This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any...

This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory

[link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17...

As of Today, wikipedia says of the lab leak

[image]Will Wikipedia state the lab leak theory as the origin of covid before 2030? the article must support lab leak for at least a week for it to be accepted in this market.

Pandemic severity tradeoffs include mortality, transmissibility, scale, and any other relevant considerations.

Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), increasing 410 million tonnes (Mt) to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt).

Here is the graph for the past few years.

China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was...