Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.

Currently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): "global humanitarianism", "risk tolerance and patience", and "action in the face of humanity".

More broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under "effective altruist principles" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the candidate who wins the greatest number of votes in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.
Candidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.
Should no such primary take place in New Hampshire in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve as No. 
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. 
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.


Donald Trump

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Chris Christie

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Mike Pence

Doug Burgum

Who will win the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?

One way of dividing the space of possible futures is to consider whether transformative AI will lead to a singleton, which would be a huge change in the world order and a huge concentration of power, or a multipolar world, which would still be radically different to our current world (because of the prevalence of powerful AI), but which would look more like our present day situation of “there are different groups of people with different goals and the ability to realize some subset of their goals”. Whether we end up in a singleton world or a multipolar world is one of the most important questions when considering an AI-driven future (e.g., [Takahashi, 2023](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14478#)).

The [singleton hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/fut/singleton)—that humanity's descendents would become a singleton—was first put forward by [Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom). Bostrom thinks a singleton is more likely than not.

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it  remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F" width="640" height="480"></iframe>

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 ([HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx), [HHS.gov - End of COVID Public Health Emergency](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/05/09/fact-sheet-end-of-the-covid-19-public-health-emergency.html)). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 ([Trump White House Archives](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/)). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count ([PHE.gov - Public Health Service Act](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/planning/authority/Pages/default.aspx), [Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act](https://ballotpedia.org/National_Emergencies_Act)). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.
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Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government?

Moldova and Romania speak the same language and [reunification has been a possibility since independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unification_of_Moldova_and_Romania#Impact_of_a_unification_scenario). This Jan 2022 [article](https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/assessing-a-possible-moldova-romania-unification/) quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in both NATO and the EU, so by joining Romania, Moldova could essentially shortcut the membership requirements for both organisations at the cost of giving up sovereignty. This bargain looks a lot more attractive now that the perceived risk of Russian invasion is higher. I note Metaculus already has [a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9943/russia-recognize-transnistria-in-2022/) on whether Russia will recognise Moldova's breakaway region Transnistria this year.

Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by [13 UN member states](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan), and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. [Opinion polling](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963) in Taiwan has generally shown a preference for maintaining the ambiguous status quo as long as possible. Various presidents of Taiwan have stated that a formal declaration is unnecessary because Taiwan is already independent. In the PRC, a formal declaration of Taiwanese independence is often cited as a "red line", raising the possibility of invasion.

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, [the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct](https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-ethics-regarding-representative-76). Santos has not resigned, but has announced he will not seek reelection at the end of his term, at the end of the current session. Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds majority vote, a high threshold historically rarely met. Only [five members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_expelled,_censured,_or_reprimanded) have been expelled in the House's history, typically for severe misconduct like treason or bribery.

Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?

Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.

One way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”), policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

An important concept in economic development is [Financial Inclusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_inclusion): the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services.   One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a population with a bank account.  According to the [World Bank](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/account-at-financial-institution?tab=chart&country=~NGA), 39.7% of Nigerians had a bank account in 2017, an increase from 29.7% in 2011. 


[Motta, V. 2020](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-018-0082-9) found a positive relationship between access to external finance and labor productivity of small/medium businesses.

In July 2019 Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, [set a goal](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf) to reach 95% of the population with a bank account by 2024.

Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?

Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html) to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.


Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.

Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.

Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.

Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs? 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):

> P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.

According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.

In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy,  according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).

Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?

In 2020, [Moody's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody's_Investors_Service) [downgraded](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-the-UKs-ratings-to-Aa3-outlook-stable--PR_434172) the UK's long-term [credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating) to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.

Since 2013, the UK has been [downgraded from the highest rating](https://countryeconomy.com/ratings/uk) by each of the [Big Three credit rating agencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(credit_rating_agencies)).

As of September 2022, there is concern that the UK's credit rating [may be downgraded further](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/958049/what-happens-if-the-uks-credit-rating-is-downgraded) in the wake of [rapid inflation in Europe](https://www.ft.com/content/0a7d5bba-4355-4e4c-9f2a-d42b2298fed3) and [a warning from the IMF](https://www.ft.com/content/06962055-6b3d-4712-814f-acea3cb9e082) concerning the new Government's ["mini-budget"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_United_Kingdom_mini-budget). This comes accompanied by [strong](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/28/moodys-threatens-downgrade-uk-credit-rating-kwasi-kwartengs/) [warnings](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/moodys-warns-uk-unfunded-tax-cuts-are-credit-negative-2022-09-28/) from Moody's about the impact of British fiscal policy.

All three of the Big Three credit rating agencies use [variants of letter grading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating) to indicate risk that a country will default on its debt.

Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?

The gold standard was a monetary system where the value of a country's currency was directly tied to a specific quantity of gold. Under this system, paper money and coins were convertible into a fixed amount of gold, creating stability in currency values. The United States adopted the gold standard in the 19th century, and it played a significant role in shaping the country's monetary policy until it was effectively abandoned in the 20th century.

Key historical milestones related to the gold standard in the United States:

19th Century Adoption: The United States officially adopted the gold standard in 1834 with the passage of the Coinage Act. This set the price of gold at $20.67 per ounce.

Civil War Era: During the Civil War (1861-1865), the U.S. government temporarily suspended the gold standard to finance the war effort, leading to the issuance of "greenback" paper money. The gold standard was reinstated after the war.

Bimetallism: In the late 19th century, there was a debate over bimetallism, which would allow both gold and silver to back the currency. This debate culminated in the 1896 presidential election, where William McKinley (pro-gold standard) defeated William Jennings Bryan (pro-silver standard).

20th Century Abandonment: The United States effectively abandoned the gold standard during the Great Depression in the 1930s. President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933, requiring individuals and institutions to turn in their gold holdings to the government in exchange for paper currency. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 devalued the dollar in terms of gold.

Bretton Woods System: After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 established a modified gold standard where the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. This system lasted until 1971 when President Richard Nixon ended the dollar's convertibility into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system.

Current Monetary System: Since 1971, the United States has operated on a fiat currency system, where the value of the dollar is not directly tied to a physical commodity like gold. The Federal Reserve controls the money supply and adjusts interest rates to manage the economy.

The question of whether the United States will return to the gold standard is a complex and highly debated topic. Advocates of a return to the gold standard argue that it would provide greater monetary stability and prevent excessive inflation. Critics, on the other hand, argue that it would limit the flexibility of monetary policy in responding to economic crises.

Factors that would influence the likelihood and timing of a return to the gold standard include:

- Economic conditions, including inflation rates and the stability of the U.S. dollar.

- Political dynamics and the views of policymakers in Washington.

- International monetary developments and agreements.

- Public opinion and support for the gold standard.

- Advances in technology and changes in the global economy.

Will the United States return to the gold standard before 2050?

>"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities." ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))


The US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. "Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S." ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.


**See also:**

* [By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)

By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?

Large language models have established a new state of the art in several areas of natural language processing. It is possible that they will also be widely accepted as the state of the art for machine translation (MT) within the year.

Every year, the MT community compares the quality of research systems at the Conference on Machine Translation. The findings of the shared task on general-purpose MT are taken as an indicator of the current state of the art in MT.

Previous technological paradigm shifts have been reflected in the results of the shared task. For example, the [2016 shared task](https://aclanthology.org/W16-2301/) found that for the first time, end-to-end neural networks have become state of the art in MT.

System submissions for [this year's iteration of the General Machine Translation shared task](http://www2.statmt.org/wmt23/translation-task.html) were submitted in July 2023 and the results of the human evaluation will be presented on December 6–7, 2023. It is conceivable that the majority of language pairs will be won by submissions based on a large language model, which would once again represent a technological paradigm shift for MT.

List of language pairs that will be evaluated:
* Chinese to/from English
* German to/from English
* Hebrew to/from English
* Japanese to/from English
* Russian to/from English
* Ukrainian to/from English
* Czech to Ukrainian
* English to Czech

Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?

The 2023-24 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 20 June 2024 ([NBA - Key Dates](https://www.nba.com/news/key-dates), [NBA - Standings](https://www.nba.com/standings)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
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Boston Celtics

Denver Nuggets

Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Milwaukee Bucks

Phoenix Suns

Another team

Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals?

Russia&#39;s war in Ukraine continues, though Russia floated the idea of talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in October 2023 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/vladimir-putin-cannot-keep-funding-his-war-for-ever), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoigu-beijing-ukraine-peace-talks-1839149), [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-peace-talks-united-states/32670865.html)). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
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Before 1 March 2024

Between 1 March 2024 and 15 June 2024

Between 16 June 2024 and 30 September 2024

Not before 1 October 2024

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Amid a deal to relocate American prisoners in Iran, the US is warning vessels to stay away from Iranian waters to avoid seizure by Iranian forces as tensions regarding the country&#39;s nuclear program continue ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/persian-gulf-tensions-hormuz-iran-us-shipping-6d33ae164cb5f89a0347634b2ed45ae7), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/americans-imprisoned-iran-prisoner-exchange-deal-rcna99105), [US Naval Institute](https://news.usni.org/2023/08/11/100-marines-sailors-ready-to-ride-commercial-ships-in-zone-defense-against-iran), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-said-to-be-slowing-some-nuclear-enrichment-diluting-high-grade-stockpile/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran&#39;s national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count, and a fatality must occur during the question&#39;s open period to count.
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Before 1 January 2024

Between 1 January 2024 and 31 May 2024

Between 1 June 2024 and 31 October 2024

Not before 1 November 2024

When will there next be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

A [tsunami](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tsunami.html) is a wave or series of waves generated by the displacement of water from an energetic event such as an earthquake. Tsunamis can be enormously destructive and cause mass casualty events; the deadliest documented tsunami, in the Indian Ocean on 26 December, 2004, killed more than 200,000 people.

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: 

* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders."

* "In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack." 

* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.

The only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.

Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?

*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*

It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.
 
Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.

By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.

There are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.

Secondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.

Moreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted "[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)".

There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:

> We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”

However, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a "[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.

Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?

In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,

> a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.

The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:

> The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]

> Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.

Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?

Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). 

Given these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C.
But [there is also a non-negligible chance]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.

In particular, [it has been argued that]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.

The estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) 
>The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated [3.1 million square km](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/) were located in Brazil.  Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the [PRODES survey](http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes) on the amount of annual deforestation in [Amazônia Legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaz%C3%B4nia_Legal), the nine Brazillian states which contain the Brazillian Amazon Forest.  Deforestation in the Amazon fell from 27,700 km$^{2}$ in 2004 to 4,500 km$^{2}$, and has since risen under the [Jair Bolsonaro Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro).

Brazil also contains the [Atlantic Forest](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/), 92% of which was [estimated to be within Brazil](awsassets.panda.org/downloads/documento_fvs_baja.pdf) in 2017.  While an estimated 17% of the Amazon has been deforested since European contact, [92%](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/) of the Atlantic Forest has been deforested, from 1,300,000 km$^{2}$ to 100,000 km$^{2}$ in 2020.

In 2008, delegates from Brazil joined 66 other countries in pledging support for the World Wide Fund for Nature's goal to reach net zero deforestation by 2020.  In April 2021, [Bolsonaro pledged](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/brazil-must-cut-deforestation-15-20-year-reach-2030-goal-says-vice-president-2021-04-16/) to US President Joe Biden to cut illegal deforestation and reach net zero deforestation by 2030.

Will Brazil reach net zero deforestation before 2031?

*Related questions on Metaculus:*


* [If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)


* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)


* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)


* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)

----

[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:


>"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders."


> "In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack."


> "In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack."


The only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945.  However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)).  Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Tourism levels in Dubai have recovered from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has implemented new policies to attract for visitors to the emirate ([BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-64142652), [Skift](https://skift.com/2023/01/25/middle-east-tourism-set-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels-in-2023/)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism ([Dubai Tourism](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/)). In 2021, 7.28 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 ([Dubai Tourism - December 2021 Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-dec-2021), [Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/annual-visitor-report-2019), [Dubai Tourism - Research and Insights](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights)).
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Fewer than 10.0 million

Between 10.0 and 13.0 million, inclusive

More than 13.0 but fewer than 16.0 million

Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive

More than 19 million but fewer than 22.0 million

22.0 million or more

How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2023, according to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism?

In the past, [US presidents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) ran on the tickets of various different parties. However, since the administration of Franklin Pierce starting in 1853, all US presidents have been members of either the Democratic or Republican parties. This has granted these two parties an effective duopoly over American politics.

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

*Related Question on Metaculus:*

* [When will the world create the first Trillionaire?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/)

----

In early April 2022, [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#437dcdab3d78) lists the wealthiest people in the world: Elon Musk ($280B), Jeff Bezos ($180B), Bernard Arnault & family ($170B), Bill Gates ($130B), Warren Buffett ($130B).

Elon Musk is an entrepreneur, investor, and business magnate. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla; founder of The Boring Company; and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$280 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world.

Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?

As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others ([Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/), [US News &amp; World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-21/trump-faces-200-000-bond-order-not-to-make-threats-in-georgia-election-case), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/08/trump-on-possible-gag-order-pound-sand-00110357), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/special-counsel-asks-narrow-gag-order-trump-election-interference-case-rcna105365), [Cornell - Gag Order](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gag_order)). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court ([Cornell - Contempt of Court](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/contempt_of_court)). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., [US News &amp; World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-02-14/judge-upholds-donald-trump-contempt-order-sanctions-in-new-york-civil-probe)).
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Between 22 September 2023 and 14 January 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant?

According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.

[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides.

Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?

Georgia is a former Soviet republic that declared its independence in 1991 and has since pursued a pro-Western course, aspiring to join the European Union and NATO. However, Georgia’s territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Georgia in 2008. Russia also considers Georgia to be within its sphere of influence and opposes its integration with the West.

Irakli Garibashvili is a Georgian politician and a former business executive who has served as the prime minister of Georgia since 22 February 2021. Garibashvili has tried to balance Georgia’s Western aspirations with pragmatic engagement with Russia, while avoiding direct confrontation or provocation. He has expressed his commitment to joining NATO and the EU, but has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, which is Georgia’s largest trading partner. He has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and supported its territorial integrity, but has also refrained from joining the Western sanctions against Russia. He has called for dialogue and cooperation with Russia on resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but has also rejected any compromise on Georgia’s sovereignty.

As of Spring 2023, considerable political uncertainty existed in Georgia stemming from the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2020. The opposition parties have refused to recognize the results and have boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections and electoral reforms. The crisis has led to mass protests, violence, arrests and international mediation efforts. Garibashvili has agreed to some concessions, such as releasing some political prisoners and promising electoral reforms, but has also rejected some demands of the opposition, such as early elections or power-sharing arrangements.

The human rights situation in Georgia has deteriorated, with increasing attacks on civil society activists, journalists, opposition figures and minority groups. Garibashvili has been accused of failing to protect human rights defenders and media freedom, cracking down on dissenting voices and enabling a climate of impunity for perpetrators of violence.

Georgia's next parliamentary elections, which will elect the 150 members of the Parliament of Georgia for a four-year term, are to be held on 26 October 2024.

Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?

On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.


Yes. Hernandez killed himself.

No. Someone else killed Hernandez.

Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?

The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. ](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) If a US state successfully secedes by 2070, which ones will secede?

Will at least one US state secede by 2070?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):

> P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.

According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.

In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy,  according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).

Will renewable energy contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, Hamas officially announces a surrender in its conflict with Israel. "Surrender" refers to a formal acknowledgment of defeat, entailing a cessation of all military and hostile activities against Israel, and this must be communicated through an official statement recognized by international authorities or bodies.

The market will resolve to "No" if Hamas does not officially declare such a surrender by December 31, 2023. If the event of surrender occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately.

Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Hamas surrender in 2023?

Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:

* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange 

* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)

For example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on "[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)". 

Potentially useful resources:

* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)

* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)

* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)

* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

The [Kuril Islands Dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute) is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855.  Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their competing claims over the Kuril Islands.

Although attempts at a peace agreement have been pursued by both parties through the 2010s, the [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) escalated animosity between Japan and Russia.  In [March 2022](https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7650538/japan-renews-island-dispute-with-russia/) Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi re-affirmed the Japanese claim to the Kuril Islands.  Later in March, Russian armed forces [performed military drills](https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/c0868f95954a-russia-starts-military-drill-on-disputed-islands-off-japan.html) with 3,000 personnel in the Kuril Islands area.

Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most [“consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization”.](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a [coup](https://www.businessinsider.com/military-coup-russia-likely-anger-grows-toward-putin-ex-aide-2023-1?r=US&IR=T) raised by many.

[Analysts](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) are [divided](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-political-regimes/) on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin’s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy.

> What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today. 

> Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again. 

How Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide.

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). 

In a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:

> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.

In a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he loved his time at OpenAI.

Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?

The [Department of Homeless Services (DHS)](https://www.nyc.gov/site/dhs/about/inside-dhs.page) is a New York City agency dedicated to preventing homelessness, addressing street homelessness, providing temporary shelter, and connecting individuals to suitable housing through collaboration with not-for-profit partners. With an annual budget of over $2 billion and 2,000 employees, DHS aims help clients transition from shelters to self-sufficiency. The agency's critical objectives include preventing households from becoming homeless, reducing street homelessness, ensuring temporary shelter availability, increasing client engagement, maintaining shelter safety, and reducing shelter stays to promote stable community housing. According to the [DHS data](https://data.world/ian/nyc-department-of-homeless-services-daily-report/workspace/file?filename=DHS_Daily_Report.csv), NYC homeless individuals in shelter (run by the DHS) in 2022 ranged from 45,213 on January 1 to 66,334 on Dec 31. As of writing this question in late March 2023, the low for 2023 was 66,564 on Jan 1, with a high of 72,522 on March 28. 

This increase in individuals using DHS homeless shelters has been acknowledged by the [local government](https://citylimits.org/2023/01/17/nycs-homeless-shelter-population-ballooned-in-2022-how-will-leaders-address-the-crisis-this-year/), which has promised to increase funding to [homeless services](https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&oq=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i546l2j0i546i649.4126j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8).

> The dramatic uptick last year was fueled, experts and officials say, by the ongoing financial impact of the pandemic, the end of statewide eviction protections last year, rising rents, understaffed government agencies, a shortage of truly affordable housing and the arrival since last spring of more than 40,000 asylum seekers from the southern border that lawmakers say has strained the city's resources.

> In recent months, Mayor Adams has emphasized the uptick in migrants seeking shelter as the main force driving the city's homeless population, prompting the administration to open 74 emergency shelters in addition to the HERRC sites, including a short-lived, barracks-style tent facility on Randall's Island.

> "We are now seeing more people arrive than we have ever seen—averaging over 400 people each day this last week, with 835 asylum seekers arriving on one single day alone, the largest single day arrival we’ve seen to date. All this is pushing New York City to the brink," the mayor said Saturday, as he prepared to travel to El Paso, Texas to meet with local leaders along the border firsthand. "We are at our breaking point."

Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?

In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.

On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)

Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?

Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. 

Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. 

There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.

Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?

On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some correlates of protection as a result of receiving the BCG [are unclear from studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601272/) and it may have limited efficacy in [certain contexts](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.778028/full).

[TB vaccine candidates](https://www.tbvi.eu/what-we-do/pipeline-of-vaccines/) hold potential for future immunisation programmes. Recent years have shown our ability to more rapidly develop drugs than in the past, and this has understandably led to a renewed interest in [mRNA-based solutions for TB](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216257/). 

The Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative published in their [2021 report](https://www.tbvi.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021_pipeline_TB_vaccines_final.pdf) that VPM1002, GamTBvac, M72/AS01E, MIP, and MTBVAC are in phase III trials (typically the last phase of testing before data for a medical intervention is sent away for approval to a regulatory body). The completion times reach until 2027,  but this is no guarantee of their efficacy or safety.

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

[Rich Communication Services (RCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Communication_Services) is a protocol allowing more robust and comprehensive support for texting and file sharing, especially for individuals with different phone models and carriers. It is largely seen as a successor to SMS and MMS technologies.

There has been a great deal of pressure from regulators, competitors, and consumers for Apple to adopt RCS, [which they have consistently rejected in favor of their proprietary iMessage service.](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/7/23342243/tim-cook-apple-rcs-imessage-android-iphone-compatibility)

Adopting RCS would allow iPhone users to communicate via text message with other phone users in a more customer-friendly manner.

Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?

[Dedollarisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation) refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.

One way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an [alternative to the US dollar](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-been-teaming-up-to-reduce-reliance-on-the-dollar-heres-how-its-going/) in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%).

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/). As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?

The federal criminal case ***United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta*** will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.

The case brings [37 charges](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/) against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related to the Espionage Act, 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements.

The case brings [6 charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) against Nauta, including 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice and witholding documents, and one count of making false statements.

Both Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty.

-----

[Waltine Nauta](https://www.bbc.com/news/65862112) was with the US Navy and stationed as a valet in the White House during Trump’s presidency, and then at Mar-a-Lago.  After Trump lost the 2020 election, Nauta left the military to work for a Trump political action committee, and has been working for Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

According to the [indictment](https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf), Nauta moved classified documents under Trumps direction, observed and photographed documents he saw were classified, and lied about it to investigators.

[Aileen Cannon](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/10/who-is-aileen-cannon-florida-judge-trump-documents-case) is a Trump appointed judge and has been assigned to the classified documents case.  

Previously she has [ruled in the former president’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html) when his legal team argued that he retained his executive privilege after leaving office, maintaining the right to shield at least some of the documents from review. She appointed a special master in the case and temporarily halted FBI access to classified documents taken in a court-approved search.  Her ruling slowed down the government’s investigation, but a conservative-leaning federal appeals court later struck down her decision.

Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in "United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta"?

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[Blake Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)) is a Republican politician and a candidate for the United States Senate in Arizona.  He has a close relationship with tech billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), and wrote the book Zero to One based on notes he took from Thiel's class at Stanford, where Masters got both his BA and JD.  Masters [resigned](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1504166071632162816) from his posts running Thiel Capital and the Thiel Foundation to run in Arizona.  Masters is staunchly opposed to critical race theory, and supports a stronger border and the reduction of illegal immigration.  He is also tough on crime, and has [appeared on Tucker Carlson's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyKjUiehzQA) to denounce the increase on crime rates, which he has blamed on Democratic Party politicians like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.  Masters is also a suspicious of large tech companies, much like Thiel, and views them as stifling innovation and as pushing a left-wing political ideology.  Masters has also famously stated ["you should be able to raise a family on one single income"](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1453754258218651648).  While not alleging fraud on Election Day in 2020, Masters [released](https://theweek.com/talking-points/1006992/blake-masters-disgraceful-video) a video critical of the coverage of Hunter Biden's laptop and of voter registration policies.

Masters has received [significant attention](https://jewishinsider.com/2022/03/blake-masters-wants-to-take-back-arizona/) and both [praise](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/11/the-blake-masters-vision/) and [criticism](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/07/15/meet-peter-thiels-military-industrial-candidate/).  In particular, some on the left have criticized Peter Thiel for his [opposition to democracy](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/06/peter-thiel.html) and his links with the neoreactionary thinker [Curtis Yarvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Yarvin).

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.
Candidates who do not meet the above-stated criteria for either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be "Independent." 
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PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
