89%
The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.
5%
The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.
3%
The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers.
3%
The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
49%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.
29%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.
15%
Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.
5%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.
2%
Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) is defined by <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/annex-2-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29" target="_blank">WHO</a> as "an extraordinary event which is...

★★★★☆
Good Judgment
9%
Very unlikely

The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1873

Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as Israel.

Sufficiently widespread vaccination (and natural antibodies from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 151

There is an extensive history of laboratory biosecurity incidents, including at high-security laboratories. One paper by Manheim and Lewis (2021) found 71 incidents involving "either accidental or purposeful exposure to, or infection by, a highly...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 137
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 412
70%
Likely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?

There have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 191
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 173

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 136

On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern regarding the COVID-19 in China. They declared that the outbreak had become a pandemic on 2021-03-11 . The declarations are typically renewed...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 338
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 85
4%
Very unlikely

Note that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occurred, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for December 31, 2022, or 10:00 AM on January 05, 2023.

Please...

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 2%
Shares vol.: 779k

The United States is one of a handful of countries to still prohibit entry of unvaccinated foreign nationals. The vaccine requirement for foreign nationals was imposed by President Biden on October 25, 2021 by presidential proclamation and has no...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 12

A key part of the response to the next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen will be how quickly a vaccine can be successfully tested and authorized by FDA so that it can subsequently be widely deployed.

For context, during the COVID-19 pandemic there...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 129

A key part of the response to the next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen will be how quickly a treatment can be successfully tested and approved by FDA so that it can subsequently be widely deployed.

For context, during the COVID-19 pandemic there...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 78

As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 407
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 632
7%
Very unlikely

Please note: In the event that the CDC is no longer publishing daily case totals at the Expiration Time, the seven-day average shall be calculated by dividing the CDC-published weekly case totals by 7.. The resolution source is: undefined (undefined)

★★★☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 3%
Shares vol.: 168k

According to the New York Times, the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 232
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188

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