After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, China is facing new disruptions to its economy ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/17/economy/china-gdp-q3-intl-hnk/index.html), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-economy-third-quarter-gdp-data-grows-4point9percent-missing-expectations.html)). The outcome will be determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as reported by Trading Economics ([Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined when the relevant data for 2Q 2022 are first released, scheduled for July 2022.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Less than 4.0%

Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive

More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%

Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive

More than 7.0%

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2022?

One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. 
The sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .
Is the sunflower conjecture true?
This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. It will resolve negatively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.
If there is no such proof by 2300-01-01, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2300-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.
[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-08 : changed the resolution date from 2121 to 2300.


Is the sunflower conjecture true?

On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [US News &amp; World Report](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-29/apple-set-to-hand-crown-of-worlds-most-valuable-company-to-microsoft)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET ([Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Yes, the most valuable in the world

No, but the most valuable in the United States

At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?

[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).
Recently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.
Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?
This question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.
Product release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.
The product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. 
Beta or development hardware does not resolve.
Resolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.


Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?

Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&amp;metadataPrefix=html&amp;identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.
Speaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis &amp; design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.
Basically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. 
Current Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). 
There were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.
See also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the US.
Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?
This question resolves positively if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-01. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.


Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?

The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&amp;feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) 
---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) 
---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) 
---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) 
---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) 
---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) 
---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) 
---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) 
---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) 
---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&amp;meta=) 
---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) 
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.
The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).


Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.
As of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. 
Throughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29) parties. 
The Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. 
The Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).
Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?
For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.
If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. 


Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

If there is a release on the websites of the White House or Department of Education, issued between April 11, 2022 and || Date ||, extending federal student loan forbearance past || Date ||, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: FORB-22AUG31 (undefined)

Will student loan forbearance be extended?

This market will be turned  IN PLAY  with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of polling on election day. Thereafter unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time by Betfair and the market will not be actively managed. Coalition refers to the Liberal Party and National Party. This is a <a href="http://cross-matching.betfair.com.au/" target="_blank">cross-matching</a> market. Customers should be aware that:  <li>Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed and that all in-play matches are not necessarily televised.</li> <li>The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.</li>    BET IN-PLAY  Australian customers call Telbet to bet in-play on this market – call  132BET (132238)

Coalition

Labor

Any Other Party or Independent

Which of these parties or independents will win this seat in the next Federal Election?

This is a market on whether Kanye West's verified Twitter account (@kanyewest) will tweet again between February 18, 2022, and July 1, 2022, (11:59:59 PM ET). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West's verified Twitter account tweets at least once between February 18, 2022, and July 1, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Kanye West's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/kanyewest, however credible media sources will also suffice.

 If the URL of Kanye West’s verified Twitter account changes before the resolution of this question, whichever URL the Twitter account moves to will be the valid resolution source for this market. The resolution of this market will be unaffected by the aforementioned tweet later being deleted. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a tweet is published on the relevant account regardless of the individual publishing the tweet on the account. 

Will @kanyewest tweet again by July 1, 2022?

From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),
Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.
He also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”
Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?
This question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2, 2023 (Pacific Time),
--- 
Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup
--- 
Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023
"Credible media" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS.


Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?

There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.


Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?

In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,
Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.
This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.


Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?

Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?
This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.


Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?

The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.
Egypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.
There have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:
--- 
[WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)
--- 
[The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)
Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?
A clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:
---A bombing attack on the dam 
---Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam 
Success of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.


Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?

In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.
As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.
This question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.
If the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.


Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?

. The resolution source is: FED-22DEC (undefined)

Will the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's December meeting? 

Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).
The "Boom Star" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):
will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.
Molner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.
Will this bold prediction come to pass? 
Result is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an "red nova" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)
(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.


Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?

Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)
an American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.
A host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). 
This question asks:
Will any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?
The list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:
---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) 
---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) 
---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) 
---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) 
---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) 
---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) 
---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) 
---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) 
For reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.


Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?

Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/30/us-auto-sales-forecast-to-plummet-in-third-quarter-as-chip-shortage-plagues-industry.html), [Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a37823495/auto-dealers-low-inventory-profits/)). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA)). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)

Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive

More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)

Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive

More than 700.0 (thousands)

What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?

In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. 
For this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.
Let’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.
Will Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?
Resolution conditions: 
---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number 
---"By 2030" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 
---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a &gt;100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. 


Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?

As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.
However, we cannot rest easy.
As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:
Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. 
A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.
How long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?
Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? 
For these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.


Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.


Democratic

Republican

Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election?

This is a market about whether there will be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022, posited by Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1476930984931168276?s=21.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if on November 8, 2022, all ordinary domestic airplane travellers are required by law to wear a mask that completely covers the mouth and nose while using airplane transportation. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

For this market to resolve to “Yes”, the mandate must be issued by a federal agency, such as the CDC or TSA - not solely by airplane companies.

Please note, if there is a mask mandate that is applicable to all ordinary passengers but vaccinated people, it will NOT be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes.”

Note also that the mask mandates in question do not have to be due to COVID-19. 

[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.


Libertarian

Green

Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.


Kathy Hochul

Tom Suozzi

Andrew Cuomo

Bill de Blasio

A. Ocasio-Cortez

Alessandra Biaggi

Andrew Yang

Jumaane Williams

Thomas DiNapoli

Letitia James

Hillary Clinton

Kirsten Gillibrand

Steve Bellone

Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?

On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. Its co-founder, Josh Tetrick, hopes that "Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat." Another San Francisco-based company, Wildtype, expects commercial sales of its cultured salmon in 2022. Its officials say they will be ready to apply for U.S. regulatory approval to sell its salmon as soon as the USDA and FDA publish the protocols.
Cultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. 
However, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product. Thus we ask:
By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?
This question resolves positively if the US approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.
For a product to be deemed a "cultivated meat product", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).
Resolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.


By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?

[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or "Webb") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. 
One of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).
Development began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.
[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)
If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?
The question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.
Important: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.
The question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.
The question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.


If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.


Which party will win the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election?

"Person of the Year" (called Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999) is an annual issue of the United States news magazine and website "TIME" that features and profiles a person, group, idea, or object that "for better or for worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year".

This is a market on who will be named as Person of the Year by TIME magazine for the year 2022. TIME's Person of the Year 2022 is picked by the newspaper's editors and is expected to be announced within the first two weeks of December 2022.

If the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Please note, that this market will resolve to "Yes" only if exclusively Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as the TIME's Person of the Year. If, for example, "Defenders of Kyiv" or "People of Ukraine" or any other group is named as 2022 TIME's Person of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".

This market can resolve after the 2022 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason, the 2022 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2023 (11 PM ET), this market will resolve to "No".

----------------------------

Here is a list of the last 10 TIME Persons of the Year:

2021 - Elon Musk
2020 - Joe Biden, Kamala Harris
2019 - Greta Thunberg
2018 - The Guardians and the War on Truth
2017 - The Silence Breakers
2016 - Donald Trump
2015 - Angela Merkel
2014 - The Ebola Fighters
2013 - Pope Francis
2012 - President of the United States
2011 - The Protester

Read more about Person of the Year: https://time.com/poy

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year?

In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now).
Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?
This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Pakistani government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.


Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Independent

Any Other Party

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dr. Anthony Fauci holds the office of Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases without interruption until the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)


Will Anthony Fauci remain NIAID director through the end of the year?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who is first endorsed by Donald Trump in the 2022 Missouri Republican primary election for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt will consider any statement to be an endorsement if former President Trump either states that he is endorsing the candidate or unambiguously asks voters to vote for the candidate.
In the event that an endorsement is ambiguous, PredictIt shall rely on statements issued on former President Trump's website https://www.donaldjtrump.com, in order to resolve this market.
Should Mr. Trump not endorse a candidate before the day of the primary, all contacts in this market shall close as No.
In the event that Mr. Trump endorses two or more candidates simultaneously, or it is not possible to determine the chronological order of multiple endorsements, this market will be resolved in favor of the candidate, among those endorsed, ranked first in last name alphabetical order.
No subsequent endorsement or revocation of a qualifying endorsement by former President Trump or any affiliate group shall be relevant for the purposes of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.


Eric Schmitt

Eric Greitens

Vicky Hartzler

Billy Long

Mark McCloskey

Whom will Trump endorse in the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate primary?

If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Texas is above || Count || for a single day between Issuance (April 11, 2022) and May 20, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. 

Note that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for May 20, 2022, or 10:00 AM on May 27, 2022.. The resolution source is: CASE7DTX-22MAY20 (undefined)

Will the average new COVID-19 cases in Texas be greater than 5,000 by May 20, 2022?

The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),
LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”
This prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?
Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a "transformer" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer "Yes". 
Either of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:
1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase 
language model "state of the art"
Take the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.
OR
2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. 
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.


Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?

PLEASE NOTE: THE EXPIRATION TIME IS 10:00 AM

If President Biden's approval rating is greater than 45% at 10:00 AM on November 8, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE (v1) in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)

Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than 45% on Election Day 2022? 

This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day of the referendum. This market will be settled as “Not before 2025” at 00:00 on 1st January 2025 if no referendum takes place before this time.  Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.

2022

2023

2024

Not before 2025

When will a legally authorised referendum next take place on Scottish independence?

Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 04/05/2022.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Supplementary Comment(s)

Created On: 04/05/2022 3:29 PM (ET)
Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be "Independent."


Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?

A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/) asked "at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government." The community prediction jumped to 99% in late February shortly after the invasion, when there was a widespread belief that Russia would attack Kyiv and did not drop from 99% until the second half of March. The community mean began dropping around the beginning of April, as Russia [withdrew](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-assesses-russia-completes-withdrawal-around-kyiv-us-defense-official-2022-04-06/) from Kyiv. [Several](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-88639) [commenters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91270) have discussed whether or not there were enough Russian incursions into Kyiv at the start of the invasion to resolve the question as yes. Commenters have [discussed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91467) [whether](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91325) an ambiguous resolution is appropriate, if the size of the early incursions cannot be ascertained. They have [also](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91466) [suggested](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91414) that forthcoming reports might allow for an unambiguous resolution of the question, whether positive or negative.
Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?
If [the Russian troops question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/) resolves ambiguously before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve positively. If the Russian troops question resolves positively or negatively before 2030-01-01, or if the Russian troops question is not resolved at all before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.


Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?

In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. 
Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?
This question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before January 1, 2036. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By "related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.


Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate above 21.0% becomes law before December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

Please note, other provisions that may affect the amount of corporate tax paid by a given corporation but are not the corporate income tax rate are not considered in this market. 

Note also, the increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of corporate income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not considered in this market.

The resolution of this market is (https://www.congress.gov) and other official sources.

Will the highest corporate tax rate be raised above 21% in 2022?

On the evening that started this year's Ramadan, the UN announced a surprise breakthrough on the ceasefire in Yemen, which previously appeared unlikely. They now say both sides [have agreed to a full two-month ceasefire](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-01/yemen-govt-to-help-with-release-of-prisoners-open-sanaa-airport-in-truce-moves), beginning the first full day of Ramadan.
This will be the first nationwide truce in Yemen in years, a welcome respite for its war-weary population.
The death toll of the war in Yemen is estimated to have been 377,000 at the end of 2021, according to a [report](https://www.ye.undp.org/content/yemen/en/home/library/assessing-the-impact-of-war-in-yemen--pathways-for-recovery.html) from the UN's Development Programme. The majority of the deaths are among children under the age of five, the report says, with one child dying every nine minutes according to the UNDP.
The war, which is in its seventh year, has seen some 80 percent of the population, or 24 million people, relying on aid and assistance, including 14.3 million who are in acute need. With Yemen importing [more than 35%](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-food-mideast-idAFL8N2V31BU) of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the disruption to wheat supplies will cause [soaring increases](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-yemen-braces-wheat-shortage) in the price of food. 
UN officials say the truce could be easily extended. The UN started with a ceasefire meant for just the month of Ramadan, but the Houthis were resisting when it didn't include any easing of the naval blockade.
Exact terms aren't public yet, but [the UN press release](https://osesgy.unmissions.org/press-statement-un-special-envoy-yemen-hans-grundberg-two-month-truce) states that the blockade will indeed be eased some. Fuel shipments to Hudaydah ports will be permitted, and certain flights in and out of Sana'a will also be allowed.
The two sides are also [discussing a prisoner swap](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-27/houthis-say-prisoner-swap-deal-includes-16-saudis-brother-of-yemen-president) under which hundreds from both sides would be freed.
Ceasefires don't always hold as hoped, but if this one does, it could be the start of a proper peace process.
Credit: this background is adapted from [this article here](https://news.antiwar.com/2022/04/01/un-says-two-month-yemen-ceasefire-agree-upon-will-ease-blockade/) and [this article here](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-war-death-toll-reach-un-report).
Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?
This question will resolve positively if the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coaltion has stood for two months, beginning on midnight of April 2, 2022 (GMT+3) and ending on midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3). The ceasefire will be deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This question will resolve negatively if the ceasefire breaks down before midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3).


Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?

Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).
This sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.
Joe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.
If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?
Resolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.


If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House ([270 to Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).


The Democratic Party candidate

The Republican Party candidate

Someone else

Who will win the election for Virginia's 7th Congressional District in 2022?

The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.
The United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.
Thus we ask: 
Will we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?
This question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute
---three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or 
---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). 
For the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:
---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources 
and either of the following:
---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or 
---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. 
This question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.


If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?

The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.
Also potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.
To measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.
On the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:
8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy
6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy
4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime
0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime
More information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).
The 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.
It is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?
Should the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.
