Metaforecast

Will Vladimir Putin Be President Through the End of 2023?

92%

Very likely

This market shall resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin holds the office of President of Russia without interruption through December 31st, 2023. Resolution Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled. This means...

★★★★☆

Insight

Volume: $13k

Which candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

29%

JD Vance

9%

Gavin Newsom

7%

Josh Shapiro

4%

Pete Buttigieg

4%

Gretchen Whitmer

★★★★☆

Betfair

Volume: £114k

Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?

91%

The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.

4%

The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.

4%

The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.

< 1%

The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

Trump and Biden both win nomination?

78%

Likely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Biden wins the Democratic nomination for president of the United States and Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination for president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise,...

★★★★☆

PolyMarket

Liquidity: $7.2k

Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt?

95%

Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.

4%

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.

2%

Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

Will Biden drop out of presidential race?

26%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race.

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing...

★★★★☆

PolyMarket

Liquidity: $6.7k

Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

84%

Likely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources,...

★★★★☆

PolyMarket

Liquidity: $155k

Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

12%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nimrata Nikki Haley wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP...

★★★★☆

PolyMarket

Liquidity: $3.3k

Does Putin Have Cancer?

86%

No, Putin does not have cancer, and has not had cancer in the last 10 years.

13%

Yes, Putin either has, or had within the last 10 years, any type of cancer (excluding thyroid).

< 1%

Yes, Putin either has, or had in the last 10 years, thyroid cancer.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

Who Will Win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination?

61%

Donald Trump

35%

Ron DeSantis

3%

Glenn Youngkin

3%

Vivek Ramaswamy

3%

Tom Cotton

★★★★☆

Insight

Volume: $21k

Who Will Win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

73%

Joe Biden

14%

Pete Buttigieg

8%

Gavin Newsom

6%

Kamala Harris

4%

Hillary Clinton

★★★★☆

Insight

Volume: $10k

Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?

82%

Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.

10%

No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.

9%

Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016?

42%

The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.

40%

The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.

13%

The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.

5%

Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.

< 1%

The US Air Force carried out the attack.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?

96%

Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.

4%

The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.

On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that...

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

SBF sentenced to 50+ years?

30%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to 50 or more years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of Oct 3, 2023) by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will...

★★★★☆

PolyMarket

Liquidity: $5.0k

Will a Quad country or the People's Republic of China publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 1 January 2025?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Quad</a> countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Tensions <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508..

★★★★☆

Good Judgment

Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?

> 99%

The MMR vaccine does not cause autism.

< 1%

The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up.

< 1%

The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

From Fox News,

A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 471

Will Kamala Harris be the 47th US president?

6%

Very unlikely

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

★★★☆☆

PredictIt

Shares vol.: 8918k

If Joe Biden is re-elected as US President in 2024, will he still be US President as of December 31, 2025?

75%

Likely

In the wake of the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, questions have widely been raised about the state of President Biden's health and cognitive faculty. President Biden is 81, and was the oldest President in history at inauguration.

The Hill:...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 25

Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?

> 99%

Virtually certain

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 447