43%
At least 244 million, but fewer than 254 million
21%
At least 234 million, but fewer than 244 million
20%
At least 254 million, but fewer than 264 million
6%
At least 224 million, but fewer than 234 million
5%
Fewer than 224 million
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 73
Forecasters: 53
68%
Likely

In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by 11 countries or blocs (Australia, Canada, the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 66
50%
About Even

Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by Christopher Molnar. Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 91
40%
About Even

In a blog post, Paul Christiano argues that we should consider preserving a message that would be uncovered by a potential future civilization that may arise on Earth if humanity goes extinct. He writes,

If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 209
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an agreement to purchase Figma for $20 billion USD.

Since then, reports have emerged that the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal.

Adobe previously created a product...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 93
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In July 2023, the US House of Representatives will hold a hearing related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP).

The hearing will be held by the House's Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs and will include...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 119
47%
At least 7.20, but less than 7.35
29%
At least 7.05, but less than 7.20
11%
At least 7.35, but less than 7.50
6%
At least 6.90, but less than 7.05
4%
7.50 or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 96
Forecasters: 35
42%
About Even

In 2019 OpenAI launched OpenAI LP,

a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.

The profit cap was intended to ensure that the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 206
6%
Very unlikely

Beginning with China's entry to the nuclear club in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's naval power in the South China Sea and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 32
34%
At least 4.50%, but less than 4.80%
29%
At least 4.20%, but less than 4.50%
21%
At least 3.90%, but less than 4.20%
10%
At least 4.80%, but less than 5.20%
4%
At least 3.60%, but less than 3.90%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 154
Forecasters: 43
42%
About Even

India has shifted from its heavy dependence on Russia for arms and weapons over the past several years, all while trying to balance the strength of its relationship with Moscow as Chinese military spending climbs (US News & World Report, BBC)....

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 61
Forecasters: 42
20%
Unlikely

Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 291
44%
About Even

Fallout from Azerbaijan's September 2023 conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, continues to put heavy pressure on Armenia's government (Economist, AP, Politico). Pashinyan staying on in a...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 68
Forecasters: 46
21%
Unlikely

In geopolitics, a "great power" is a nation that is widely recognized as having a large amount of military power and influence. As taken from this Metaculus question: for the purpose of this question, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
93%
Kevin McCarthy
9%
Hakeem Jeffries
7%
Nancy Pelosi
6%
Jim Jordan
4%
Steve Scalise
★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $3.1k
27%
At least 1.50%, but less than 3.00%
24%
At least 3.00%, but less than 4.50%
14%
At least 4.50%, but less than 6.00%
13%
At least 6.00%, but less than 8.00%
11%
At least 8.00%, but less than 10.00%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 57
Forecasters: 50
30%
Unlikely

Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a global biological catastrophe, an...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 104
70%
Likely

A Metaculus question asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are being developed for dogs, with the benefit of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 99
93%
Not before 1 July 2024
7%
Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024
< 1%
Before 1 January 2024
< 1%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 235
Forecasters: 66
12%
Unlikely

String theory

roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33)...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 162
75%
Likely

Fighting in Gaza since Hamas' 7 October 2023 attack and Israel's subsequent response have left the area at risk for famine (US News & World Report, World Health Organization, Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Integrated Food Security...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 288
Forecasters: 90

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