75%
Likely

Wikipedia:

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 565
30%
Unlikely

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021:

By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 114
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 272
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Cris Ericson has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization candidate in Vermont. Cannabis is now legal under VT state law, but not under federal laws.

Cris...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35
79%
Likely

The CA Senate Primary is scheduled for March 5, 2024, in which the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Schiff moves onto the US general election...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 253
60%
Republican
40%
Democratic

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed...

★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 47k
62%
Democratic
32%
Republican
7%
Independent
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 72k
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 253
6%
Very unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a vacancy in one or both of the seats for United States Senator from Pennsylvania between February 16 and December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a Senator from...

★★☆☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
66%
Republican
34%
Democratic

Which party will control the United States Senate after the 2024 elections?

★★☆☆☆
Smarkets
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets
3%
Very unlikely

The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 declined to hear a legal case challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the opinion denying certification (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 13
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The US Supreme Court in June declined to hear a legal case challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the opinion denying certification (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 442
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Twitter has seen the departure of senior executives, advertising pauses by clients, and other developments since Elon Musk took the company private in late October 2022, with Musk mentioning the possibility of bankruptcy for the firm (CNBC, US News...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 974
Forecasters: 199
3%
Very unlikely

In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern," over privacy concerns...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 189
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In its article Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:

Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1493

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