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US Recession in 2025?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2025?

This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2024, so the ones that count would be:

2024 Q4 negative Q1 negative

Q1 negative Q2 negative

Q2 negative...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 51
Volume: M11k
United States Recession by End of Q3?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive negative quarters. Based on 'Third Estimate' figures.

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M2.7k
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive negative quarters.

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Based on 'Third Estimate' figures.

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 41
Volume: M10k
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M461
Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if the Chinese economy has two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth by the end of 2025.

Jul 29, 8:09am: Will China'a economy enter a recession by 2025? → Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025?

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 182
Volume: M37k
Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12
Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M3.4k
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
41%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-13

A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES....

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 881
Volume: M719k
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
67%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term. A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 65
Volume: M8.4k
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.

For a derivative market that resolves sooner,...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 1.5k
Volume: M1766k
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 158
Volume: M79k
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 237
Volume: M119k
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between 2024 Q3 and 2025 Q2 (inclusive). Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea..

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 106
Volume: M22k
Do professional economic forecasters expect a US recession (two quarters negative GDP growth) to begin in 2025?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducts a quarterly survey of professional economic forecasters.

The survey is conducted immediately following the Bureau of Economic Analysis issuing its advance GDP estimate for the previous quarter...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 94
Volume: M112k