92%
Very likely

This market shall resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin holds the office of President of Russia without interruption through December 31st, 2023. Resolution Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled. This means...

★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $13k
54%
Donald Trump
32%
Kamala Harris
< 1%
Michelle Obama
< 1%
Robert F.Kennedy Jr
< 1%
JD Vance
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £38377k
91%
The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.
4%
The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.
4%
The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.
< 1%
The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
61%
Republican Party
39%
Democratic Party
< 1%
Any Other
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £714k
64%
Kamala Harris
29%
Donald Trump
1%
Michelle Obama
< 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
< 1%
Hillary Clinton
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £774k
37%
Unlikely

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled upon popular vote...

★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £38k
69%
Democratic Party
30%
Republican Party
< 1%
Any Other
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £378k
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The last federal <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-signs-17t-government-spending-bill-ensuring-funding/story?id=95934378" target="_blank">shutdown</a> <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41759"...

★★★★☆
Good Judgment
62%
Male
38%
Female

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the...

★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £118k
42%
Mark Kelly
21%
Josh Shapiro
12%
Roy Cooper
7%
Andy Beshear
6%
Pete Buttigieg
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £363k
78%
Likely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Biden wins the Democratic nomination for president of the United States and Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination for president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise,...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $7.2k
95%
Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.
4%
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.
2%
Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
26%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race.

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $6.7k
12%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nimrata Nikki Haley wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $3.3k
84%
Likely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources,...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $155k
86%
No, Putin does not have cancer, and has not had cancer in the last 10 years.
13%
Yes, Putin either has, or had within the last 10 years, any type of cancer (excluding thyroid).
< 1%
Yes, Putin either has, or had in the last 10 years, thyroid cancer.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
61%
Donald Trump
35%
Ron DeSantis
3%
Glenn Youngkin
3%
Vivek Ramaswamy
3%
Tom Cotton
★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $21k
73%
Joe Biden
14%
Pete Buttigieg
8%
Gavin Newsom
6%
Kamala Harris
4%
Hillary Clinton
★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $10k
82%
Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.
10%
No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.
9%
Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
42%
The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.
40%
The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.
13%
The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.
5%
Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.
< 1%
The US Air Force carried out the attack.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
96%
Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.
4%
The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.

On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that...

★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus