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On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...
Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was cancelled after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.
After that, a group of developers...
There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the Controlled Substances Act
This article...
A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.
“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 80”
“NO” = “No there will not be a break after chapter...
In the 2 weeks following its appearance there
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from Kansas. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a...
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive..
based on the QS University Ranking 2021
I'm a German med student with little research experience but high motivation and ambition. This market resolves yes if I accept an offer and actually go. I'll be applying to at least 10 (probably around 20)...
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is a long-standing and complex issue characterized by recurring periods of tension, violence, and ceasefire agreements.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/06/14/middleeast/iran-israel-nuclear-facilities-damage-impact-intl
Israel claims to have caused significant damage to some of Iran's key nuclear sites, but Fordow still appears to be mostly unscathed.
The film "Ne Zha 2" (2025) is a box office sensation. Previously, the highest grossing movie in a single market was "The Force Awakens" with $936M in the US. "Ne Zha 2" has already surged past $1.2B, and could surpass $2B in China alone.
This market...
This is a market on whether Russia will control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on September 1, 2023. For the purposes of this market, LNR and DNR are defined at the January 1, 2014 borders. Thus this is a market on...
This question will resolve YES if the US Congress passes any legislation into law that creates or builds upon a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US; otherwise the market resolves NO. Passing the GENIUS Act and/or STABLE Act will...
This is the first in a three-part series of questions suggested by the Qualia Research Institute, with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting QualiaComputing.com
The three other questions...
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Upcoming 60 Minutes report:
[tweet]“Definitively Debunked” according to Michael Shermer:
[tweet][tweet]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havana_syndrome
various U.S. officials blamed the reported symptoms on a variety of unidentified and unknown...
Resolves positively if, by market close, Manifold Markets is acquired by a company or individual. Requires a sale of at least 50% of company equity for a positive resolution.
Resolves YES if, by the close date, a generative AI can render a video which is indistinguishable to an episode of the TV series "The Joy of Painting".
The episode is indistingushable if I can be shown the episode as well as a random episode from...
Related Question on Metaculus:
3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), also known as the club drug 'Ecstasy,' has properties long recognized as potentially useful for...
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