Resolves YES if/when a user legitimately reaches a daily trading streak of 1000. Resolves NO if the streak feature is permanently sunset, the site shuts down, or it is decided by Manifold admins that this question is no longer relevant.

Otherwise,...

Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence before the end of 2029. It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing. House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official...

Resolves YES if the war in Gaza lasts longer than two years from October 7th.

Will google cloud earnings be at least 50% of AWS earnings by Q1 2025?

2022 Q4 revenue: GCP: $7bn AWS: $21bn

Resolves based on the which team advances.

Bodo/Glimt: Yes

Lazio: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile test between April 18, 3:00 PM ET and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The market resolution will be based on publicly available...

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only...

Resolves positively if, by market close, Manifold Markets is acquired by a company or individual. Requires a sale of at least 50% of company equity for a positive resolution.

According to a YouGov poll 52% believe that Trump "definitely" or "probably" will attempt a 3rd term.

Resolves YES if there is clear and unequivocal evidence that Trump:

Runs for a 3rd presidential term

Attempts to subvert the 22nd Amendment in...

Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.

https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952

At the bottom of above link is the...

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB World Series.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the World Series based on the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this...

In the upcoming EPL game, scheduled for May 1 at 2:30PM ET, If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If not, this market will resolve to “No”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC has completely ended its recommendation for the listed vaccine, meaning it no longer recommends it for any category of individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM EY. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...

Resolves YES if the US Congress proposes a Constitutional amendment (which requires a 2/3 vote in both the House and Senate) between now and the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO.

A proposed amendment then requires ratification by 3/4 of states to...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if DOGE or Elon Musk confirm that gold is missing from Fort Knox between March 10, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Only definitive statements which are based on...

If the National Bureau of Economic Analysis says that a recession started before election day 2024 and a Democrat wins the election, this market resolves to YES.

I'll wait until September 1st 2025 whether NBER calls a recession. Then I'll resolve to...

This will resolve yes if Donald Trump is elected and the department of education’s authority/power is significantly limited in any way. This will also resolve yes if the department of education is merged with another department (like the department...

NANOGrav recently made headlines by observing the stochastic gravitational waves background produced by the combination of many supermassive black hole binaries. Will a Pulsar Timing Array successfully pinpoint and resolve a specific supermassive...

The National Science Foundation (NSF) is a key federal agency supporting basic research and education across science and engineering fields. The NSF's current FY 2024 budget is $9.06 billion, and the FY 2025 budget request is $10.183 billion. There...

On 16 January 2024, Iran conducted deadly missile strikes inside Iraq and Pakistan that they allege were targeting terrorist groups within the two countries (New York Times). Iraq and Pakistan both recalled their ambassadors to Iran in response to...