MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
Will SCOTUS find that TN Bill 1 prohibiting gender-affirming medical care is unconstitutional? [U.S. v. Skrmetti]
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves "Yes" if SCOTUS finds that Tennessee Senate Bill 1, which prohibits all medical treatments intended to allow “a minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity inconsistent with the minor’s sex” or to treat “purported discomfort or...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M3.3k
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M2.0k
Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives, and also removed from the office of the US presidency.

For that to happen, the House of Representatives would need to pass articles of impeachment, and the...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 35
Volume: M5.2k
Will anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat? [READ PINNED COMMENT]
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

See this article for context:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/

Resolves YES if Michael Waltz, one of his staff members, or anyone else implicated in the war plans...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 626
Volume: M167k
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
46%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore? Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 532
Volume: M168k