This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the...

The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the EU parliament liaison office in Washington phrases it:

Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to...

Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant...

In the 2020 US Presidential election, major news desks called the election for Joe Biden in the week following the November election. Despite this, a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result, such that...

Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a Nuclear Risk tournament. Most of...

Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with a person of the year, ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.

Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in...

On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The JFK assassination not only led to countless...

From Fox News,

A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former...

Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone...

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?
• Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?

Republican Congresspeople Ted Cruz and Jim Jordan have both publicly discussed the...

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt...

In the past, US presidents ran on the tickets of various different parties. However, since the administration of Franklin Pierce starting in 1853, all US presidents have been members of either the Democratic or Republican parties. This has granted...

Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of the Electoral College. A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be selected by Congress if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes..

In every US presidential election from 1856 to 1908, the Republican and Democratic parties received the most or second-most popular votes. In 1912 former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt took second place, beating Republican nominee Taft. That...

To be president of the United States, one must be at least 35 years of age.

In Section 1 of Article II of the U.S. Constitution:

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this...

In the 2020 US presidential election, around 12 percent of self-identified blacks voted for Trump. Black conservatives seem to have been more visible and vocal recently, leading some to believe there is a non-trivial general trend within the black...