If Trump is president at the beginning of 2028, resolves YES.
If Trump stops being president for any reason before then, resolves NO.
Resolves 100% of Richie Torres is nominated as the Democratic Party candidate for the 2028 US presidential election
Resolution Criteria: US-China Trade Deal Before June?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and the People’s Republic of China jointly announce a finalized agreement related to trade and/or tariffs between April 8, 2025, and May 31,...
A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.
Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....
The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese...
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office. Donald Trump served as the 45th President from 2017-2021 and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election. Trump has previously made comments...
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.
According to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
https://ourworldindata.org/military-spending
2010 was the year with the highest total US military spending so far. This market resolves to yes if Our World in Data (or a suitable replacement if it stops being a reliable source) shows the military...
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31340)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2025, US residents can legally participate in at...
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.
Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..
Any public announcement in a speech or on social media will count.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on announcement content:
An announcement stating "The US will recognize Palestine" resolves YES. The signing...
Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%....
Before market close 5/15/2025. Jokes count. Any implication of causality between Trump being president and him being elected counts, e.g. "I told you I'd make America Great!" in context of the papal election counts, mere expressions of happiness, e.g..
Luigi Mangione is charged in Federal Court on charges of Murder, Stalking, and Use of a Silencer. Will President Trump grant him a Presidential Pardon (either pre-emptive, partial, or full) before the end of his (theoretical) 4-year presidential term...
This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.
Market conditions:
Timeframe
The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31...
It has been 15 years since the last Banjo Kazooie game (Nuts & Bolts). Phil Spencer said recently in an interview: “You’ve seen from our history that we haven’t touched every franchise that people would love us to touch — Banjo fans, I hear you......
Following the news re: the Houthi PC Small Group chat on Signal, Tulsi Gabbard has been accused by some of committing perjury during her testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee.
This market will resolve "YES" if, before December 31st 2026 at...
Donald Trump recently posted an AI-generated image of himself as the Pope. Will he make a similar post, depicting himself as Jesus, before the end of his second term?
NB The post can be on truth social, twitter, facebook, etc., and may be posted...
Original post: "major" protests defined as over 1 million people in one city OR over 10 million people in various cities/locations within the U.S., in the same day. Needs to be at least one reliable estimate reaching that threshold to validate (if...