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This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by July 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk....
Take a very simple, classical maze. For instance a 5x5 square maze like the following one:
[image]A human child should be able to solve it easily: starting from the opening at the top, the shortest solution is DLLDDRURDRDLDD, where each letter (D,...
The company's primary product offering must be a large language model or adjacent service.
AI chip startup IPO like Astera Labs in March 2024 would not count. AI applications to other industries would not count. Anthropic would count.
Resolves Dec...
Wikipedia: List of nicknames used by Donald Trump
I am not pre-committing to resolving based on that source, but it is very likely that I'd follow it.
I.e. if I need to decide what constitutes a "nickname", I'll look at this list, and decide "do I...
Resolves YES if some major components of the Google company get broken up due to the breakup plan under antitrust law. If a court ruling forces Google to break up in the near future before market close, that also is sufficient for a YES resolution..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-idf-palestinian-prisoner-alleged-rape-sde-teinman-abuse-protest/
As of this market's creation, there is ongoing civil unrest in Israel over the arrest and detention of several IDF reservists over the...
Will resolve as yes with in the month if his net worth hits 1 trillion USD (paper value).
End date is August 15th 2033 ... if no one/anyone else other than Elon (Satoshi doesn't count) becomes a trillionare this will resolve to no.
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Stream link: https://twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon
Resolves NO if the stream is inactive for over 10 days, unless an announced return date within 3 months is given, or an implied 3 months if no exact date is specified. If an announced return date...
Maybe they are still involved, but it’s easier to pose a question with concrete dates.
If serious evidence comes out regarding a romantic involvement between Barack and Jennifer at any point between 2017-2024, the answer will be “Yes.”
Serious...
Edge cases:
Has to be at least half of the area currently walled off from Isreal and Egypt.
International recognition is not necessary as long as both Egypt and Israel agree the area belongs to Egypt.
Does not have to be permanent but has to last...
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before January 1st 2026
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57...
Similar to this market, but for the period from Jan 1 2023 to Jan 1 2026, rather than just one year. Will resolve based on whether the ETH-BTC ratio reported by Google Finance goes up over that period.
Google Finance gives ETH/BTC of 0.072 at the...
Do you think we get a human on Mars by 2030?
On the second anniversary of the October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing (determined by Wikipedia status)?
See other war anniversary markets:
@/mattyb/on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-rus...
Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of the Moon before January 1st 2036 (and after 2023)
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d...
Has anyone ever thought/heard of paternity markets before?? If not, I just did. Let's Maury Povich this shit.
This resolves Yes if by the end of 2025 credible claims are made that RFK got someone pregnant who then had the baby while running for...
Not too much more to say. Resolves Yes if there's an algorithm that can factor big integers before 2035 in polynomial time on a classical computer. Resolves No if it's 2035 and there's still no algorithm.
Resolves NO if Rockstar releases another game before GTA6. expansions to GTA5 or RDD2 do not count
Things that would count
Bully 2
Red dead remeption remake
Agent
GTA remakes
Any other new title
Resolves on release day, not based on...
Resolves YES if the CCP is still in charge at the end of 2050. Resolves No if the CCP is out of power at any time before that.
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