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The idea of faster-than-light communication frequently appears in science fiction and theoretical discussions. The ability to communicate faster than the speed of light would allow for much more effective coordination of deep space missions, improved...
Resolves Yes if Destiny is engaged to be married to anyone for any length of time between now and the end of 2025 (anno domini)
Maxim Lott's analysis, when Claude 3 was released, is the basis for this question. A similar analysis will likely be published when GPT-5 is released, and that will be the basis for resolving this prediction.
https://www.maximumtruth..
Related Questions on Metaculus:
Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many...
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before August 1st 2025
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57...
I've heard rumors and that was enough to get me here to make a market.
Then I saw this (after I made the market, lol) https://x.com/farzyness/status/1866121558898393343
I'm going out on a major limb and taking the yes side of this and going Plus...
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from New Mexico. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a...
Resolves YES if I hear before end of 2025 of any example (including through the comments of this market) of a utility company publicly suggesting that its customers leave their home AC running full-blast during the day so that their house is cold...
The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire announcement regarding Gaza is made by any of the involved parties—such as Israel, Hamas, or recognized international mediators—between May 1, 2025, and May 31, 2025,...
Something like this: It's a vending machine with a speaker and a microphone and maybe a camera. It spots passers-by and tries to strike up conversations with them to convince them to purchases a cold drink, or a bag of chips, or whatever.
there have...
The growth rate in recent history has been about 3.5%.
Alireza reached 2800 rating in 2021 as the youngest player ever and he was ranked #2. But since then he had been struggling and dropped as low as 2737 after Candidates. Recently he gained some points back and is currently at 2745 in live ratings...
The People's Liberation Army Navy is a branch of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China (PRC). According to Wikipedia:
As of 2024, it is the second-largest navy in the world (behind the United States Navy) in terms of total...
By noteworthy we mean something like nominated to at least one Academy Award (or equivalent prize), or featured in most movie theaters, or in IMDB top 250
Sam Altman must be explicitly portrayed, no indirect references or characters based on...
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17185/deny-some-entities/
As of 16 January 2025, NHL player Alexander Ovechkin was on pace to set a new career goal record in the 2024-25 season, a record currently held by Wayne "The Great One" Gretzky (SB Nation, NHL Records - Most Goals Career, Sporting News). The 2024-25...
Another way to phrase this question could be "Will Pike.art be the new MidJourney for AI videos at the end of 2024?"
I will resolve this market by starting a poll 1 week before the end of the market asking whether Manifold users consider Pika.art to...
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