1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Carrick Flynn just announced his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created 6th congressional district.

Carrick is running as a Democrat.

***Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 198

A number of companies are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.

Two previous binary questions (for 2017 and 2021) have asked when flying cars...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 228

Space stations have offered platforms for science that can only be performed in microgravity, such as studying human physiology and psychology in space. International Space Station operations have been extended through 2030, and China’s almost...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 45
55%
About Even

On October 4, 2021, there were 56 Chinese warplanes that flew into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This was largest incursion since the island first started reporting such activity in September 2020, as reported by Statista, based on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 156
69%
Likely

Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth.

Consider this horrifying set of details from a 2002 Nature article:

Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 226
70%
Likely

The land speed record (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C ("Special Vehicles") flying start regulations...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 195

The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the fields of Kitty Hawk. The era of human air travel was born.

But skeptics abounded. Yes, we could...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 383

Along with SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, and others, Blue Origin is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com, is built around two main rocket technologies: the New Shepard and New Glenn...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80

In an effort to drive launch prices down, SpaceX and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying reusable launcher stages. After an initial testing period, SpaceX is currently routinely recovering, refurbishing, and reusing...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 43

The icy moons of the gas giant planets are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time in our solar system. Missions such as NASA’s Europa Clipper will be launched in the coming years to establish whether icy moons...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47

In an effort to drive launch prices down, SpaceX and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying multi-stage rockets, aiming towards full reusability of the all stages.

Another concept for reusable launchers are...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 26

2021 has seen the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" mission. Professional astronauts travelling to and living...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 74

The satellite launch market spans a range of satellite sizes, from tens of tons down to a few kg or less. "Small" satellites are generally considered to be 1200 kg and below. Most launches are larger capacity, with many small satellites flying as...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 23
40%
About Even

In February, 2013, a meteor scorched the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the key details:

A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 71
93%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
4%
The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
2%
Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.
< 1%
Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
< 1%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1

New York Times (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61

Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as Youtube, Netflix) and Vimeo already have the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
46%
Nick Ephgrave
30%
Mark Rowley
6%
Louisa Rolfe
4%
Matt Jukes
4%
Shaun Sawyer
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets