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Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2025?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

@/YaakovSaxon/will-retatrutide-new-obesity-drug-b

@/YaakovSaxon/will-retatrutide-new-obesity-drug-b-401d4ca6a3f6 <-- you are here

@/YaakovSaxon/will-retatrutide-new-obesity-drug-b-3fc5a82496d3

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M382
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

By "new" I mean any virus that is not a close mutation of any other viruses that currently in 2023 predictably infect humans

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M2.0k
Is the Destiny / Nick Fuentes sex tape real?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

https://www.tribune.com.pk/story/2512917/alleged-leaked-sex-tape-of-streamer-destiny-and-nick-fuentes-surfaces-online

Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that a lack of new information over a period of...

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 36
Volume: M8.5k
How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-07

When I get access to Sora, I will generate a 10 second video at 1080p resolution. The market will resolve to X%, where X is the number of seconds between the moment I press the "generate" button to the moment I can start playing the video. If it...

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M1.6k
What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 6 June 2025?
38%
At least 105.00, but less than 115.00
24%
At least 95.00, but less than 105.00
18%
At least 115.00, but less than 125.00
9%
At least 85.00, but less than 95.00
7%
At least 125.00, but less than 135.00
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 33
Forecasters: 21
Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?
77%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Or build their own. Any 1st party integration of any prediction market (either real money or otherwise) will resolve to yes.

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M404
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-07-11

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Chile on November 16, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate that wins this...

Last updated: 2025-07-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $44k
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

As of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI,...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 66
Will any member country leave BRICS before 2035?
71%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

BRICS is a group of countries that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, acting as a competitor and political counterweight to the G7 group of countries . In 2024, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 84
Will President Trump say “Scam Altman” before March 31st?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-31

Will President Trump sour on Sam Altman and refer to him as “Scam Altman” before March 31st?

Last updated: 2025-03-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 37
Volume: M15k
Will Tucker Carlson relocate to Russia and spend more than two consecutive months there by December 31, 2025?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1f8ixvh/mmw_tucker_carlson_is_going_to_move_to_russia/

[image]Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

Tucker Carlson moves to...

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M3.1k
Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 35% and 40% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-07-11

This market will resolve according to the first round ranked-choice vote share for Andrew Cuomo in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, scheduled for June 24, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then...

Last updated: 2025-07-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $569
Will Pope Leo XIV meet with Cristiano Ronaldo in 2025?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-07-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Pope Leo XIV between May 20, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual...

Last updated: 2025-07-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.7k
Will Malaysia and Indonesia merge by the end of 2030?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-13

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Indonesia

Last updated: 2025-03-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M425
Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The United States Census takes a census every 10 years. In the most recent census in 2020, the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to some developed nations whose populations are declining, though population growth...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 143
Will Chelsea beat PSG?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-07-11

In the upcoming FIFA Club World Cup Final game, scheduled for July 13 at 3:00PM ET, If Chelsea wins, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Chelsea loses, this market will resolve to “No”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until...

Last updated: 2025-07-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $160k
Will the San Diego Padres win the NL West Division?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-07-11

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB NL West Division.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the NL West Division based on the rules of the MLB, this market will immediately resolve to “No” for that...

Last updated: 2025-07-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.5k
will the "AI movie to a prompt" market stay above 65% for a week straight before the end of 2025?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

Must not dip below 65% at any point during a week straight to resolve YES. If this has not happened at the end of 2025, resolves NO

The market in question:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener) (I'll...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 52
Volume: M38k
Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?
60%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Despite Kepler’s recent end of mission the search for exoplanets continues. While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.

As of this...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 288
Will 5,000+ people live in the city of Praxis before 2030?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-10

The location does not necessarily need to be named Praxis, as long as it is directly connected with the organization of that name today.

https://www.cityofpraxis.com/

[link preview]

Last updated: 2025-03-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 41
Volume: M3.5k
Will the USA have a national Carbon Tax by the end of 2030?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-03

If the United States has a federal system for broadly levying taxes or fees on domestic carbon emissions by 2030, this market will resolve YES.

A Cap & Trade system would likely not meet these requirements and so would resolve NO.

This market will...

Last updated: 2025-05-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.6k

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