20%
Unlikely

In 1965, the Gros Michel Banana was declared "commercially extinct", owing to a world-wide outbreak of Fusarium Wilt (or Panama Disease). Fusarium, a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 153
45%
About Even

Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a period of transition in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. ...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 87
50%
About Even

Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of the Electoral College. A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be selected by Congress if no candidate receives more than 269 votes..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1428
35%
Unlikely

Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of decreasing fraction of value added by the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries to global GDP. This trend is largely due to the increasing industrialization and modernization of many...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 67
15%
Unlikely

Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31
40%
About Even

As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 514
45%
More than $21,000.0 billion
40%
Between $20,500.0 billion and $21,000.0 billion, inclusive
11%
More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,500.0 billion
2%
Between $19,500.0 billion and $20,000.0 billion, inclusive
1%
Less than $18,500.0 billion
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 165
Forecasters: 27
40%
About Even

In October 2021, at the 77th IATA Annual General Meeting in Boston, a resolution was passed by IATA member airlines committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050.

Exploratory work is ongoing to achieve flight...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 72
39%
Higher by between 2.75% and 3.50%, inclusive
35%
Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 2.75%
14%
Higher by between 1.25% and 2.00%, inclusive
6%
Lower than 1.25%
5%
Higher by more than 3.50% but less than 4.25%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 479
Forecasters: 267
60%
About Even

As the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (Yahoo Finance, CNBC). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls)...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 805
Forecasters: 267
30%
Charles Leclerc
22%
Sergio Perez
14%
Lewis Hamilton
11%
Another driver
8%
Max Verstappen
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 22
Forecasters: 21
36%
Between 10 years and 20 years, inclusive
36%
More than 20 years but less than 30 years
21%
30 years or more
5%
Less than 10 years
2%
No sentencing will occur before 1 October 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 112
Forecasters: 45
4%
Very unlikely

AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 253
20%
Unlikely

A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 169
9%
Very unlikely

NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement, though domestic political pressures are threatening unity (Politico, US News & World Report, NATO). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 181
Forecasters: 114
74%
Likely

There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea.

The Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 100
3%
Very unlikely

The Kuril Islands Dispute is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 163
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1218
19%
Unlikely

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) normally requires clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines. This is usually true even in emergency situations in which a public health emergency (PHE) has been declared: for...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 206
51%
About Even

Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of intelligence and mental illness. Many physical traits, such as height, attractiveness, strength, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 137
72%
Likely

An oracle (Wikipedia, Lesswrongwiki) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a general AI, and it may help to solve the safety...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 322

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