This resolves positive if a future Republican president chooses a replacement for Sonia Sotomayor. For example, if Trump wins the coming election, Sotomayor leaves the court in 2026, and Trump chooses her replacement, it will resolve positive.

It...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth becomes the first member of President Donald Trump's second-term cabinet to be dismissed, fail, or resign. The market will resolve to "No" if any other cabinet member is...

See this article for context:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/

Resolves YES if Michael Waltz, one of his staff members, or anyone else implicated in the war plans...

Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore? Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing...