30%
Unlikely

Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. As of May 2021, the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 96
34%
Unlikely

The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes that:

"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 134
19%
Unlikely

Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of counterforce targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of countervalue targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
9%
Very unlikely

Trinity) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 193
14%
Unlikely

For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see here.

***Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 41
26%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

  • How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
25%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?

  • How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 196
81%
Likely

The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 68
77%
Likely

What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 129
15%
Unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

  • Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
58%
About Even

Related questions on Metaculus::

  • What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?

  • Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 129
62%
Likely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

  • If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 49
33%
Unlikely

According to the US EMP Commission (2004):

"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 88
25%
Unlikely

Some people (e.g., Rodriguez, 2019a, 2019b) have argued that:

  • It's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)

  • If that happens,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 130
5%
Very unlikely

On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations.

***Will a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 574
6%
Very unlikely

A nuclear detonation by a non-state actor could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but there are conceivable scenarios...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 89
32%
Unlikely

Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 53
39%
Unlikely

Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 53
15%
Unlikely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

Currently, nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads. Over the coming decades, it's...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 245

Antarctica remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 132

For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see here.

For the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 49

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