49%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.
29%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.
15%
Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.
5%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.
2%
Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
89%
The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.
5%
The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.
3%
The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers.
3%
The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) is defined by <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/annex-2-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29" target="_blank">WHO</a> as "an extraordinary event which is...

★★★★☆
Good Judgment

Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as Israel.

Sufficiently widespread vaccination (and natural antibodies from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 154
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 412
70%
Likely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?

There have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 191
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 174

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 148

On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern regarding the COVID-19 in China. They declared that the outbreak had become a pandemic on 2021-03-11 . The declarations are typically renewed...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 360
4%
Very unlikely

Note that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occurred, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for December 31, 2022, or 10:00 AM on January 05, 2023.

Please...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 779k

The United States is one of a handful of countries to still prohibit entry of unvaccinated foreign nationals. The vaccine requirement for foreign nationals was imposed by President Biden on October 25, 2021 by presidential proclamation and has no...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 12
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 637

As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 407
7%
Very unlikely

Please note: In the event that the CDC is no longer publishing daily case totals at the Expiration Time, the seven-day average shall be calculated by dividing the CDC-published weekly case totals by 7.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 3%
Shares vol.: 168k

According to the New York Times, the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 232
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188
8%
Very unlikely

The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1885

A new COVID variant is on the rise in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's variant proportions Nowcast. The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35

Most scientists now believe that, even with the vaccines, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will continue to circulate throughout the globe for many years to come. The new Delta variant has prompted new alarm and triggered again calls for indoor masking and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247
4%
Very unlikely

SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.

SARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 155
33%
Unlikely

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 123

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