7%
Very unlikely

Trinity) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 303
45%
About Even

From Wikipedia,

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 117
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80

Currently, there are roughly 12,700 nuclear weapons in possession of the nations of the world. This number has decreased substantially since the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, leading some to believe that dismantlement of all nuclear weapons...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 19
70%
Likely

Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.

See also Collection of questions on nuclear targeting.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 92
51%
About Even

Iran has currently been accused of violating the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 956
55%
About Even

According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the "low-200s" (page 92). Compared to the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 170
75%
Likely

A previous Metaculus question asked if Iran would get a nuke by 2030, and other questions have also asked about Iran's substantial nuclear program.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 216
20%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 739
77%
Not before 11 August 2024
20%
Between 11 April 2024 and 10 August 2024
2%
Between 11 December 2023 and 10 April 2024
1%
Before 11 December 2023
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 415
Forecasters: 82

In September 2021, the Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that Australia would scrap its existing contract for Attack-class submarines with France and instead build nuclear-powered submarines with the support of the United States and United...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 70
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 174

According to the Federation of American Scientists there were 13,150 nuclear warheads in existence in 2021*. This number includes retired warheads. Nuclear stockpiles peaked in 1986 at an estimated 64,400 warheads, and have declined with the end of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31
58%
About Even

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with nine countries currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 120
5%
Very unlikely

60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is from Russia and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by Russia/USSR. The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 142
41%
About Even

Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a period of transition in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. ...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:

  • In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine...
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 307

What types of offensive nuclear detonation would occur given nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.

Non-strategic nuclear weapons (also known...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 22

Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to the Federation of American Scientists).

  • Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads

  • US: 5,550...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 329

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

As of September 2020, the Federation of Atomic Scientists estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 54
80%
Likely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 405

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