91%
The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.
4%
The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.
4%
The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.
< 1%
The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
93%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
4%
The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
2%
Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.
< 1%
Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
< 1%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
54%
Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III).
31%
Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee.
8%
Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).
5%
Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee.
1%
Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 22

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 28

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