To resolve YES, he must be contrite and use the words "I'm sorry", "I apologize" or one of the phrases listed below in reference to his performance in the Oval Office on February 28th. Some variation in wording is allowed and it is also admissible if...

NHI refers to human-level or greater intelligence that is not human and is not created by humans. This therefore excludes animals (at least based on our current understanding of all known species as they are not at human-level intelligence) and...

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Volodymyr Zelensky is still the official, internationally recognized President of Ukraine at any point after December 31, 2025.

The market resolves to NO if:

Zelensky is no longer president by...

Resolves Yes if there is a direct US military attack on Iranian soil before May.

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

This market will resolve to YES if at least one verifiable case occurs where a person who was a U.S. citizen at the time (either by birth or naturalization) is deported from the United States before January 1, 2029.

The market will resolve to NO if...

-Must be a kinetic attack (cyber doesn't count).

-Must be on Iranian soil, not on their assets elsewhere.

-Ships within Iranian national waters or Iranian planes flying above their territory or something like that would still count (so not...

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

Resolves YES if a state stops requiring people to be 21 years old to enjoy the same drinking rights as adults.

(Must be one of the current 50 states)

In close cases this will resolve according to the spirit of the question.

Background. According to the 2024 World Happiness Report, the United States ranked 23rd in the world for happiness, dropping out of the top 20 for the first time. The report is generally released on 20 March ("World Happiness Day") and is based on...

Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

Public acknowledgement by both sides

Major US government figures declaring a state of active war between the US and Iran

Multiple media outlets reporting on the US-Iran...

HKU5-CoV-2 is a newly discovered bat coronavirus identified by Chinese scientists that has demonstrated the ability to bind to human ACE2 receptors, similar to SARS-CoV-2. Currently, there are no reported human cases of HKU5-CoV-2.

Resolution...

Will resolve YES if Pete Hegseth resigns from his position as US Secretary of Defense for any reason before July 2025

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/13/nx-s1-5327141/trump-european-alcohol-tariff

Resolves yes if the United States has instituted 200% or greater tariffs on alcohol imports from the EU before May 1st.