14%
Tim Scott
11%
Tulsi Gabbard
10%
Kristi Noem
7%
Elise Stefanik
6%
Ben Carson
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £451k
43%
Donald Trump
36%
Joe Biden
3%
Robert F.Kennedy Jr
2%
Michelle Obama
2%
Kamala Harris
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £13399k
91%
Donald Trump
1%
Nikki Haley
< 1%
Ron DeSantis
< 1%
Ben Carson
< 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
★★★☆☆
Betfair
Volume: £6201k
15%
Kristi Noem
14%
Tim Scott
13%
Tulsi Gabbard
9%
Vivek Ramaswamy
7%
JD Vance
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets

A number of companies are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.

Two previous binary questions (for 2017 and 2021) have asked when flying cars...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 288

Space stations have offered platforms for science that can only be performed in microgravity, such as studying human physiology and psychology in space. International Space Station operations have been extended through 2030, and China’s almost...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 92
93%
Very likely

In 2016, there was a lot of buzz about the potential use of airships as heavy-lift cargo aircraft. Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. had struck a deal with Straitline Aviation to provide airships for hauling ore concentrate, supplies, and personnel between...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 53
15%
Unlikely

On July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines announced that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In his book Extraterrestrial, Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as 'Oumuamua is "interstellar technology built by aliens".

Inspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded The Galileo Project in 2021 to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63
34%
Unlikely

On February 13, 2023, Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced plans for electric flying taxis in Dubai in 2026, which will include a network of vertiports connecting key areas of the city. See also Arab News - Dubai says flying...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108
8%
Very unlikely

Donald Trump, aiming for a 2024 presidential bid, proposed building up to 10 "freedom cities" on federal land, featuring futuristic concepts like flying cars.

Trump says he would host a contest for the public to design and then build “Freedom...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 62

The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the fields of Kitty Hawk. The era of human air travel was born.

But skeptics abounded. Yes, we could...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 448

On February 24th, 2022, shortly after the start of Russia-Ukraine war, Boris Johnson banned Russian airlines from flying to the UK. EU soon followed and implemented restrictions on flights between EU and Russia lasting until 2029. Russia soon...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35

From the Artemis 3 Wikipedia page

Artemis 3 (officially Artemis III) is planned as the first crewed Moon landing mission of the Artemis program and the first crewed flight of the Starship HLS lander. Artemis 3 is planned to be the second crewed...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 11

In an effort to drive launch prices down, SpaceX and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying reusable launcher stages. After an initial testing period, SpaceX is currently routinely recovering, refurbishing, and reusing...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108

The icy moons of the gas giant planets are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time in our solar system. Missions such as NASA’s Europa Clipper will be launched in the coming years to establish whether icy moons...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 60

In an effort to drive launch prices down, SpaceX and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying multi-stage rockets, aiming towards full reusability of the all stages.

Another concept for reusable launchers are...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 38
40%
About Even

In October 2021, at the 77th IATA Annual General Meeting in Boston, a resolution was passed by IATA member airlines committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050.

Exploratory work is ongoing to achieve flight...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 72
93%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
4%
The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
2%
Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.
< 1%
Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
< 1%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1

Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as Youtube, Netflix) and Vimeo already have the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 83