45%
About Even

Professional tennis is divided into two tours, the ATP for men and the WTA for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following Roger Federer's tweet in 2020:

Just...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
70%
Likely

The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 367
46%
Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024
43%
Before 1 July 2024
11%
Not before 1 January 2025
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 90
Forecasters: 22

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform that enables the creation and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps).

The platform's native cryptocurrency is Ether (ETH), which is used to pay for...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63
25%
Unlikely

This is a market about whether the SOL/ETH price according to Binance reaches a new recent high by January 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET.

If the SOL/ETH price is greater than .05538 (reached on December 25, 2023 ET) at any point between December 28, 2023 and...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
20%
Unlikely

Note: This market is denominated in Ethereum. This market will pay out one unit of ethereum for each Yes contract in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President by the end of January, 2025. One can buy fractional shares on this market....

★★☆☆☆
Insight
85%
Likely
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
17%
Unlikely

Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens are securities, and in June 2023, the SEC charged both Coinbase and Binance with...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

At present, the leading answer, by a significant margin, to Eliezer Yudkowsky's Manifold Markets question, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?", is "Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 125
63%
Likely

According to physicsworld,

When numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 110
53%
At least 18.0%, but less than 24.0%
25%
At least 12.0%, but less than 18.0%
16%
At least 24.0%, but less than 30.0%
3%
At least 30.0%, but less than 36.0%
2%
Less than 12.0%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 38
Forecasters: 16
59%
Between 80 and 89
27%
Between 90 and 99
13%
Between 70 and 79
1%
Between 100 and 109
< 1%
Between 60 and 69
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 47
Forecasters: 20

An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.

By March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to Hackernoon....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 169
11%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if $Bitcoin (HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu) reaches a new all time high between December 28, 2023 ET and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $1.0k
11%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the...

★★☆☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $47
52%
About Even

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is an American publicly-traded spaceflight company founded by Richard Branson. The company is developing commercial spacecraft and aims to provide suborbital spaceflights to space tourists.

The company went public...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 364
42%
About Even

In February 2023, Yahoo News (as well as Delfi Estonia, the Dossier Center, Expressen, Kyiv Independent, and others) received a leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office. This document outlines a detailed plan of Russia taking...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 160
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will the US break up Meta Platforms?

Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company is the parent...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 233
9%
Very unlikely

On July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines announced that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
15%
Unlikely

*This question and the background material below are copied from a similar question. While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 18

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