13%
Unlikely

In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial pension reform bill, which he pushed through without a final vote by the National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution. ...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 117
32%
Unlikely

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNBC, Politico). For the...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 151
Forecasters: 74
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes.

This market is proposed by Animal Spirits.. The...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 1%
Shares vol.: 106k
50%
About Even

In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an executive order that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles.

Governor Brown, who in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 121
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Underlying is the one decimal value reported by the BLS. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 11k
14%
Unlikely

Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Island (News.com.au, Business Insider, Taipei Times, Yahoo). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 123
Forecasters: 58
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Wikipedia states:

"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 356
82%
Labour
18%
Conservative
< 1%
Liberal Democrat
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £1372k
35%
Unlikely

The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

Since the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 133
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Will Insight Prediction become a unicorn -- that is, a startup with a valuation of over $1 billion -- by the end of 2025? If yes, this market will resolve at one dollar. However, if Insight Prediction gains a valuation of $100 million or more, but...

★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $70k
51%
About Even

With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms, thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter (6th largest account), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 582
4%
Very unlikely

See the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis for some context relevant to this question.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 134
25%
Unlikely

In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman wrote,

To some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 232
18%
Unlikely

International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (Africa News, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 37
Forecasters: 16
25%
Unlikely

For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see here.

According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):

"The number of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 57
40%
About Even

For many years, Venezuela has been suffering a national crisis that includes hyperinflation, the decline of oil prices, frequent protests and brutal gang violence. As a result, millions of Venezuelans have fled the country.

Venezuelan President...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50
35%
Unlikely

Libor, the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 68
95%
The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).
< 1%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
46%
Spain
36%
Croatia
12%
Italy
6%
Netherlands
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 84
Forecasters: 35
80%
Likely

The US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics created the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) in the 2000s to address shortcomings of the Official Poverty Measure (OPM). Unlike the OPM, the SPM adjusts for in-kind benefits, tax liabilities, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 57
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Exchange uses two NWS products for its Underlying: (1) the Daily Climate Report for Miami, FL and (2) any location within the city limits of Miami, Florida included in an NWS Post-Storm Hurricane Report.

The market will expire on the first 10:00...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 1%
Shares vol.: 37k

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