Refers to upper stage only.

Successfully caught means remains in one piece allowing inspection. It does not have to be capable of reflight, a few serious scratches would be ok as vehicle could be inspected.

Will extend deadline until one occurs. If...

Resolves YES if an AI can beat me or a similarly-skilled player at least 4 times out of 10 games in a mirror-match. (The AI and I both have the same deck and the same amount of time, with at least 30 minutes per game.) Only the strategical decisions...

This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Russia repel Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region?

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, massively escalating a conflict sparked in 2014 by the Maidan Revolution...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nara Smith and/or Lucky Blue Smith announce their intention to divorce between December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31,...

Will Joe Biden be ranked below George W Bush in the next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey? Market resolves based on the next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey results, expected in early 2025.

https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is formally impeached by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to...

Resolves YES if after April 1, 2024 and by the end of April 1, 2029 (UTC), anyone successfully redirects an asteroid.

The DART mission (which took place before the time window for this question) is an example.

It will count as a successful asteroid...

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily...

Resolves when Watson either announces retirement or plays another game. Close date will be extended as necessary.

This market resolves to “Yes” if, by the end date specified below, any credible and official source indicates that Luigi Magione’s legal defense team has formally presented, in either written court filings or oral court arguments, a defense theory or...

In October 2022, the US instituted new, wide-ranging export controls aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically...

https://x.com/GovMurphy/status/1881451151456879015

The U.S. military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, a U.S. official told Nikkei, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to enhance deterrence against China..

Resolves as YES if Donald Trump is president of the United States when artificial general intelligence is first created.

Resolves yes 🟩 if Andrew tate is found guilty of any crimes.

Resolves no🟥 if 2025 ends and he is not found guilty.

Feel free to add suggestions to the market and provide necessary updates.

🟦If this market becomes popular I will upgrade it to...

Requires at least 3 articles from traditionally reputable news organizations reporting that some U.S. actors have lost income, job security, or hiring velocity as a result of AI-based automation.

I won't be proactively searching for such articles -...

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2035.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b...

86.05% (37 out of 43) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 91.67% of the time.

Based on a prediction made in this article:

https://meidasnews.com/news/what-went-wrong-how-to-fix-it

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may...