https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/un-human-rights-office-opt-unlawful-killings-gaza-city

Resolves based on whether this turns out to be generally true. A minor detail wrong like it being 10 men instead of 11 won't prevent...

Resolves once I have the opportunity to view the Earth from space and can confirm the answer directly with my own eyes.

I'll require that we be in orbit or otherwise going "around" the Earth so that I can confirm it's actually a ball and not just a...

Resolves as YES if United States 10-year treasuries trade at a yield over 10% some time before 2026.

Resolves as YES if 10-year treasuries trade at a yield of 10% or more in any major market.

Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)

[image]5

Market resolves if TSLA reaches >=$575 at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8 in the year 2025 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.

Adjusts if stock splits

An estimated rating is fine. Filtering out illegal moves is allowed.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a final ruling in favor of President Donald Trump in the case of Trump v. Wilcox by December 31, 2027. A ruling in favor of Trump would affirm his authority to...

This question will resolve yes if AGI is achieved using LLMs and there is at least some philosophical consensus that language (with enough relational complexity) is sufficient to give rise to human-level reasoning.

Very open to alternate/more...

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-government-young-engineers/

Akash Bobba, Edward Coristine, Luke Farritor, Gautier Cole Killian, Gavin Kliger, and Ethan Shaotran

Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.

'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.

Resolution will...

Based on this article:

https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/

For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.

The orbit has to be stable

OR if it’s unstable it has to...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market...

Will any U.S. Senator or U.S. Representative (regardless of party), or any federal judge, be arrested and held without bail for at least 24 hours, before February 1st, 2029?

Update 2025-04-28 (PST): - The individual must be a current U.S. Senator, U..

Belarus established relations with the European Union after gaining independence in 1991, but these relations deteriorated after Alexander Lukashenko became the leader in 1994. The EU has condemned Lukashenko's government for its authoritarian and...

! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !

Yes = heads

No = tails

(Day 313)

Current totals: 161 heads vs 151 tails

Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)

Yesterday’s flip: YES

@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome

1 =...

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this...

Judge Boasberg recently found that 'probable cause exists' to hold the Trump administration officials in criminal contempt. Trump has called for Boasberg to be impeached prior to this.

This question resolves Yes if Judge Boasberg ceases to be a...