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Will the 47th President be impeached?
52%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M504
Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 54
Volume: M27k
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 1, 2026?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This market will resolve YES if on January 1 2026 Donald Trump is the President of the USA.

[image]

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 51
Volume: M69k
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic Party Candidate for President in 2028?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves 100% of Richie Torres is nominated as the Democratic Party candidate for the 2028 US presidential election

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M12k
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves to Yes if Gretchen Whitmer is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028

Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2028

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M7.8k
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028

Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2028

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 44
Volume: M12k
Will Stephen A. Smith be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2028?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M11k
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?
72%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.

If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 171
Volume: M27k
US administration bans mRNA vaccines?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the U.S. federal government enacts a nationwide ban on the administration of mRNA vaccines. The ban must be officially announced through an executive order, federal...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M275
Nippon Steel acquires US Steel?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

The deal may face opposition that causes it to fail:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/investing/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal/index.html

Will the deal go through to completion?

Resolves according to reputable news reports or official government sources...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 86
Volume: M24k
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office. Donald Trump served as the 45th President from 2017-2021 and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election. Trump has previously made comments...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M4.5k
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 49
Volume: M6.8k
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025) is reported as positive by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The official advance...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.2k
US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolution: One or more US states succeeds from the union and war is declared between the two groups.

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M1.1k
Will the president during the 2024-2028 term be impeached by at least one body of congress during his term?
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M1.4k
Will the US experience martial law before 2026?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This question will also resolve yes if there is a coup d’état.

Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Martial law refers to federal martial law.

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 44
Volume: M7.3k
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 952
Volume: M881k
The chances of US civil war this year?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a civil war occurs in the United States. For the purposes of this market, a civil war is defined as a large-scale armed conflict between organized groups within the...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M476
War declaration between Iran and Israel(or US)?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

The market will be considered resolved as "YES" if either the US or Israel formally declares war against Iran, or if Iran formally declares war against Israel or US. Only official statements issued by the respective governments will qualify....

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M590
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 212
Volume: M328k
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M212

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