8%
Very unlikely

Trinity) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 213

For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see here.

For the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 51
32%
Unlikely

The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of nuclear winter effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 100

Kimball (2020) writes:

"The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits “any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion” anywhere in the world. The treaty was opened for signature in September 1996, and has been signed by 185...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107

Related Questions on Metaculus:

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In 2014, Russia invaded...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 147
27%
Unlikely

60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is from Russia and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by Russia/USSR. The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 74
30%
Unlikely

Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. As of May 2021, the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 153
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Barrett et al. (2013) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:

  • "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 186
3%
Exceptionally unlikely

Barrett et al. (2013) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:

  • "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 409
4%
Very unlikely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Barrett et al. (2013) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:

  • "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 210
16%
Unlikely

Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of counterforce targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of countervalue targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 146
6%
Very unlikely

According to Wikipedia:

"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1980
26%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 602
9%
Very unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

According to a Congressional Research Service report:

"While...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 139
75%
Likely

As of 2021, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.

A few other states possessed nuclear weapons in the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 68
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 174
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075? [closed]

  • How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

  • Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?


As of March 2022, the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 86
4%
Very unlikely

_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular a "by 2023" version of this same question..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 567
90%
Very likely

Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a Nuclear Risk tournament. Most of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 143

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