This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023. The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis..

From NATO's site:

• In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024?

President Zelenskyy of Ukraine formally applied to join the European Union on Monday, February 28, 2022.

"We ask the European Union for Ukraine’s immediate...

The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

On August 6, 2024, Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast, advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days.

After 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain..

Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:

• In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine...

This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by December 31st, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...

The Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may...

Previous Questions on Metaculus

• Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?
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• Will Ukraine regain control...

Ukraine's de jure territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this...

In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of...

It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging).

The next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.

There...

Martial law was declared in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion.

Martial law was originally declared for 30 days. It has since been prolonged three times: by 30, 30, and 90 days respectively. Therefore, it would end on...

Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky is a Ukrainian politician who has been serving as the sixth president of Ukraine since 2019. He was formerly a comedian and actor. Since the start of the Russo-Ukraine conflict, numerous Ukrainian political parties...

Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused a...

On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV floated the idea of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin said:

If somebody’s actions threaten our...

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In 2023 Ukraine commenced a counteroffensive, though as of October 30, 2023, Ukraine's gains have been modest, and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

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Shortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law was signed, all consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended, including issuing and renewing passports.

In light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by Russian...

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a "special military operation" in Ukraine. This decision has been criticized internationally, particularly by Western countries, as an unprovoked invasion. Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on...