★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 82
36%
Unlikely

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 149
40%
About Even

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 14 charity areas including breastfeeding promotion.

The following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic:

“The World Health...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 118

The Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, especially children, from dying from malaria.

GiveWell are a charity that...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 30

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.

GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell moved $152 million in 2019.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 24

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 40

Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 399

Note: This question is about how many months SBF will be sentenced to prison before 2030. See this question for the same question but about 2026 instead.

Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 184
40%
About Even

Another question in this tournament asks Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?.

Denkenberger & Pearce (2016) write:

"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 81
★★☆☆☆
Foretold
Forecasts: 3
★★☆☆☆
Foretold
Forecasts: 6
15%
Unlikely

Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
15%
Unlikely

Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
25%
Unlikely

Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
10%
Unlikely

Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
10%
Unlikely

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
13%
Unlikely

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
15%
Unlikely

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
40%
About Even

Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
50%
About Even

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)

★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
45%
About Even
★★☆☆☆
Foretold
Forecasts: 5

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