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Will the US officially recognize the sovereignty of the State of Palestine by 2030?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves to YES once that happens

Resolves to NO in 2030

I will use sources such as these to resolve to YES: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine https://worldpopulationreview..

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M3.3k
AI market crash by the end of 2026?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

@MarcusAbramovitch and Remmelt have made a $5k:$25k bet on exactly this question. Links to EA Forum and LessWrong where they announced the bet.

An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M2.8k
Will a new language be used at the next Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_languages_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest

Since 1999 there has been no rule stating that countries have to sing only in their own national languages.

In 2021 lyrics in Sranan Tongo were sang for the first...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M876
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
82%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

To qualify, the crisis should be listed here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis

If Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 147
Volume: M45k
Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Background:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin

Given the troubles Johnson went through to become speaker, many believe there will be upcoming fights over the budget, debt ceiling, and government shutdowns. President Trump can get...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 76
Volume: M45k
Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.

This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 133
Volume: M78k
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2070, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 51
Volume: M14k