Which party will win the popular vote in Alabama at the 2024 US presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward...

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market...

Starting in the 19th century, there has been a long-term movement towards legal and societal equality for women, removing restrictions such as them voting or owning property. In the 1970s, European monarchies began questioning their laws that give...

The bitcoin mining doesn’t need to produce a bitcoin.

In the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game between Ventforet Kōfu and Júbilo Iwata, scheduled for May 6 at 1:00 AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Ventforet Kōfu and Júbilo Iwata combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Delaware.

If no 2026 Delaware Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West and/or Bianca Censori announce their intention to legally separate or divorce between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by...

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 10 at 3:30PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Sam Altman: I expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes

Will this statement prove true?

Resolution will be based on my best subjective...

According to OpenAI's charter from 2018:

"OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity. We will...

Folks like @pauseAI and @ai_in_check and other "Doomers" suggest that China is already more regulated than the west when it comes to AI.

This questions resolves to yes if China submits to voluntary inspections regimes of their public and private...

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A...

Resolves positively if, by market close, Manifold Markets is acquired by a company or individual. Requires a sale of at least 50% of company equity for a positive resolution.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total...