This market will resolve as "Yes" if, at any point in time before September 15th, 2023, Ukraine retakes control of any of the following central points in any of these cities, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): the...
Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article...
In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times reported that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.
Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that "In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least...
World War I was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.
World War...
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- Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?
Beginning in 2017, the government of China has detained over 1 million Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic...
In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern," over privacy concerns...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.11°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.11°C or greater for 2023 will...
Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust ("Lock him up!"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.
Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or...
In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, on Longbets Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,
A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than...
The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page.
A classic critique of cryonics is that the...
This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Much of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on...
Executive Order 6102, signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, prohibited the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the United States. The order was aimed at increasing the money supply during the Great...
In 2019 OpenAI launched OpenAI LP,
a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.
The profit cap was intended to ensure that the...
Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.
One of the most important papers31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American...
Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup...
With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A number of...
The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (US News & World Report, Soufan Center). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If...
As war continues in Ukraine, fights against corruption in the government continue (CBC, BBC, Guardian). The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a measure of a country's perceived levels of public sector corruption (Transparency International)....
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