80%
Likely

*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. Click here to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59
17%
Unlikely

What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 95
54%
About Even

Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 764
85%
Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT
6%
Ferrari
5%
Mercedes
4%
Aston Martin Aramco Mercedes
< 1%
Another team
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 51
Forecasters: 38
3%
Very unlikely

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of the Eurozone. For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency quotes:

Achim Truger, a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 295
44%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive
34%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%
11%
Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%
6%
Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive
4%
Higher by 3.0% or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 139
Forecasters: 34
39%
More than $100 million but less than $150 million
26%
Between $150 million and $200 million, inclusive
19%
Between $50 million and $100 million, inclusive
13%
More than $200 million but less than $250 million
2%
Less than $50 million
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 52
Forecasters: 25
65%
More than 4.0% but less than 5.5%
35%
Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive
< 1%
Less than 2.5%
< 1%
Between 2.5% and 4.0%, inclusive
< 1%
More than 7.0%
★★★★☆
Good Judgment
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 219
26%
Unlikely

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 259
78%
Likely

A large number of undeciphered, encrypted handwritten documents exist in historical archives, particularly from the late middle ages to the early 1800s. Many of these documents relate to political or diplomatic affairs. As of this writing few have...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107
91%
No
6%
Yes, but Ebrahim Raisi will not become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 and/or will have fled
3%
Yes, and Ebrahim Raisi will become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 without fleeing
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 310
Forecasters: 66
58%
About Even

The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on 21 July, 2019. According to Wikipedia, the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 38
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about providing Ukraine with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has also made...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 30
80%
Likely

Longevity escape velocity is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life

longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 210
16%
Unlikely

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 271
85%
Likely

This is a market on whether Russia will control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on September 1, 2023. For the purposes of this market, LNR and DNR are defined at the January 1, 2014 borders. Thus this is a market on...

★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $4.0k
12%
Unlikely

The market will close at 4:00 PM ET on || Date ||. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET after the release of the data, or one week after || Date ||.

Please note that this market is not in a mutually exclusive group. That...

★★★★☆
Kalshi
Spread: 4%
Shares vol.: 32k
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing Nexit, Frexit and Quitaly.

Some commentators argue that Brexit is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1363
5%
Very unlikely

The Underlying is the one decimal value reported by the BLS. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 4%
Shares vol.: 35k
8%
Very unlikely

Trinity) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 200

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