5%
Very unlikely

The Keystone Pipeline system is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.

The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 210
17%
Unlikely

What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 95
20%
Unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

The United Nations states:

"The Treaty on the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 73
60%
Likely

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is ongoing discussion on developing a "universal" coronavirus vaccine. One way to understand how wide-ranging different vaccine candidates might be in covering coronaviruses is to categorize them under the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 40
25%
Unlikely

Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to Our World In Data.

This figure has been widely questioned, e..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 368
9%
Very unlikely

The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called "Spanish Flu." Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 261
91%
Very likely

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST or "Webb") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 447
33%
Unlikely

In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.

***If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 335
37%
Unlikely

On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat. The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 273
49%
Between 7 and 9
32%
Between 10 and 12
10%
Between 4 and 6
8%
Between 13 and 15
1%
16 or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 182
Forecasters: 64
75%
Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25
24%
Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive
1%
Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive
< 1%
Lower than 1.75
< 1%
Higher than 3.75
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 134
Forecasters: 50
5%
Very unlikely

Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 134
27%
Unlikely

The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 313
35%
Unlikely

Praxis Society describes itself as a membership-based intentional community centered around building a city-cryptostate. Praxis Society is building a "city in the cloud" (i.e., the creation of a unified online community) prior to creating a physical...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 30
9%
Very unlikely

From Ballotpedia),

Elizabeth Kim (Democratic Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent New York's 10th Congressional District. She declared candidacy for the Democratic primary scheduled on August 23, 2022.

***Will Elizabeth...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 71
37%
Unlikely

On April 7, 2021 researchers at the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab published results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to speculation that it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47
85%
Likely

The US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics created the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) in the 2000s to address shortcomings of the Official Poverty Measure (OPM). Unlike the OPM, the SPM adjusts for in-kind benefits, tax liabilities, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39
67%
Likely

If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 400
20%
Unlikely

In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.

So how does one define that demarcation?

Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 165
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.

The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 14
75%
Luiz Lula da Silva
17%
Jair Bolsonaro
< 1%
Flávio Dino
< 1%
Ciro Gomes
< 1%
Guilherme Boulos
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 168k

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