An economic recession is a general term describing a phase of declining economic activity in a region or country. A common definition is two or more quarters of declining GDP, though the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses...

An economic recession is a general term describing a phase of declining economic activity in a region or country. A common definition is two or more quarters of declining GDP, though the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses...

As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and unemployment has skyrocketed. It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less...

This market is whether the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) will declare that a recession occurred in 2022. They take into account many factors and don't necessarily use strict numerical metrics such as two consecutive quarters with...

Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely low interest rates throughout the economic upswing of...

The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2023 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM...

High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (CNBC, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December...

As central banks increase interest rates amid recession fears, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) could continue to rise (NASDAQ, Yahoo!, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as...

Inflation, war, and other factors continue to be a drag on world economic growth (Economist, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IMF world GDP percent change...

For background, policies of “inflation targeting” have dominated in developed country central banks for the last three or four decades, implicitly or explicitly. Under this policy, central banks explicitly aim for some target rate of inflation (or...

The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this...

US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing 3% from 2018-2019 and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV...

From Investopedia,

The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy’s active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who are employed or actively seeking employment divided by the total noninstitutionalized,...

The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers.

In 2020, this historical trend...

Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these...

Despite efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, the general trend in CO2 emissions still appears to be increasing. Certain events like recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic caused local peaks. In the case of the 1929 Great depression, the 1929 peak of...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. In response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and...

In the United States, the agency primarily responsible for maintaining full employment and stable prices is the Federal Reserve System or simply "the Fed", the country's central bank. After two years of zero-interest rate policy in the face of the...