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Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 952
Volume: M881k
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term. A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 147
Volume: M66k
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.

For a derivative market that resolves sooner,...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 1.5k
Volume: M1814k
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 162
Volume: M82k
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between 2024 Q3 and 2025 Q2 (inclusive). Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 112
Volume: M28k