MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?
Last updated: 2024-10-07
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 82
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 151
Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a "top charity" before 2027?
43%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 14 charity areas including breastfeeding promotion.

The following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic:

“The World Health...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 124
In 2027, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, especially children, from dying from malaria.

GiveWell are a charity that...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 32
How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
Last updated: 2024-10-07

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.

GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell moved $152 million in 2019.

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 24
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 40
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 419
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Note: This question is about how many months SBF will be sentenced to prison before 2030. See this question for the same question but about 2026 instead.

Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange....

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 190
If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Another question in this tournament asks Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?.

Denkenberger & Pearce (2016) write:

"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-01-06
Last updated: 2025-01-06
★★☆☆☆
Foretold
Forecasts: 6
At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-01-06
Last updated: 2025-01-06
★★☆☆☆
Foretold
Forecasts: 3
Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Fortify Health becomes a top charity.
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
New Incentives is a top charity in 2018
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
New Incentives is a top charity in 2016
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
New Incentives is a top charity in 2017
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
R4D or an R4D program is a top charity
40%
About Even
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-01-06
Last updated: 2025-01-06
★★☆☆☆
Foretold
Forecasts: 5

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus