Australia is the world's 20th largest economy by PPP-adjusted GDP, and has suffered only one recession (during the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991.
During the 2021–2022 inflation surge, the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase interest rates in...
This is a market on whether the NBER will declare that the US economy was in a recession during 2023. The deadline in March 31, 2024, as the NBER can sometimes declare recessions retrospectively. This market can also resolve early if a recession is...
Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely low interest rates throughout the economic upswing of...
It appears quite likely that developed countries will frequently find themselves with interest rates stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in coming decades. Indeed, the Eurozone never truly left the ZLB after the Great Recession, and the United...
It appears quite likely that developed countries will frequently find themselves with interest rates stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in coming decades. Indeed, the Eurozone never truly left the ZLB after the Great Recession, and the United...
Related Question on Metaculus:
- What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?
Larry Summers said
The Fed’s current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and...
Related Question on Metaculus:
- What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?
Larry Summers said
The Fed’s current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and...
Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these...
Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet.
However, as electric...
As the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (Yahoo Finance, CNBC). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls)...
From Investopedia,
The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy’s active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who are employed or actively seeking employment divided by the total noninstitutionalized,...
Economic historians have often emphasized the role economic growth plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had...
US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing 3% from 2018-2019 and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV...
The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers.
In 2020, this historical trend...
From Kelley Blue Book:
Cash for Clunkers is shorthand for the Car Allowance Rebate System. This government incentive program passed in response to the 2008 recession to spur auto sales. The plan gave participants up to $4,500 for their old running...
Economic historians have often emphasized the role economic growth plays as perhaps the most important phenomenon in human history: economic growth is what separates 21st century humanity from our hunter-gatherer ancestors who had no technology and...
According to Wikipedia:
The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian mathematical geophysicist...
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