This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023. The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis..
This market shall resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin holds the office of President of Russia without interruption through December 31st, 2023. Resolution Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
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This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by December 31st, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...
In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of...
Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused a...
On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV floated the idea of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin said:
If somebody’s actions threaten our...
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In 2023 Ukraine commenced a counteroffensive, though as of October 30, 2023, Ukraine's gains have been modest, and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.
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The ICJ has issued an injunction calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert has suggested that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.
Ukraine has indicated they are at least considering...
From NATO's site:
- In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September...
In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the eastern frontline, though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties...
Related Question on Metaculus:
President Zelenskyy of Ukraine formally applied to join the European Union on Monday, February 28, 2022.
"We ask the European Union for Ukraine’s immediate...
The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...
Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:
On August 6, 2024, Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast, advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days.
After 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain..
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