*Related Question on Metaculus:*

* [Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12363/2023-nfl-super-bowl-winners/)

----

The National Football Leage of [American Football](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football) consists of 32 teams.  NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the [most watched TV broadcast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_television_ratings) of the year in the United States.

32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the [AFC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Football_Conference) and [NFC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_Conference).  From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the [playoffs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_playoffs).  In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4.

***Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the [National Football League](https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl).  All other teams will resolve as **No**.

[fine-print]
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as **Ambiguous**.

The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution.  Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.
[/fine-print]

Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens))

*Related Questions on Metaculus:*

* [Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)

* [Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)

----

On [elections scheduled for November 8, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections), US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate.  As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.

Democratic President Joe Biden said at A DNC party on [December 14, 2021](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/12/15/biden_to_republicans_get_ready_youre_in_for_a_problem_were_going_to_win_in_2022.html),

> I just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022.  I really mean it. 

Republican Senator Rick Scott [said to Fox Business](https://www.deseret.com/2021/11/19/22787494/republicans-chances-to-take-back-congress-in-2022-are-looking-good-utah-redistricting-gop) on the same day,

> We’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”

Generic congressional ballot data shows Republicans with a [1.6 percentage point lead](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/) over Democrats on December 22, 2021.  Biden has a [-8 percentage point](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) net approval rating as of December 2021.

FiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has [reported](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-flurry-of-democratic-departures-means-for-the-2022-house-race/) a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House, arguing this is a signal of good prospects for Republicans.

***Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?***

After the conclusion of the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), if one party has more than 50% of seats in that chamber of congress, that party will be considered to control that chamber.

For the Senate, if seats are tied exactly 50-50 between two parties, the Senate will be "controlled" by the party of the President.

Independents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members.

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House))

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their || Meeting || meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's February meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if before the resolution time of this market of January 1, 2023, 12 AM ET, Donald John Trump or his authorized representative does at least one of the following:
- Files a Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
- Amends an existing Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the FEC
- Designates a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election
- Otherwise files or communicates with the FEC with the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for the 2024 election

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note that any informal declarations by Donald Trump and/or his representatives regarding Trump's intentions to run will have no bearing on this market; only the above criteria will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve based on the official FEC website https://www.fec.gov/ though a consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the [most recent round](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/world/europe/peace-talks-russia-ukraine.html) of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29. 

[According to Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/france-ukraine-macron-nato-russia-security-guarantee-russia-1696367), in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia cannot end without concrete security guarantees strong enough to deter Moscow."

Sebastian Sprenger from Defense News [wrote on April 4, 2022](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/04/europeans-weigh-scope-of-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/), 

>    "Last week, Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, said her government envisions a security-guarantees regime endorsed by Budapest Memorandum signatories as well as the United Nations Security Council. [...]

>    "Sean Monaghan, an analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the legal format of whatever security guarantees the West can muster for Ukraine will be ultimately secondary. More important, and difficult, he told Defense News, will be the willingness of European populations to back them by military force."

As of April 6, 2022, Ukraine has [entered confidential talks with Germany](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-confidential-talks-over-ukraine-guarantees-scholz-2022-04-06/) about possible security guarantees Germany could offer the country.  On April 9, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [visited Kyiv](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kyiv-war-russia/), offering support in continuation with the [2022 UK-Poland-Ukraine Alliance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British%E2%80%93Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_trilateral_pact)

***Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?***

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024, any country enters a legal agreement with Ukraine to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine with the promise to back that guarantee with the deployment of military personnel.  Official statements by Ukraine and their cosignatory will be required for resolution.  A security guarantee from Russia to Ukraine will be excluded from resolving this question.

The security guarantee must protect the sovereignty of at least some portion of Ukrainian territory from invasion by either land, sea, or air, or to aid Ukraine with military deployments under other conditions of the treaty.  The security guarantee must last for at least 6 months or indefinitely.  Agreements to provide Ukraine with any other form of assistance, including funding or weapons, will not be sufficient to resolve the question.

This question asks specifically about security guarantees outside the frameworks of [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO), [EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy), or [UN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) membership.

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 04/05/2022.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Supplementary Comment(s)

Created On: 04/05/2022 3:29 PM (ET)
Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be "Independent."


Democratic

Republican

Independent

Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?

This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict.  To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.

The table below shows the number of fatalities according to [ACLED](https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard) and [forcibly displaced persons](https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=Vq2R1n) according to UNHCR.  All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.

| country | fatalities (2021) | forcibly displaced persons (2021) |
| -- | -- | -- |
| Bolivia	| 8 | 2,379 |
| Haiti	| 578 | 165,019 |
| Nicaragua | 30 | 175,060 |
| Guatemala | 656 | 187,355 |
| El Salvador	| 390 | 276,787 |
| Honduras | 596 | 468,771 |

Note that UNHCR also reports [internally displaced persons](https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=18UePq) -- this question tracks *forcibly displaced persons*.  A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found [here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QcK5LVjTHlFr7brQUKiDq0oGOWDxb1oY/view?usp=sharing)

This table is the number of fatalities according to [ACLED](https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard) reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.

| country | fatalities (2022) |
| -- | -- |
| Bolivia	| 7 |
| Haiti	| 426 |
| Nicaragua | 5 |
| Guatemala | 205 |
| El Salvador	| 195 |
| Honduras | 263 |

A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available [here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/17ikdArenLtA2NLb4Q1zGrliHfo1G1ejB/view?usp=sharing).

***Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022?***

Each country below will resolve as **Yes** if both of these conditions are true:

* The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021

* The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.

The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.

The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to [UNHCR](https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/)’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023. 

The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the [ACLED dashboard](https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard). Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used.  All types of events reported by ACLED are included.

[fine-print]
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes

* Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
* Asylum seekers
* Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
* Venezuelans displaced abroad 
[/fine-print]

Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia))

This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. This market will be  turned in-play  with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Democratic Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not.  Customers should be aware that:  <li>Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.</li> <li>The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.</li>  If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.  Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elizabeth Warren

Eric Garcetti

Gavin Newsom

Cory Booker

Michelle Obama

Michael Bloomberg

John Ossoff

Bernie Sanders

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Katie Porter

Hillary Clinton

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Ayanna Pressley

Jamaal Bowman

Nina Turner

Beto O Rourke

Andrew Cuomo

Bill Gates

Rashida Tlaib

Tammy Duckworth

Susan Rice

Eric Adams

Jared Polis

J.B. Pritzker

Dwayne Johnson

Tim Ryan

Phil Murphy

Raphael Warnock

Jamie Raskin

Who will be elected to be the Democratic Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?

[Jannik Sinner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner) is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's [Elo rankings](http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html)

As part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked "Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.

***Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?***

Resolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).

Resolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.

Resolution will be by credible media reports.

This question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution.

Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?

Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:

* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange

* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)

Potentially useful resources:

* [The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)

* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)

* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)

* [Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia

***If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if the following two criteria are met:

1.  There is a nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by January 1, 2030 

2. Average global temperature during the 3 years following the conflict is at least 3°C lower than the average global temperature during the 3 years prior to the conflict.

This question will resolve as **ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by January 1, 2030.

[fine-print]
This question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in temperature but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.

[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.

In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).
[/fine-print]

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:


>"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders."


> "In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack."


> "In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack."


The only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945.  However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)).  Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.

***If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?***

This question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).


If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.


A detonation will be considered "a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.


Resolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.


**Related questions**


* [If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)


* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)


* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)


* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)

[fine-print]
[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.
[/fine-print]

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

***If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?***

This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:

- Let `t` be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let `C` be the company that developed the AGI.
- Calculate the total return (including dividends) of `C`'s stock over the period from 12 months prior to `t` to one month prior to `t`, inclusive.[1]
- Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists.
- Calculate the ratio of `C`'s total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.

If the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.

[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, "one month prior" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.


The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.

The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.

The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.

The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.

Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?

The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.

Today, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.

Nationalization of corporations that are working on AGI might happen due to the government perceiving the risks and power imbalance associated with a private organization with AGI technology to be unacceptable. 

***Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?***

This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a nationalized organization.

If the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. 

**Sister questions**

- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)
- [Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/)
- [University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/)
- [Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/)

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.

He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)

However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election

***Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?***

Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).

Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.

Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.

Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?

[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, also known by his initials SBF,  is an American entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. He is the founder and CEO of [FTX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_(company)), a cryptocurrency exchange. He also manages assets through Alameda Research, a quantitative cryptocurrency trading firm he founded in October 2017.

Bankman-Fried is a supporter of effective altruism and pursues earning to give as an altruistic career. He is a member of Giving What We Can and plans to donate the great majority of his wealth to effective charities over the course of his life.

As of May 12th 2022, [Forbes estimates](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/?list=billionaires&sh=4ecc45124449) his net worth as $21bn, making him the 71st-wealthiest person in the world, according to their ranking.

As of May 12th 2022, [Bloomberg estimates](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/samuel-bankmanfried/) his net worth as $11bn, making him the 171st-wealthiest person in the world, according to their ranking.

***Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2030, Sam Bankman-Fried is ranked at least the 100th-wealthiest person in the world by *either* the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#453f84e23d78), or the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index.](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)

If Forbes or Bloomberg do not report any data for January 1, 2030, another credible source may be used, or the question may resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.

Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?

The market closes at 10:00 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for || Date ||.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

What will the economy look like in December?

Distributed denial-of-service attacks occur when a targeted server is deliberately overwhelmed by requests.  The largest attack occurred late in 2021 at a total of [3.47 Tbps](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/01/microsoft-fends-off-record-breaking-3-47-tbps-ddos-attack/), and was reported in late January 2022.

***Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if a DDoS attack greater than 3.5TPS occurs between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, according to credible public reports available by January 31, 2023.

We will utilize [this definition](https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ddos/what-is-a-ddos-attack/) of a DDoS attack for resolution:

"A distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack is a malicious attempt to disrupt the normal traffic of a targeted server, service or network by overwhelming the target or its surrounding infrastructure with a flood of Internet traffic." 

The DDoS attack will be measured in terabytes per second (Tbps, TPS).

Resolution will come from an announcement from the affected company(s) or from at least 2 reputable news/media sources.

Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?

China has long been [at odds with](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/china-crypto-bans-a-complete-history/) the growing cryptocurrency market. In September 2021, The People's Bank of China (PBOC) instituted a ban against all cryptocurrency transactions due to a capital flight of approximately $50B between 2019 and 2020 from the country. 

The [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/what-s-behind-china-s-cryptocurrency-ban/) writes:

> "In late September 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) banned all cryptocurrency transactions. The PBOC cited the role of cryptocurrencies in facilitating financial crime as well as posing a growing risk to China’s financial system owing to their highly speculative nature. However, one other possible reason behind the cryptocurrency ban is an attempt to combat capital flight from China.

> According to the Chainalysis Blockchain data platform, more than $50 billion worth of cryptocurrency left East Asian accounts to areas outside the region between 2019 and 2020. As China has an outsized presence in East Asian cryptocurrency exchanges, Chainalysis staff believe that much of this net outflow of cryptocurrency was actually capital flight from China. Although Chainalysis does not have a definitive figure for how much capital fled China between 2019 and 2020, they estimate that it could be as high as $50 billion."

***Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?***

This question will resolve positively if the People's Bank of China announces that they will allow financial institutions to trade and engage in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024-01-01.

Financial institutions must be able to engage in cryptocurrency transactions at the same level and with the same freedoms as before the ban. 

The allowance of individual entities to engage in cryptocurrency at the behest of the government will not trigger resolution. 

For the purpose of this question an announcement by the PBOC will be enough to trigger resolution, the end of the ban does not need to have come into full effect before 2024-01-01 for positive resolution.

Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?

_For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/)._


The total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.

***Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?***

This question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.


For the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).


Resolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. 


**Related questions**

* [Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)

* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)

* [What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)

[fine-print]
One example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 100 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield per weapon of 500kt.


If there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.


Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.


In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).
[/fine-print]

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.

Yet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an <a href=" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability">island of stability</a>. There are certain "magic numbers" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.

It is asked:

*** Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? ***

In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.

Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?

Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a [period of transition](https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/emissions-reduction) in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro.  Australia has [never built a nuclear power station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia) in the electric grid.

Fossil fuels account for 93% of primary energy consumption in 2020, according to the [Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resource](https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-consumption).  Of fossil fuel consumption, oil makes up 40%, coal 30%, and natural gas 30%. The share of coal in the electricity mix [has declined](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~AUS&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Coal&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total), from 80% in 2000 to 54% in 2020.

While Australia's nuclear industry is quite small and consiststs of a [single reactor facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-pool_Australian_lightwater_reactor) opened in 1958 at Lucas Heights in NSW, producing industrial and medical isotopes, a [recent military agreement](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/nuclear-submarine-base-shortlist-brisbane-newcastle-port-kembla/100887204) has increased the likelihood of Australia operating additional nuclear reactors - albeit in the form of nuclear powered submarines.

The Howard government commissioned the Switowski Report in 2006 which [concluded](https://www.smh.com.au/national/nuclear-power-in-australia-within-10-years-switkowski-20061127-gdowxg.html) that nuclear power could compete with coal if a carbon credit system was imposed on or by Australia. In response, the Labor party adopted an [anti-nuclear platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia), and won the 2007 election.

[A September 2021 poll](https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia) from Essential found 50% of Australian respondents in favor of nuclear energy, with 32% opposed, although a similar share (20%) were strongly in favor as those strongly opposed (17%).

***Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if Australia builds at least one fission-based nuclear power plant on or within 10 km of Australian land before January 1, 2042.  The plant must be built and begin producing electricity for the commercial power grid before January 1, 2042 to resolve the question positively.

For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear power reactor" refers to fission-based power generation which excludes other nuclear power generation methods such as fusion / magentic confinement technologies such as Tokamaks or any other non-fission device that might be developed.

Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?

The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:

> "The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues."


However, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):

>"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers." 


Given these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.

***Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?***

For the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.


We here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).


Resolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.


**See also**


* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)

* [Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)

* [Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/)

Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?

[Blake Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)) is a Republican politician and a candidate for the United States Senate in Arizona.  He has a close relationship with tech billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), and wrote the book Zero to One based on notes he took from Thiel's class at Stanford, where Masters got both his BA and JD.  Masters [resigned](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1504166071632162816) from his posts running Thiel Capital and the Thiel Foundation to run in Arizona.  Masters is staunchly opposed to critical race theory, and supports a stronger border and the reduction of illegal immigration.  He is also tough on crime, and has [appeared on Tucker Carlson's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyKjUiehzQA) to denounce the increase on crime rates, which he has blamed on Democratic Party politicians like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.  Masters is also a suspicious of large tech companies, much like Thiel, and views them as stifling innovation and as pushing a left-wing political ideology.  Masters has also famously stated ["you should be able to raise a family on one single income"](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1453754258218651648).  While not alleging fraud on Election Day in 2020, Masters [released](https://theweek.com/talking-points/1006992/blake-masters-disgraceful-video) a video critical of the coverage of Hunter Biden's laptop and of voter registration policies.

Masters has received [significant attention](https://jewishinsider.com/2022/03/blake-masters-wants-to-take-back-arizona/) and both [praise](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/11/the-blake-masters-vision/) and [criticism](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/07/15/meet-peter-thiels-military-industrial-candidate/).  In particular, some on the left have criticized Peter Thiel for his [opposition to democracy](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/06/peter-thiel.html) and his links with the neoreactionary thinker [Curtis Yarvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Yarvin).

***Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?***

This question will resolve positively if Blake Masters is the President of the United States before January 1, 2070, as reported by reliable media outlets.

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their November 02, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

Will the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's November meeting?

The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.

While COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)

There are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:

* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)

* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)

* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)

* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)

* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)

* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)

The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.

***Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 25 million people have died from an infectious pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2 and its descendants) from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2031, according to excess mortality figures compiled by what Metaculus judges to be the most credible of following sources:

* The World Health Organisation (or its successor)

* Credible media reports/models

* Academic studies/models

If there are several reports/models judged credible by Metaculus admins, the resolution will be determined by the median of the reported deaths.

Variants of pathogens currently causing human disease, such as variants of SARS-CoV-2, **do not count** — with no exceptions. However, novel pathogens that are the result of [antigenic shift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift) **do count.** Among pathogens that cause human disease, antigenic shift is currently [only](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vim.2017.0141) known to occur with influenza A and this process is described by the US CDC as an ["abrupt, major change in a flu A virus, resulting in new HA and/or new HA and NA proteins in flu viruses that infect humans"](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm). Contrast this with [antigenic drift](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8669911/), which is the mechanism that produces variants for pathogens like SARS-CoV-2.

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

This market will be  turned in-play  at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2022. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of Brazil on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of the Brazil, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Jair Bolsonaro

Sergio Moro

Eduardo Leite

Ciro Gomes

Fernando Haddad

Flávio Dino

Guilherme Boulos

João Doria

João Amoêdo

Marina Silva

Luciano Huck

Luiz Felipe d'Avila

Pablo Marçal

Vera Lúcia Salgado

Simone Tebet

Soraya Thronicke

Who will be elected to be the next President of Brazil as a result of the 2022 Brazilian General Election?

The Underlying is the one decimal value reported by the BLS. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

Will inflation rise more than 0.7% in November?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the OWiD ([OWiD](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-from-natural-disasters), see "Storms"). For 2020, there were 1,723 deaths caused by storms.


Fewer than 1,000

Between 1,000 and 4,000, inclusive

More than 4,000 but fewer than 20,000

Between 20,000 and 80,000, inclusive

More than 80,000

How many deaths will be caused by storms in the world in 2023, according to Our World in Data (OWiD)?

On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team.  Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people.  Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.

***Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?***

This question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025.  ["Flagging"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet.  Otherwise, it resolves negative.

Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?

Johnny Depp is a multiple award-winning actor, [who resigned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Depp#2012%E2%80%932020:_Career_setbacks) from his most recent role in 2018 after public allegations of domestic abuse. He has not received a role in any film produced by major studio since then, which he attributes to this allegation. He has initiated a [defamation lawsuit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depp_v._Heard) against his former wife Amber Heard, denying the allegations of abuse, [describing himself](https://deadline.com/2021/09/johnny-depp-cancel-culture-so-far-out-of-hand-no-one-is-safe-asks-people-to-stand-up-against-injustice-1234842145/) as a victim of cancel culture.

Public opinion has generally supported Depp, with Buzzfeed [reporting](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ikrd/milani-cosmetics-tiktok-about-johnny-depp-and-amber-heard) that videos tagged with #JusticeForJohnnyDepp have received 200 times more views than those tagged #JusticeForAmberHeard.

***Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?***

For the purpose of this question, "major film studio" is defined as one of the five major studio conglomerates listed on [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_film_studios#Present), and film contract is defined as: "a paid contract to physically or voice act in a film which is described as "feature-length", planned to be released in movie theaters, or is at least 90 minutes long; or, a Metaculus moderator believes it likely that one of these criteria will be met, if the evidence is ambiguous. The contract must require Johnny Depp to have new recordings (as opposed to repurchasing existing work)."

This question will resolve positive if it is publicly reported that Depp has signed a contract with one of the studios by January 1, 2024.

Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?

This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. 

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

If the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50-50.

Determination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.

Democrat

2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Ohio?

The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. 

The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by "The Big One," with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. 

23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.

***Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?***

*This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.*

A major United States earthquake by 2023?

Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !

For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .

Similar questions:

- [When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/)
- [When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

[On November 26, 2020](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/), Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat.  

[Techspoon](https://thespoon.tech/europe-the-u-s-israel-which-country-might-be-next-to-approve-cultured-meat/) wrote in May 2021:

>U.S.-based companies are still leading the cultured meat industry, too, and have attracted huge amounts of investment in the recent past, including Memphis Meats’ $161 million round in 2020, BlueNalu’s $60 million fundraise, and, of course, Eat Just’s recent $200 million fundraise. The latter — still the only cultured meat company in the world cleared to sell a product — hasn’t explicitly said it will next launch commercially in the U.S. In a recent conversation, Eat Just founder and CEO Josh Tetrick only hinted, saying “I think it’s more likely than not that we’ll see clearance sometime in the next two years. I hope it’s this year — we’re going to be ready if it is. But it’s hard to tell.”

[In March 2021](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2021/05/04/When-will-lab-grown-meat-reach-the-European-market), ProVeg International's New Food Conference surveyed attendees, 58% of whom said cultured meat would be approved in the European Union "within three to five years".

[In December 2020](https://www.prnewswire.com/il/news-releases/israels-prime-minister-tastes-aleph-farms-cultivated-steak-301187468.html), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated:

>I have directed the State Secretary Tzahi Braverman to appoint a body to serve these industries in order to connect and oversee all the stakeholders operating in this field. Israel will become a powerhouse for alternative meat and alternative protein.

***Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023?***

The sub-questions below will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before April 1, 2023,  the respective country approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products).  This may resolve as **Yes** even if such approval is later retracted.

For a product to be deemed a "cultivated meat product", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).

For a resolution source, Metaculus will consider official statements by government regulatory authorities, statements by cultivated meat companies, and credible media reports.

Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union))

A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.


Again, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:

```
collatz(n) = 
  if (n is 1) return 1
  else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)
  else return collatz(3n + 1)
```

where n is a positive integer.

The Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).

For any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:

1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to  1, and halts.

2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.

3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.

Per [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, "this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics."

*This question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time.* 

If the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.

-----

<small>
Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:

- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/)
- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/)
- [When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?
](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)
- [When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)

Is the Collatz Conjecture true?

The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup) is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years.  The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022.

***Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?***

This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to [FIFA](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022).  The team winning the cup will resolve as **Yes**, all other teams will resolve as **No**.

[fine-print]
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
[/fine-print]

Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar))

[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).

Bankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).

This question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.

***Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?***

This resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.

Donations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.

[fine-print]If Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted. 

If he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.

If some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively.
[/fine-print]

Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?

Please note that the value is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the change from December 2021 to December 2022 divided by the December 2021 index value, as reported by the BLS.

The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the day the earliest data is expected to be released. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or fourteen days thereafter.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

Will inflation in 2022 be between 7.0% and 7.9%?

In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes

> A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.

This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.

If a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.

If no machine passes that test by 2100-01-01, then this question resolves ambiguously.

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

This market shall resolve to Yes if President Biden issues a veto of legislation by the End Date listed below.
For purposes of this market, a qualifying veto shall include a "pocket veto."
This market will be resolved based on the summary of vetoes on the senate.gov website, currently available upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)


Will Joe Biden issue a veto before 2023?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):

> P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.

According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.

In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy,  according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). 

***Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if renewable energy contributes between 25.00% and 48.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.

Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.

Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?

*Related Questions on Metaculus:*

* [Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10046/ukraine--russia-presidential-peace-talks/)

* [If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/)

----

On Feb 28, 2022 [Ukrainian and Russian officials started cease-fire talks on the Belarusian border](https://thehill.com/policy/international/596081-ceasefire-talks-begin-between-ukraine-russian-officials).

***Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?***

This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as **No** if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2023.

The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory.  In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.

*(See the edit history in the fine print below)*

[fine-print]
_Edit March 2, 2022: The resolution criterion regarding negative resolution "if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days" has been edited to read: "if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days."_

*Edit July 28, 2022 by casens: I added a clarification that the ceasefire must apply to all military operations, and that limited ceasefires are not sufficient.*
[/fine-print]

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?

The [Liberal Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Canada), led by Justin Trudeau since 2013, won a majority government in the 2015 federal election, ending nearly a decade of [Conservative Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Canada) rule.  In both the federal elections of [2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election) and [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberals were re-elected with a minority government. In early 2022, the Liberals [struck a deal](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberals-ndp-agree-to-confidence-deal-seeing-trudeau-government-maintain-power-until-2025-1.5829116) with the opposition New Democratic Party to keep the minority government in power until 2025.

The 45th federal election will be held on October 20, 2025 (as specified in the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act)), or earlier if Parliament is dissolved by the [Governor general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_General_of_Canada).

***Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election?***

The party below will resolve as **Yes** if [Elections Canada](https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx) states that they have won the most seats (i.e., electoral districts) in the 45th Canadian federal election.  All other options will resolve as **No**.

This question is not restricted to the options currently listed below; others may be added in the future.

If two or more parties are tied, this question will resolve as **Yes** for the party which forms a governing coalition following the election.

Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative))

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their December 14, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

Will the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's December meeting?

Gas prices are expected to play a major role in 2022 midterm election campaigns ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gax-tax-holiday-biden-three-months-congress/), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/31/white-house-biden-gas-prices-00036206), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/04/politics/gas-prices-democrats-election-2022/index.html)). The question will be suspended on 7 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 8 November 2022 ([AAA](https://gasprices.aaa.com/), see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Less than $3.00

Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive

More than $3.50 but less than $4.00

Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive

More than $4.50 but less than $5.00

Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive

More than $5.50 but less than $6.00

Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive

More than $6.50

What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?

What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness.  He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”.  Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant.  He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is.  

I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). 
You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains.  This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s.  Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen.  Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing.  It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. 

Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf).  One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid).  That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid).  According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so.  

Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch.  The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.

By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?

In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.

For the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited
enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. 

One of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.

Additionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).

To continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.

The sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.

Progress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.

**Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?**

------

**Resolution**

The question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: 

> geometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).

Performance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).

As the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:

- Jul year 0 to Jul year 1
- Nov year 0 to Nov year 1
- Jul year 1 to Jul year 2
- Nov year 1 to Nov year 2
- Jul year 2 to Jul year 3
- Nov year 2 to Nov year 3

For example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:

- Jul 2025 to Jul 2026
- Nov 2025 to Nov 2026
- Jul 2026 to Jul 2027
- Nov 2026 to Nov 2027
- Jul 2027 to Jul 2028
- Nov 2027 to Nov 2028

The [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.

**Data**

Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 ([Climate.gov](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature), [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/changes-in-climate/)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FAO ([FAO](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QCL)). In the "COUNTRIES" box, select "REGIONS" and select "World + (Total)." For "ELEMENTS," select only "Yield." In the "ITEMS" box, select "ITEMS AGGREGATED" and select "Cereals, Total + (Total)," which is under "Crops Primary &gt; (List)." For "YEARS," select whatever years for which you want to see data. Finally, click either "Show Data" or "Download Data" at the bottom and see the "Value" column. The values returned are hectograms per hectare, which is one-tenth of a tonne per hectare. In 2020, the yield of cereals per hectare was 4.07 tonnes.


Less than 2.00 tonnes

Between 2.00 tonnes and 5.00 tonnes, inclusive

More than 5.00 tonnes but less than 8.00 tonnes

Between 8.00 tonnes and 11.00 tonnes, inclusive

More than 11.00 tonnes

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the yield of cereals per hectare in the world in 2100, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)?

*Related Questons on Metaculus:*

* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)
* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)

----

The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom).  Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).

The House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference.  The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged).  Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).

In June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the ["beergate" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)).  The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.

***Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?***

The question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Labour Party leadership election following the election on April 4, 2020.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.

This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; more options may be added in the future.

[fine-print]
If the Labour party ceases to exist, or if the next Labour party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
[/fine-print]