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Will Trump still be president after 2027?
78%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

If Trump is president at the beginning of 2028, resolves YES.

If Trump stops being president for any reason before then, resolves NO.

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M846
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic Party Candidate for President in 2028?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Resolves 100% of Richie Torres is nominated as the Democratic Party candidate for the 2028 US presidential election

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M12k
US-China Trade Deal Before June?
91%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Resolution Criteria: US-China Trade Deal Before June?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and the People’s Republic of China jointly announce a finalized agreement related to trade and/or tariffs between April 8, 2025, and May 31,...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 74
Volume: M27k
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
41%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-13

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 883
Volume: M719k
US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 52
Volume: M69k
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office. Donald Trump served as the 45th President from 2017-2021 and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election. Trump has previously made comments...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M3.2k
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
46%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 159
Volume: M80k
Will the US debt-to-GDP ratio rise between 2023 and 2030
79%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

According to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M241
Will total US military expenditure top its all-time high by 2024?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

https://ourworldindata.org/military-spending

2010 was the year with the highest total US military spending so far. This market resolves to yes if Our World in Data (or a suitable replacement if it stops being a reliable source) shows the military...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M5.6k
Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31340)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2025, US residents can legally participate in at...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M4.4k
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
40%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 239
Volume: M121k
[Short fuse] Will Trump announce that the US will recognize Palestine as a state by the end of this week?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Any public announcement in a speech or on social media will count.

Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on announcement content:

An announcement stating "The US will recognize Palestine" resolves YES. The signing...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 71
Volume: M31k
Trump impose large tariffs in first year?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%....

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 1.6k
Volume: M1664k
Will Trump take credit for the election of Leo XIV as the first American Pope?
96%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Before market close 5/15/2025. Jokes count. Any implication of causality between Trump being president and him being elected counts, e.g. "I told you I'd make America Great!" in context of the papal election counts, mere expressions of happiness, e.g..

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 101
Volume: M11k
Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Luigi Mangione is charged in Federal Court on charges of Murder, Stalking, and Use of a Silencer. Will President Trump grant him a Presidential Pardon (either pre-emptive, partial, or full) before the end of his (theoretical) 4-year presidential term...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 43
Volume: M61k
Will Pope Leo XIV openly criticize Trump in 2025?
74%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.

Market conditions:

Timeframe

The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 164
Volume: M14k
Will another Banjo Kazooie game be released or announced before June 1st 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

It has been 15 years since the last Banjo Kazooie game (Nuts & Bolts). Phil Spencer said recently in an interview: “You’ve seen from our history that we haven’t touched every franchise that people would love us to touch — Banjo fans, I hear you......

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 34
Volume: M8.5k
Tulsi Gabbard charged with perjury by end of 2026?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Following the news re: the Houthi PC Small Group chat on Signal, Tulsi Gabbard has been accused by some of committing perjury during her testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee.

This market will resolve "YES" if, before December 31st 2026 at...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M734
Will Donald Trump tweet an image of himself as Jesus Christ?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Donald Trump recently posted an AI-generated image of himself as the Pope. Will he make a similar post, depicting himself as Jesus, before the end of his second term?

NB The post can be on truth social, twitter, facebook, etc., and may be posted...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 124
Volume: M6.1k
Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?
78%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Original post: "major" protests defined as over 1 million people in one city OR over 10 million people in various cities/locations within the U.S., in the same day. Needs to be at least one reliable estimate reaching that threshold to validate (if...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 45
Volume: M6.4k