1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Second Amendment to the United States Constitution protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights.

An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247
3%
Very unlikely

Joe Biden won the 2020 US Presidential Election against incumbent President Donald Trump. Biden has since expressed his intention multiple times of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican party nominated Donald Trump again. However,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59
89%
Yes, both Finland and Sweden
10%
No
1%
Yes, Finland only
< 1%
Yes, Sweden only
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 483
Forecasters: 206
25%
Unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

As of May 2021, the Federation of American Scientists...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 85
25%
Unlikely

US-Russia relations have been strained and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended, due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 334
22%
Unlikely

Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 173
94%
Republican
6%
Democratic

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a...

★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 26k
60%
Likely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?

The Bank Secrecy Act of 1970 was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31
47%
About Even

David Segal is running as a Democrat for Congress in Rhode Island's 2nd District. The primary will take place on 13 September 2022.

Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?

This question will resolve as "Yes" if David Segal is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 65
13%
Unlikely

Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's largest private US companies by revenue for further examples.

However, for many companies, "going public" is a major milestone....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 113
43%
About Even

The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it hasn't always been this way. It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously failed to increase the size of the court...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 351
95%
Very likely

This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on October 1, 2022, 12 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, at the time of this market's resolution, Joe Biden is the President of the United States as officially...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Forecasts: 903
Liquidity: $49k
71%
Likely

The World Health Organization publishes a list of Variants of Concern (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added Omicron to this classification, bringing the total number of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 236
62%
Likely

In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted (technical paper) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
75%
Likely

China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 723
72%
Likely

The Future Fund is a philanthropic fund by the FTX Foundation that makes grants and investments to ambitious projects focused on improving humanity's long-term prospects. It hopes to grant at least $100 million in 2022, "and potentially a lot more"..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 46
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022.

***Who will win the 2022...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 45
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? [closed]

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 126
5%
Very unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? [closed]

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 124
3%
Very unlikely

Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like Eat Just can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in Singapore for $23.

And it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 150
20%
Unlikely

"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 96

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