Metaforecast

Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?

39%

Unlikely

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 354

Volume: M199k

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?

53%

About Even

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 124

Volume: M57k

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

48%

About Even

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 112

Volume: M38k

Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

22%

Unlikely

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between 2024 Q3 and 2025 Q2 (inclusive). Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 84

Volume: M12k