Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan.

Resolves 50% if a human steps on the Moon.

Resolves NO if an offensive nuclear explosion happens.

Whichever event happens first after the market opening resolves this market. If nothing happens before the...

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/macron-france-nuclear-arsenal-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

France will consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to its allies, French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday, while warning...

Resolves YES if a nuclear bomb is used against an enemy target by any nation at any point between Trump’s inauguration and (hopeful) exit from office. If Trump dies this question will apply to JD Vance’s administration.

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31298)I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution: This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2025, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct...