This market will resolve YES if on January 1 2026 Donald Trump is the President of the USA.

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Resolves 100% of Richie Torres is nominated as the Democratic Party candidate for the 2028 US presidential election

Resolves to Yes if Gretchen Whitmer is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028

Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2028

Resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028

Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2028

Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.

If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market...

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the U.S. federal government enacts a nationwide ban on the administration of mRNA vaccines. The ban must be officially announced through an executive order, federal...

The deal may face opposition that causes it to fail:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/investing/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal/index.html

Will the deal go through to completion?

Resolves according to reputable news reports or official government sources...

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office. Donald Trump served as the 45th President from 2017-2021 and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election. Trump has previously made comments...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025) is reported as positive by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The official advance...

Resolution: One or more US states succeeds from the union and war is declared between the two groups.

This question will also resolve yes if there is a coup d’état.

Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Martial law refers to federal martial law.

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a civil war occurs in the United States. For the purposes of this market, a civil war is defined as a large-scale armed conflict between organized groups within the...

The market will be considered resolved as "YES" if either the US or Israel formally declares war against Iran, or if Iran formally declares war against Israel or US. Only official statements issued by the respective governments will qualify....