe...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 26
4%
Very unlikely

On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 (HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency, HHS.gov - End of COVID...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 123
Forecasters: 63
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 304
15%
Unlikely

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by 13 UN member states, and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. Opinion...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 200
72%
Likely

George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct. Santos has not...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 82
90%
Very likely

Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 38
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

An important concept in economic development is Financial Inclusion: the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 182
96%
Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.
4%
Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.
< 1%
Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
84%
Likely

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 253
29%
Unlikely

In 2020, Moody's downgraded the UK's long-term credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.

Since 2013, the UK has been downgraded from the highest rating by each of the Big Three credit...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 86
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The gold standard was a monetary system where the value of a country's currency was directly tied to a specific quantity of gold. Under this system, paper money and coins were convertible into a fixed amount of gold, creating stability in currency...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 65
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 251
97%
Virtually certain

Large language models have established a new state of the art in several areas of natural language processing. It is possible that they will also be widely accepted as the state of the art for machine translation (MT) within the year.

Every year,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80
29%
Denver Nuggets
18%
Los Angeles Lakers
13%
Another team
12%
Boston Celtics
12%
Golden State Warriors
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 32
Forecasters: 23
74%
Not before 1 October 2024
17%
Between 16 June 2024 and 30 September 2024
7%
Between 1 March 2024 and 15 June 2024
2%
Before 1 March 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 227
Forecasters: 195
74%
Not before 1 November 2024
11%
Between 1 June 2024 and 31 October 2024
10%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 May 2024
5%
Before 1 January 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 167
Forecasters: 55
18%
Unlikely

A tsunami is a wave or series of waves generated by the displacement of water from an energetic event such as an earthquake. Tsunamis can be enormously destructive and cause mass casualty events; the deadliest documented tsunami, in the Indian Ocean...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 110

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