70%
Likely

An economic recession is a general term describing a phase of declining economic activity in a region or country. A common definition is two or more quarters of declining GDP, though the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 633
47%
About Even

An economic recession is a general term describing a phase of declining economic activity in a region or country. A common definition is two or more quarters of declining GDP, though the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 917
8%
Very unlikely

As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and unemployment has skyrocketed. It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 479
22%
Unlikely

This market is whether the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) will declare that a recession occurred in 2022. They take into account many factors and don't necessarily use strict numerical metrics such as two consecutive quarters with...

★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $6.1k

Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely low interest rates throughout the economic upswing of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 34
33%
Unlikely

The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2023 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM...

★★☆☆☆
Kalshi
Spread: 5%
Shares vol.: 96
62%
Higher by 7.5% or more
36%
Higher by between 5.0% and 7.5%, inclusive
2%
Higher by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%
< 1%
Lower than 0.0%
< 1%
Higher by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
★★★★☆
Good Judgment
8%
Very unlikely

High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (CNBC, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 977
Forecasters: 137
4%
Very unlikely

As central banks increase interest rates amid recession fears, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) could continue to rise (NASDAQ, Yahoo!, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 325
Forecasters: 64
30%
Unlikely

Inflation, war, and other factors continue to be a drag on world economic growth (Economist, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IMF world GDP percent change...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 104
Forecasters: 86
64%
Likely

For background, policies of “inflation targeting” have dominated in developed country central banks for the last three or four decades, implicitly or explicitly. Under this policy, central banks explicitly aim for some target rate of inflation (or...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 56
20%
Unlikely

The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 65
42%
Between January 2023 and March 2023
21%
Between October 2022 and December 2022
19%
Between April 2023 and June 2023
10%
Between July 2023 and September 2023
9%
Not before October 2023
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 105
Forecasters: 38

US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing 3% from 2018-2019 and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 105

From Investopedia,

The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy’s active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who are employed or actively seeking employment divided by the total noninstitutionalized,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 75

The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers.

In 2020, this historical trend...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 85

Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 150

Despite efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, the general trend in CO2 emissions still appears to be increasing. Certain events like recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic caused local peaks. In the case of the 1929 Great depression, the 1929 peak of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 393

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. In response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 697
24%
Unlikely

In the United States, the agency primarily responsible for maintaining full employment and stable prices is the Federal Reserve System or simply "the Fed", the country's central bank. After two years of zero-interest rate policy in the face of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 42

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