Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%....
"Today we're launching FrontierMath, a benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI. We collaborated with 60+ leading mathematicians to create hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging math problems, of which current AI...
Will an AI score well enough on the 2025 International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO) to earn a gold medal score (top ~50 human performance)? Resolves YES if this result is reported no later than 1 month after IMO 2025 (currently scheduled for July...
OpenAI has been expanding its product offerings with increasingly sophisticated AI models and tools.
The AI agent market is evolving rapidly, with companies exploring premium pricing models for advanced capabilities. Enterprise-grade AI solutions...
On December 20, 2024, OpenAI reported that their o3 reasoning model scored 25.2% on EpochAI's Frontier Math benchmark. For context, AI models like GPT-4 and Gemini score around 2%. Will a Chinese-made AI model surpass that score in 2025?
Resolution...
Re-releases don't count. If this movie goes straight to streaming without a large theatrical release then this resolves N/A.
See also:
Worldwide box office (1 B):
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m
Rotten...
Start date: April 9 , 2024
End date: April 9, 2026
Market with a shorter timeline:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/will-ai-be-able-to-write-compile-an-0508a14ba6a3?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)inspired from this tweet by Andrej...
Scott Alexander, a psychiatrist, writes the blog "Astral Codex Ten" (formerly "Slate Star Codex"), which focuses on topics like probability theory, cognitive science, and AI. As AI language models improve, they might generate blog posts resembling...
The market resolves YES if I am alive at January 1, 2026
The market resolves NO if I am dead by January 1, 2026, whether by suicide or other reasons.
This market resolves INDETERMINATE if I become Schodinger's human.
Context:
I am highly suicidal..
[image]Consider the proposed scenario in the attached image.
Assume that portals can have both velocity and acceleration without breaking (whatever physics of portals that might imply).
The top surface (with orange portal attached) moves towards...
Basically, will Trump (or anyone else) SUCCEED in making the election very different in some way? I am talking:
Trump running again (not just try to, not just a write in campaign, actually having his name on ballot papers)
Falsified election...
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...
Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore? Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing...