10%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In his book Extraterrestrial, Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as 'Oumuamua is "interstellar technology built by aliens".

Inspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded The Galileo Project in 2021 to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63
14%
Unlikely

As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Wikipedia

In a January 2024 interview, Sam Altman talked about...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 24
40%
At least 2.250 tcf, but less than 2.350 tcf
35%
At least 2.150 tcf, but less than 2.250 tcf
10%
At least 2.350 tcf, but less than 2.450 tcf
9%
At least 2.050 tcf, but less than 2.150 tcf
6%
2.450 tcf or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 64
Forecasters: 20
99%
Virtually certain

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

  • If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 88
49%
About Even

In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through export controls. However, there exists a loophole: while Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 28
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108
71%
3.6% or higher, but lower than 4.0%
26%
4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.4%
2%
Lower than 3.6%
< 1%
4.4% or higher, but lower than 4.8%
< 1%
4.8% or higher, but lower than 5.2%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 217
Forecasters: 62
5%
Very unlikely

US President John F. Kennedy's assassination on November 22nd, 1963 has long been the subject of numerous conspiracy theories. The majority of Americans believe in one or more of these conspiracies, however nothing has yet been definitively proven....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 27
20%
Unlikely

The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 in 1914.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 98
70%
Likely

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for A "Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science.


From the Federation of American Scientists:

**Many antibodies that scientists...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47
38%
Unlikely

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In 2023 Ukraine commenced a counteroffensive, though as of October 30, 2023, Ukraine's gains have been modest, and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

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★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 248
74%
Not before 11 August 2024
21%
Between 11 April 2024 and 10 August 2024
5%
Between 11 December 2023 and 10 April 2024
< 1%
Before 11 December 2023
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 292
Forecasters: 60
51%
Less than 8.0%
31%
At least 8.0%, but less than 16.0%
13%
At least 16.0%, but less than 24.0%
5%
At least 24.0%, but less than 32.0%
< 1%
At least 32.0%, but less than 40.0%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 149
Forecasters: 57
98%
Ola Kravchenko murdered Tair Rada.
1%
Roman Zdorov murdered Tair Rada.
< 1%
Between 1-4 Nofey Golan students murdered Tair Rada.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
9%
Very unlikely

Tether) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 197
27%
Unlikely

Norway is a member of the European Economic Area, but not a member of the EU. Norway held two referrendums on whether to join the EU, in 1972 and in 1994, which were rejected by 53.5% and 52.2% of the vote, respectively.

Following the war in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 184
95%
Very likely

The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, introduces deep learning,

This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 564
47%
About Even

New START is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until February 5, 2026.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 126
28%
Between $6.7 billion and $7.3 billion, inclusive
26%
More than $7.3 billion but less than $7.9 billion
19%
Between $7.9 billion and $8.5 billion, inclusive
13%
Less than $6.7 billion
7%
More than $8.5 billion but less than $9.1 billion
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 34
Forecasters: 16
51%
Yes, but he will win 50.0% or less of the vote
29%
Yes, and he will win more than 50.0% of the vote
11%
No, someone else will win
6%
No, Peter Meijer will win
4%
No, Justin Amash will win
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 22
Forecasters: 18

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