10%
Unlikely

Recent analyses have suggested that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 92
57%
Liberal Democrat
40%
Conservative
2%
Reform UK
1%
Labour
★★★☆☆
Betfair
Volume: £1.9k
9%
Very unlikely

In May 2024, Russian forces began to push into the Kharkiv Oblast in the north of Ukraine (BBC, The Hill). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 64
Forecasters: 37
4%
Very unlikely

In early April 2024, Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of the cryptocurrency firm Ripple, said stated in an interview that he predicts that the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market will double by the end of 2024 (CNBC). The outcome will be...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 64
Forecasters: 29
77%
Likely

The original offer to wager appeared here on June 10, 2015 at even odds.


Caplan writes:

Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:

“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 16
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The supposed room-temperature superconductor LK-99 has inspired lots of discussion. Among the replication attempts are claims that LK-99 is a superconductor at 110K Tc.

If it is, that would be a new family of unusually high temperature ambient...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 83
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 83
Forecasters: 50
20%
Unlikely

Since the end of the Second World War, no two Western countries have gone to war with each other. This is notable because wars between Western countries were once a regular occurrence.

This questions asks: will there be a war between two Western...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 99
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 291
12%
Unlikely

The question Date first AGI is publicly known. asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.

Today, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 179
62%
Likely

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines augmented reality (AR) as

an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 153
53%
About Even

Will we detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 45
80%
Likely

On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 297
30%
Unlikely

Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39
65%
At least $1,925, but less than $2,000
20%
At least $2,000, but less than $2,075
10%
At least $1,850, but less than $1,925
2%
At least $2,075, but less than $2,150
2%
Less than $1,850
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 47
Forecasters: 25
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?

Source: Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 271
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
55%
About Even

The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana">Pax Romana</a> was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, "The...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 745
15%
Unlikely

Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 33
70%
Likely

Cross-posted from ai.metaculus. Originally sourced from Science Bets.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 476

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